Member Info for TrekMadone

Seems to be falling into place very nicely here with huge growth potential and it’s funding all in view!

Must say on a macro basis Nigeria looking a lot more stable than Europe atm in particular the UKCS!

Following a theme SEPL also looking good value atm I am using it as an income hedge whilst SAVE develops further.

African HC’s could well be in demand!

Usual caveats

Trek

750 boe/d to 1333 to EIA to 11500 to 33000 boe/d capacity at Cascadura and likely fulfilment at some point in the future and other prospects!

Feel for those underwater here but if anyone can average down or buy now then following that doing nothing should reap some huge rewards!

This just could be the lift off on a Glidepath to £1bn mcap!

Time will tell!

Usual caveats

Trek

Good post dunderhead.

Thanks MJ but in all honesty I have reservations about some of your views. I know it’s a BB but say as I see.

Core holding 140k shares. Never changed.

I have traded 20k successfully scalping 92-95p and may buy back again later. We’ll see. But tbh I wanted to hold them as well. I just couldn’t resist some obvious recent opportunities!

Usual caveats

Trek

Indeed this is a ‘cash machine’ with imo less of the baggage of BP with Rosneft and UKCS tax changes!

Whilst Nigeria is difficult it seems to be improving.

Our divi metrics are compelling!

These are the numbers for 3 months to March

$242m Revs
Ebitda of $147m
Cash generation of $179m, capex $26m
$312m cash on the balance sheet and debt of $443m

The annual $58.4m divi in excess of 2x cover from a quarters cashflow! The quarterly divi is only $14.6m!

So on a downside you could factor in a 50% reduction in POO and the divi is still well covered.

Near term upside -
Amukpe-Escravos pipeline End Q3
Additional 2 wells to come on line near term and an ongoing drilling program
Additional gas off take for new GSA’s + always chance if new sales
ANOH gas plant Q1 23

Imo nothing in sp MPNU acquisition. All risk to upside pretty much based on the Sp pullback from 130p to 100p following press comments.

Medium term outlook for HC’s looking reasonably positive even with recessionary storm clouds due to supply constraints, most of opec on max, under investment and geopolitical issues. Of course macro can change in a blink and there is always ops risk!

But 8% yield payed quarterly. Good chance of divi increase. Imo a reasonable place to invest for quarterly income to battle inflation.

Usual caveats

Trek

What we need imo is a JV with financial diligence.

The work with Merck at 4D doesn’t automatically turn them into a white knight as it wasn’t that type of deal.

You can also add SNG and IMM to recent SP woes.

The rewards of autonomy were/are potentially huge but the market seems to prefer a more shared risk approach. Better to have improved financial security and give up some of the pie early on which is part of the higher risk end.

SNG from memory raised around £87m (170p ish) for a phase 3 trial which came quickly on the back of a 14m raise at 35p ish.

For sure the progress made at phase 2 meant that the sp was much higher at phase 3.

Hence I took 2.5 x my money out between the two placings allowing the rest to ride only to virtually disintegrate when p3 didn’t show statistical differentiation. I sold what I had and then bought the dip and sold the lot again salvaging a little more.

What’s the point of this missive.

Well I think, not teaching anyone to suck eggs, but those newer to biotech, mining or O&G investing need to really think about how they wish to play their hands.

Don’t go falling for the Warren Buffet quotes about time in the market etc he probably wouldn’t touch anything in the small cap space so his ‘moat rules’ don’t apply!

4D was one of my best ever investments and it’s actually a sad day for Duncan, the team, pts and investors alike. I hope they can save the company but the lessons there are worth learning for all.

Nothing worse imo than being blinkered by one share when there is free experience available both good and not so good.

Some of the holdings here are super high albeit it’s all relative. Some folk have had opportunities to get a free carry in the past and turned it down.

All I am saying is give any opportunity in this space to derisk profits serious thought.

How many now at ARB would be happy with my last sell at 150p or AVCT at 200p. Whilst it wasn’t the top far from it.

Even just keeping a smaller position gives one the option to always buy back in! And it also helps offset some inevitable losses!

I am pretty sure we will be faced with a decision to be made here soon. Let’s hope so!

Usual caveats

Trek

Looks like about to move up…

I just took 500k at 72 it’s now 7445 to buy and 713 to sell 500k.

711 for 3.5m sell after that it’s NT

Can’t buy more than 1.5m without NT

MM happy to take on stock again so spread pulled in.

Usual caveats

Trek

Got the one on 26/05 but not today’s yet

Trek

Bouncing up now with POO. Cramer on Bloomberg saying oil entered bear market! POO driven down by recessionary fears. Meanwhile the broker targets are bullish based on supply constraints and underinvestment.

Note Warren Buffet has increased his Occidental stake!

I guess its pick a narrative and take a position.

With Putin now winding down the energy taps to Europe and China lockdowns the squeeze seems targeted at the wests economies.

I doubt China has a covid problem.

My view is their vaccine program was as good as the wests and having watched the impact of their previuos lockdowns on the west they are now locking down to force inflation higher and reduce further the flow of goods to the west.

Russia and China are playing the long game as they know no amount of rate rises will address supply side constraints. You gotta do that by making stuff, we don’t make enough. And ramping up/creating production needs more energy!

Low gas reserves in the winter and a slow down of commerce is looking more likely.

There will be huge discontent. Hyper inflation historically results in civil unrest.

China and Russia know that full well, their populations are controlled and they can grind it out feeding ‘the zombies’ with more disinformation. It will be all the Wests fault!

Pretty grim I know.

Can only think that oil and gold producers are the place to be and that’s assuming the demand is there for oil!

Health will do ok but even food will likely see reductions in volume.

8% yield from SEPL looks one of the safer havens and some of Africa may prove a safer investment than Europe which are heading for huge debt issues!

Interesting times ahead.

Usual caveats

Trek

We are traded on SETSqx not SETS so the MM will not allow auto buying until they have stock. Any sell would have likely have been worked. They have basically shut the books and you have to go through them taking a chance at best.

Theoretically the price should now move back up but I doubt we will see the countdown for a while.

Usual caveats

Trek

If there is a seller why is it NT to buy live on ii now even 5k shares but can sell 100k

Trek

Not a lifestyle company, but rather a case of imo ‘only sing when you are winning!’

Hubris is a dangerous thing! Let’s hope we get some numbers soon to qualify our investments.

I for one am pretty psd off at the ‘arms length’ management.

For equivalent comparison ‘we’ connected Glastonbury, and numerous similar events, many first time ones, on time, on budget with great community engagement!.

Now it’s called ESG!

It doesn’t happen via zoom!

I have been clerk of works (CoW )for many projects over the years and have never ceased to be amazed at the variety of challenges. However, whilst embracing technology in my experience the fixes have always come down to engagement and team work with people!

Usual caveats

Trek

I am sorry I thought folk were aware of this practice…

“ Spoofing Trading, also known as bluffing, trade spoofing is a disruptive trading practice whereby a trader sends a large bid or ask order to the market, with the intent to cancel the order before execution, just to manipulate the market. The large order tricks other traders into thinking that there’s a huge demand or supply in the market and trading accordingly…”

It’s been ongoing for years and the MAR which is imo a waste of space haven’t bolted it down. Nor have they addressed TR1 late notifications. I have raised a several complaints with them. The outcome of which has been the offenders have been ‘educated’ after already selling their positions without notifying the market!!!

https://therobusttrader.com/spoofing-trading/

There are also MM schemes…

I posted this on the SEPL BB recently to help explain the AT ALGO trades…

‘MM’s probably posted a liquidity scheme here as it’s so difficult to buy any volume. That’s why so many AT ALGO trades…

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SEPL/seplat-energy-plc/company-page

They use the ALGO’s to generate liquidity “incentive scheme” which is part of the MM’s job….

“Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578”

Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades.

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf

MiFID2 MM agmt tab... ‘is where they are listed and forwarded’

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/20200401%20MIT%20&%20TE%20Parameters%20version%207.2.xls’

Folk need to appreciate this space is not geared up for PI’s. Well that’s my view after fortunately making a living here for many years and happy to help any other PI’s as I can.

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

Should go back up soon. NT for more than 1000 shares.

I added 10k at a tad under 40p and can get a good price to sell 50k or a lower price for 100k in one go.

So logic says there’s more buying than selling pressure.

Well that’s the logic!

Usual caveats

Trek

Typical, brokers up targets and clients sell! SP looking v weak again. Was getting near my 140 average. Decided to sell the rest and may feed back in later.

SP below 200 DMA is not usually a good sign. Doesn’t matter about news can’t fight the trend!

After that great RNS it’s just resumed it’s downtrend!

Once the war in Ukraine hopefully ends this and a couple others will be strong buys but until then have had a change of heart and gone to cash/higher divi paying/spec sit stocks.

Good luck all

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi AJEP,

‘ What does this mean?
09:28:43 17.00 1,000,000 170.00k O
09:28:43 17.00 -1,000,000 -170.00k O’

It’s a cancelled order. Posted and pulled. Sometimes it’s referred to as a ‘spoof’ if there are repeated examples.

Usual caveats

Trek

On the JV, he said we don’t know to we can’t talk about it in public. Mmm

Well they are going to need some help. So imo the SP catalyst will be a partnership before the clinical trials.

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s Gary James McConnell increasing his holding. This time the RNS is not titled PDMR. So one can assume that that was a mistake on the previous RNS of 9th June for his first crossing.

Usual caveats

Trek

Needed that as the SP was looking weak. IMO APF shouldn’t be to hasty to divest coal as HC’s are in demand and if we don’t provide then others will and with lesser ESG.

Cobalt and lithium prices are off highs and EV manufacturing will weaken due to recessionary pressures. Big ticket items are often put off until people can see what’s ahead. That’s why Tesla are reducing staff. Hoping though this is short lived and more supply side constraint than recessionary.

All said though I am v positive on copper because electrification infrastructure will continue especially as governments invest ahead of the curve. SMS’s RNS today was a good indication of sentiment and planning.

I hold APF and will slowly add timing the dips as it’s deleveraging at pace and will soon be debt free.

Usual caveats

Trek

Good to keep an eye on the bigger picture here. SP is all ‘smoke and mirrors’. WTI back above 110 and Brent above 115 yet SEPL drifts.

Merger news now looks to be discounted from SP. We should track organic drivers now.

MM’s probably posted a liquidity scheme here as it’s so difficult to buy any volume. That’s why so many AT ALGO trades…

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SEPL/seplat-energy-plc/company-page

They use the ALGO’s to generate liquidity “incentive scheme” which is part of the MM’s job….

“Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578”

Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades.

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf

MiFID2 MM agmt tab...

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/20200401%20MIT%20&%20TE%20Parameters%20version%207.2.xls

Usual caveats

Trek

Divi held at .7p so forward yield of 7.9% delivered quarterly.

I had concerns about divi but now concerned if there is an impact to come from the 6% hike in corporation tax.

If duke can absorb that it will be some result but that could restrict capital distribution to loans.

Still a great result so far. Let’s see how it goes.

Usual caveats

Trek