have plenty to fill glass with like you... am sure my reputation goes before me.. but currently banned from drinking(and smoking) by doctors so very grumpy and perhaps overly pessimistic as a result. I am of an age to be cognisant of Argentina's actions since c 1975 (I stress that individually the Argentinians are wonderful people and company) hence my concern for ECHO.
China may be back to production but the supply chain is far from secured- it is fine producing but if your market has collapsed you merely end up with a stockpile like the infamous butter mountain. Once this hits south America, and especially Africa and India , let alone Indonesia and Phillipines in the same way it has hit China/Europe and US - God help all when it hits the refugee camps all over the world-we will alas see that it is at least a 2 year recession and the same sort of impact on economies as the world wars; our grandchildren and even great grand children will still be paying back the borrowings in the same way that the UK only finished paying back the loans from the US from 1939 to the fifties during Gordon Brown's Prime Ministership.
still invested MrMarky 12p average so you could say out of the game although still hold near worthless shares, but still very interested in all of the Holy Trinity in which I hold shares. My main point was that the Argentinian government cannot start pumping in the billions that western and Asian governments have to protect the economy and workers. In an already fragile democracy that is dangerous. I take your point about gas, but do not be under any illusions that the government there would hesitate to nationalise all gas supplies to ensure citizens get the supplies they need, nor to nationalise all oil production for export to earn a few bob at whatever price oil is. And it is only just starting there.
If put into shutdown even Apple would only have a finite time to stay in existence- longer than most but not for eternity; however rich the guy and his company are they are the same, and whilst no doubt he has massive influence with the government , he will not be immune to world markets nor the possibility of nationalisation nor a coup- remember Argentina have defaulted twice on loans in the last 30 years.
ECHO are a tiny part of this.....but it is usually the little guys who are the first to be screwed- nationalise the assets of all foreign firms first for example so our 19% and licences go.
I hope I am wrong but have been warning about investing in Argentina for a long time; I hoped we would have made discoveries and sold out long ago- It was not to be.
Cash burn is crucial- you say ride the storm, but we do not have the cash to ride the storm; any stoppage in production/sales kills us.
We do not know if the deferments have been agreed; cheap way to pick up the assets if you are able to look long term...…
If restrictions are extended as per rest of the world(repeat Argentina just starting to experience pandemic) drill in H2 will not happen.
Whether we can sell Bolivian licence to neighbours has to be top priority at the moment as unless we get cash in we will not survive, and I do not believe a cash raise via loans or shares would succeed in the current climate
glass half full/empty? I suggest it is currently left in the cabinet with nothing to fill it with
Also thank you for all the e mails I have had from SAG members. Sorry for not replying I did not have access to the phone. I will reply to every individual during the week. I apologise in advance if they are short- I am very grumpy as am currently banned from drinking and smoking, and without wannabe 5 I can't even lie back and think of Scotland whilst she...….. gives me a bed wash...…..got to work on Nurse Gladys
MrMarky- in normal times I would agree. But the first restrictive measures just been announced by the Argentine government, and the economy there has no capacity for bail outs or government intervention. Our majority partner is an Argentinian company, oil prices on which our projections are at least 50% based for income have collapsed, we have no guarantees that the deferred payments will be agreed, and most importantly we have little or no cash reserves with which to ride out the storm. Argentina not only has a history of coups, but also of default on loans when it gets tough, and of nationalising assets when they need to.
However much potential is in Tepi I seriously doubt ECHO will be the ones to benefit.
Sorry for the bleak outlook but I would suggest it is now (or soon will be) all out of Echo's control
I received a very kind message from Sarah when I went into hospital, and to her credit suggesting we could reschedule the conference call. I have e mailed her back suggesting that this could happen either next week or the week after. I will update when I hear, but in these uncertain times (our Italian lawyer has contracted the virus and hope he comes through) I would ask for forbearance from all if things are delayed further.
DDBoy- for sure and it will be a crawl(on the way home anyway) between fatcat and the fatcat brewery tap where you can see their brewery. Probably 2021...….
Very sorry all. I was hospitalized for the last fortnight (not virus related) and arrived back home today. I have some recuperation to do but will try to e mail members and post on here towards the end of the week. Apologies
Paul- I have posted my personal views about Echo; I obviously cannot speak for others. Nor can I speak for others views on other posters.
As a purely personal view Wizard Taffy's posts have mostly been well researched and sensible (and I confess to O/T discussions about wine and Rugby during quiet times ); often angst (whilst it makes us feel better at the time) comes back to haunt us.
I hope you have a good week
Mr Marky and v2- they will get it and are less likely to be able to be able to cope with it- admittedly that is merely a surmise. However I will go back to the 2 central points>
1) Investment into Argentina will collapse as other countries become more insular during the crisis.
2) we are dependent on exporting our oil to retain cash flow and fund ongoing operations, let alone keep up payments on loans even if the capital has been deferred and even increased.
I might then ask what gas we have currently ready to supply the "local markets" during the winter? (winter 2020 not winter 2023) and how long all operations would remain un nationalised if Argentina again goes into recession, defaults on loans , fails to pay outside agencies and suffers another few years of political chaos including the danger of a putsch?
Many months ago I commented on here that one of Echo's major issues was being almost exclusively located in Argentina, a country that has had severe economic crises on a regular basis since at least the 70s and an extremely chequered history with the IMF and latterly the World Bank; My concerns were ridiculed. Now with the double whammy of an almost certain global recession and inevitable cutting back of external investment into Argentina (and their fall back use of defaulting on loans and even nationalisation of assets) allied to the collapse of oil prices(sales of which we are almost entirely dependent for cash flow) I wonder if people will still suggest that my views were without foundation?
Aligator- the latest RNS with its detail is exactly what we have been asking for over many months ie information. CalE are already in and have paid their wedge to be in- it is just whether they wish to put more in on the agreed terms or not. Whether they do or not has no effect on the fact that we are funded for gas to market with many other options going forward.
I have no idea why CalE have not bought us, but I do suggest that they will cover any offers made, am most encouraged on the less sexy parts of the RNS relating to staff.
After the last 2 years I believe this to be the most proactive and positive RNS we have had
Partridge comments on many shares on LSE. His/her comments may not be what people want to hear but they are generally backed up by research, data, published information and SP level- as opposed to hit and hope sentiment whilst the SP goes down(here to 0.025) cash raises and dilution occur, Directors get ever more options and meanwhile the Neros' fiddle.
I have no idea of his/her motives- across all shares I prefer to read well researched posts rather than Alice in Wonderland views about multi baggers and SP rises.
Purely a personal view
Due to travel restrictions and other issues regarding the virus the meeting due to take place on the 17th March will be postponed in its current format. I am trying to arrange a conference call to replace the physical meeting, and also to try and ensure the face to face meeting will still go ahead at a later date.
It has been mentioned that I and SAG have gone quiet or even disappeared; in fact our holdings and membership have actually increased over the last fortnight as other members join and some top up/average down.
The reason for my infrequent posting is purely due to it being inappropriate for me to comment publicly now that the BoD have agreed to meet, and it would not be helpful for me to "BoD bash" prior to any meeting. I am also delaying sending e mails to our (now) 362 members until things become clearer about meeting; I will be in touch once I know.
SAG has not gone anywhere and is still committed to getting answers to questions both past and future; I believe the best way to do that is currently to meet the BoD face to face and put those questions to them- dependent on their answers we will decide the next steps.(with no measures ruled out as has always been the case)
It is a trying period for all SAG members around the world, for the BoD of Sound and indeed for every inhabitant of the world; it is not the time for score settling but a time for unity. This latter is a purely personal view
Your suspicions would be wrong. I have only finally reached agreement with Sound this morning on the venue, length and protocol of the meeting. I will be e mailing all SAG members with the necessary details. That is the reason for the delay in the group e mail being sent out, and nothing nefarious involved. I have also chosen to refrain from comments on this or other boards until after the meeting has taken place on the 17th
PS thank you for that. It is worth mentioning that all views are welcome in SAG and all views considered , because we consider every shareholder the same regardless of holdings.
I am a total ignoramus and know more about wine and food(sorry NY and ABJ) than oil/gas exploration but in my limited experience I have rarely seen a 70% COS on any drill anywhere in the world and that is certainly not backed up by the CPRs., nor even by company statements- and clearly not believed by the market.
We can comfort ourselves with potential; the SP DOES determine the actuality