Member Info for TrekMadone

I don’t get the lack of news and shareholder engagement.

I just hope it’s a case of “I know something you don’t know”. Which is to the mutual benefit of all!

An IND and FDA approvals pending, grants and revenues with a phase 1 trial, which counts as clinical trials! For this market cap! Ludicrous!

The mind boggles!

The SP is based on buys v sells which have been driven for the most part by very low volumes with the sells winning due to poor shareholder engagement as a consequence of a lack of news from TB. Who incidentally has the most to loose or gain?

Can’t wrap it up any other way!

Could go to 50p, a cheap MBO or bust!

All said I don’t see TB dipping out and his holdings are equites. Not Pref Shares or bonds or debt based instruments. His shares are same as ours.

That’s probably worth a bit of ‘reassurance’. I think!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Apro,

You know full well the POG has hit a technical death cross and ‘is’ due a bounce from your TA knowledge. But it all hinges on USD strength.

With 10 year treasuries now over 3% and the inversion looking like just a flirtation it’s bullish USD and bearish gold?

Bit of a ping pong. Will the arbitrage between treasury yields and inflation be arrested with higher rates. Nope as that will mean 9% rates to net evens. Tick for gold.

As inflation is due to supply side constraints then no matter what you do with rates those constraints are still there.

That is a different playbook to what the Fed are used to or anyone else for that matter.

The dark horse is oil price. Higher rates reduce the demand for oil which is an inflationary driver. But then it stunts growth big time! But then oil is fighting back as the world looks like it can’t pump enough even for reduced demand!

For sure tho the higher USD makes imports cheaper but there ain’t the stuff there to buy! You have to add in China lockdowns, Russian commodities price caps, then the back door work arounds etc

You also have a unique situation where there is almost full employment in the west for those that want to work and vacancies.

So if you screw the economy with rate rises when businesses can’t get stuff and can’t find labour then what a fk up!

Then you factor in on a geopolitical front that you have Russia and China playing a long game. Accumulating gold setting up their own brics currency and financial infrastructure.

An autocracy can basically do what they want because they have a managed population that will do what they are told or face the consequences!

Meanwhile in the West there will be absolute anarchy because folk are loosing their livelihood and are confronted with huge food bills and pay that lags!

Whilst the West tries to sort its own mess out, of its own making, China and Russia will be courting South America, Africa and Asia hooking them on cheap commodities and infrastructure ‘crack loans’ ready to expand their influence. And they wont give a fk if their populations are starving!

You see folk keep looking at the old drivers whilst the geopolitics is playing out in plain sight.

You could even get right down to the detail like Tic Toc. If Africa it is absolutely huge backed by celebrity wannabes. The searches and ads are all manipulated so the right stuff gets to the top. Influencers that push the right narrative have the best hits. The data is offshored. There is a back door for everything. Who to? China.

Remember Cambridge Analytics. Well copy and improve. That’s what they do!

I could go on and there are answers but they need a long term approach and that doesn’t fit in with our short term 4 year democratic cycles.

All my own view, hey, I will stick with gold!

Usual caveats

Trek

I emailed them over a week ago and not had a reply, again. But that is no different from many other companies. Some reply some don’t.

Also the % not in public hands is misleading as nominees are mostly public holdings.

I am not bothered if there is a seller or not. That happens all the time with these companies and it has a disproportionate affect on the SP.

That should be viewed as an opportunity IF the numbers and ops are as purported.

Holders sell for many reasons but only buy for one. Well I hope!

As far as I can tell they are selling enough gold to run the operations and have the 1m for TZ. Let’s face it if that wasn’t the case we would have run out of cash ages ago!

Once the output increases so will follow expansion and RBL if required. SHG have shown us there is money available for the right projects.

The MRE will happen. Even if it’s not mega it will be an improvement and a valuation data point which is clearly in need atm

For balance talking my own book as have a significant holding now. But isn’t that what happens on BB’s.

Just feel within the next couple of weeks we should know and I have backed RM.

Usual caveats

Trek

Me to. 2 x 500k. 1 at 649 and 1 at 65.

Got a great average now. I think!

Mostly buys today by the looks.

Could even finish blue. May be a FOMO Friday. Who knows but value should out.

Just need to back up RM’s bullishness with numbers!

Pretty much comes down to wether you believe him or not. I think he is too pleasantly naive to lie. Answers questions honestly thinking it’s the best policy. It mostly is. But I think you get what I mean.

And then the…..

‘…..oh we got 1.75m cash’ … no more questions. Perhaps the host has had coffee with RM! Lol!

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Trek

Hi Cheap,

I don’t think the divi will be cut either. I added more on the drop. My point was the markets view.

Re LGEN, completely different book as is PHNX.

MNG riskier of the 3 hence the yield.

If when markets recover MNG will be the biggest winner followed by PHNX imo.

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Trek

I agree hm,

No free cash yet to top up my YOLO ISA with more TXP!

Have to wait until end of Aug.

Despite all my protestations on previous posts. It was pretty clear. to me at least, that the company read the BB’s and felt they had to get a RNS out. Another comms issue!

But I think PB will take the pretty forthright views portrayed here and elsewhere onboard and set about improving the teams behaviours especially around being proactive! Being a demanding customer/supplier of both themselves and others.

We will see. But sub 60p seems a no brainer as long as you have time.

Ps. Does anyone have access to the Euroclear shorts. I thought that they had closed in the 80-90p range.

If that is the case. Oh the irony! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Look at the TA Luna,

If you don’t have to buy then don’t rush in imo.

The max graph view on google finance is pretty straightforward to read. You can see 1500 is a huge support as it was resistance in 2007. The line across forms the support.

If 1500 were to fail then you have 1300 but that is pretty unlikely!

1500 may not come but could get close and need to be mindful that the SP is hardly likely to run away with itself just yet so be patient.

I would look to buy in w lots 1700, 1600, 1500 to give a reasonable average without dare I say ‘missing out!’

Usual caveats

Trek

They also make it sound that TXP didn’t respond appropriately but they haven’t pointed out that the questions were impossible to answer! Jobsworths!

Usual caveats

Trek

‘ This seems to be a small delay to the Cascadura facility whilst the company provides the data needed for the approval of the application. Accordingly I see no reason to change my incredibly positive stance on TXP as the newsflow from the company expected in the next few months should be transformational to the company. ’

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/07/oil-price-touchstone-angus-getech-uog-and-finally/

Trek

Sorry about double link. Fat fingers.

Got more at 107.8.

I suspect BR are working their average. I note they sold some and increased their leverage on the TR1.

Not bothered. I liked how DEC had hedged their HC’s.

I would prefer a stable income as can invest elsewhere for capital gain or loss lol!

I Think these can be ‘safely’ tucked away to provide a pretty reliable quarterly yield. If it goes below 100 I will double up as for now I have enough.

Usual caveats

Trek

And it has increased its divi for every year for more than the last 5years!!

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/diversified-energy-company-plc-ord-gbp0.01

Interesting HL says you need to complete the W-8Ben when ii don’t!

I have given up trying to work out who does and who doesn’t!

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/d/diversified-energy-company-plc-ord-gbp0.01

Nb 13% on forward yield. HL yield shown is retrospective.

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Trek

Half year was 15th June last year.

I have been fortunate to sell some and rebuy to get my average down here….

Wonder if news follows this….

“ We have also, since the period end, filed the court's approval to cancel the share premium account of Jarvis Securities with Companies House. Once registered, this will have the effect of increasing the distributable reserves and gives additional flexibility for the board to return cash to shareholders.”

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Trek

It’s for sure a good divi payer, forward yield at a tad over 5% now.

My concern is will the divi be increased if they secure and aquisition to mitigate the single mine risk?

I doubt it as obviously they would want to preserve cash.

So as an income play it has organic risks from single mine and capex expansion.

So next question is would the increase in nav drive the sp if they acquire another prospect?

Possibly but the flavour of this market is realistically unlikely at least until they can see it generating revenues. A new operation comes with new risks.

At best the sp will market time and at best the divi will remain. Any increase in Blanket revs from the new shaft would likely be used to manage growth.

All unknowns and therefore speculation atm but it’s how I read it from the sidelines.

Such a shame as I really rate this company and if it wasn’t for the fact I wanted this for income now I would take the plunge but atm I am still undecided.

Good luck with your investments

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Trek

Should go down v well….

“ PayPoint today announces the launch of a next business day settlement service for PayPoint One customers signing up to integrated card payments with a PayPoint-preferred acquirer.

Initially available to new card payment customers for no additional fee, the service will enable retailers to receive funds from any card transactions directly into their nominated bank account the following business day.

With plans to introduce the service to all customers later this year, the next business day settlement service removes the existing wait of three to five days for retailers to receive card payment funds into their business account. This provides several practical benefits for business owners, including greater control over daily operational costs and faster reinvestment of revenue back into their business as needed.…..etc”

https://ffnews.com/newsarticle/paypoint-launches-next-business-day-settlement/

Trek

Back to my point really. Clearly they were open to meetings if they are now meeting so why wasn’t a more collaborative approach taken from the off.

Amateurism and hubris on both sides at the expense of revenues to the people and our wealth!

Really psd off at what looks to have been avoidable!

Now get Coho pumping!

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Trek

Broker targets are seldom reached. They usually ramp their own book long or short!

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Trek

The bookbuild kicks off this week. Take what we can that buys time. You wouldn’t not accept what’s on the table. Always come back to market again later.

Anyways all speculation. Let’s hope investors are looking at the longer term copper price which is still bullish.

You would think the government would buy the bonds to create real jobs and real assets rather than vaporising money on QE! But that’s another view!

Usual caveats

Trek

We will do well to get away with 7.5%. I think we will see partial take up on higher rates as I did say before. The RNS is clear that terms may change.

However, we have $10m cash and a huge asset. Even if we get away with 10m raised that will be good. Can then come back to market when things settle.

A royalty sponsor like APF or a JV is also an option.

The US Keynesian spending will be going ahead. It’s a question of wether that will take up the industrial slack for copper.

Any settlement in the Ukraine conflict and copper will go through the roof!

Still game on. Just tougher though!

I picked up 10k at the close having sold them earlier. Made a couple of pence! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Recessionary woes driven by Putin winding in the gas and rate rises to combat inflation. Although I don’t see how rising rates will ameliorate supply side constraints that’s where we are.

M&G whist it doesn’t have much exposure to Russia or China is invested in European Equities and fixed income bonds (slide 45)

Whilst it can pay pensions from bond interest a big part of its book is retail via Pru. If they see redemptions due to falling stock markets then that hits M&G’s bottom line.

They do have excellent solvency 2 ratio at 218% so they can cover redemptions but that doesn’t address income loss via fees and reductions in AUM.

They also have real estate exposure which is very sensitive to rates.

These sort of insurance companies are tied to markets similar to banks.

Whilst it’s early days still the market is pricing in a divi cut. My view is the share buy back was premature. That said it’s probably just as well to ramp it up now.

Also from a TA perspective there is good support at 150p but let’s hope it doesnt go there!

I may sell and try and get back cheaper again. I have been balancing my pf towards gas/cash and gold.

However, I think the August divi’s will be delivered for the likes of PHNX, LGEN, DLG, MNG etc which means if you can catch the bottom and the market recovers you could be bagging a huge interim and still be in the blue with the stock.

Make of that what you will!

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Trek

https://www.mandgplc.com/~/media/Files/M/MandG-Plc/documents/investors/results-reports-and-presentations/2021/mg-plc-fy21-results-presentation.pdf

Exited here, parked it in DEC. Will look to come back later when have better idea of gas situation in Europe.

Usual caveats

Trek