Member Info for TrekMadone

I added a few back in today now SP settled. The 3500 and 1500 buys are mine. Doesn’t look like 150 is on at least yet but will pick up more up or down later.

Thrugelmir,

There is a a 3p quarterly divi paid Mar, Jun, sep, Dec. So for my 5k shares that’s £150/quarter assuming divi held at 3p which I hope as it had just been cut to 3p or a yield of 7.58% on my new buy in average.

It only takes one set of numbers for these brokers to change the rev dynamic significantly as they are very low cost and cash generative.

It’s about retaining and growing customers and increased activity per customer.

IGG and PLUS are doing it well but more international. JIM could be a good recovery play from this level with a 250p target very possible.

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

Just another view as I have this one on my watchlist. I may be tempted in after September results.

We don’t know if they had a rebate of any legal fees. As not mentioned I assume not. They only had 1.6m Oz in June and legals of 2.4m are expected for both cases.

Don’t get me wrong this is an amazing company and buyers now will do well imo long term. I am waiting for the financial results before deciding. I may have to pay more which is fine as certainty deserves a premium but I would rather wait and see the balance sheet recharged for growth.

So DYOR esp if you are just chasing risers.

Usual caveats

Trek

Ther are either divi shares reinvested and we don’t pay a divi so they are likely MM liquidity shares. MM’s often put through small trades to generate liquidity by moving the price on illiquid stocks. They can register a liquidity scheme under MiFID. Without the MM intervening stocks could become zero or infinite…

“Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578

Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades.

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf

MiFID2 MM agmt tab...

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/20200401%20MIT%20&%20TE%20Parameters%20version%207.2.xls”

That’s sort of the gist why so many small numbers of trades.

Usual caveats

Trek

This has been the share that just keeps on giving!

I added on the last pullback 3 lots below 580 hoping that it would run through the 600’s again and on to 630 before the next 24.8p divi.

It looks like that is on yet again!

If you get in below 600, and there have been plenty of opportunities due to the vix then there is always the CHANCE to take the divi and sell your stock at a profit.

I run a spreadsheet that shows the xd dates, yields etc and use the charts and historic pull backs to try and time buys and sells.

You can then take your money off risk between divi’s or head to the next target.

August has good pickings with so many XD but what sets PHNX apart is it’s 50/50 interim/final split. So you get a comparatively larger divi compared to interims elsewhere like MNG etc

If you also track quarterly payers you will see that some the SP often doesn’t move after paying the divi. It deducts it at the start of day but by the end or over the next couple of days the SP is back where it was. SEPL is a good example if you chart it.

Anyways I will likely hold here after the xd as I have a ‘low’ average as I see a recovery but if 600 is under threat I may sell some to recycle. We’ll see.

Ps don’t know if anyone else has looked at the last investor ppt. What a load of tripe!

Loads of fancy pictures of mouths wide open and plenty on diversity, net zero targets, ethics, internal demographics and equal pay… all important but after they tell you where all the money is invested for each book!

That’s my main worry here. For sure their capital tier 1 ratio’s are well covered but they don’t have sufficient handle on investment diversity.

There should be a pie chart for each book showing where the money is and then expanding out for lower level detail. To be fair MNG have all that covered very well but not PHNX. Disappointing. It looks like it’s run here exclusively by HR!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Thronegames,

I have for me significant positions here TXP, SAVE and SEPL. Have a few COPL as well… that’s my diversification lol!

I did have a large position in GLO but they are being taken over so I flipped them into DEC.

I see energy as an inflation hedge and think macro will support higher HC prices for a while. GLO had renewables but to get another income similar from renewables it’s mostly via Fund/ETF. I don’t like the charges!

I think Warren Buffet is also backing energy atm with his Occidental buys

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/berkshire-hathaway-buys-additional-12-million-shares-occidental-2022-07-07/

I have been a long term holder of TXP from 11p and SAVE from 8.3p and added to my TXP only recently at 56.75p. I see SAVE and TXP as future income plays and their stories are well in tact so I continue to hold.

DEC and SEPL are supporting my income and I am a fan of both atm.

All said if things change I will trade to work a position.I have been very fortunate with my investments over the years with the winners more than making up for loosers!

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

CUDA is now free of all liens, clean break.

Interest payments settled in full.

Can now refinance COPL America’s debt to much better terms.

I think the costs quoted were final costs, as we know other cash has been raised to get us to here but once they have a standard bucket of debt that the market comprehends the shares should go on a significant rerate from whatever point.

RS next! Then hopefully the option of a free carry to longer term dividends!

Usual caveats

Trek

Saw this China not keeping its infrastructure spend up in Russia…

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/25/blow-putin-china-abandons-investment-russia/

I don’t think it’s anything to do with covid though. I think is more about Chinese sub prime debt (Evergrande). They are really struggling now following lock downs to avoid contagion…

“……On Monday, Japanese banking giant Nomura said "an increasing number of developers have failed to repay their debt and continue their construction works" since the Evergrande crisis.
Also on Monday, it was reported that China was planning to start a real estate fund to support more than a dozen property developers, including Evergrande.
The fund could be worth up to 300bn yuan, according to reports.
Home sales in China have fallen for 11 consecutive months, official data shows. That is the longest slump since China created a private property market in the late 1990s.
Several Chinese developers have halted the construction of homes that had already been sold, because of concerns over cash flow.
In recent weeks, some home buyers have threatened to stop paying their mortgages until the work restarts.
More than 200 projects by at least 80 developers have been affected, according to the Shanghai-based E-house China Research and Development Institution.
The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has pledged to help local governments in "guaranteeing the delivery of homes," state media reported…..”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62287685

Defo moving up the agenda now the BBC are aware!

China trying to keep lid on it, some homeowners getting compensation following protests but they can’t just magic 300bn yn which imo is an understatement.

Biggest worry is default will affect lots of European and US banks. Well they just can help themselves can they! Crooks never flipping learn!

Usual caveats

Trek

Thanks Jim,

The revs I can understand! The units don’t come easily! Keep having to go to oil room 101!

My diversification atm is pretty much all energy, some gold and then other spec sits. Warren B seems to be backing energy atm but he obviously wouldn’t touch this due to mcap.

Usual caveats

Trek

Let’s not miss this opportunity! Gas up 10% and rising. From DT at 6pm…

‘ Putin has cut gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline just days after restarting flows, marking an escalation of the continent’s energy crisis.

Gazprom will cut flows through the link to about 20pc of its capacity from 7am Moscow time on Wednesday.

Flows restarted through the pipeline last week at about 40pc of capacity following 10 days of planned maintenance work. They’ve been at roughly that level since Russia first cut supplies last month.

It follows a warning from the Kremlin that supplies could fall further if a spat over equipment isn’t resolved.

A turbine that was trapped in Canada due to sanctions has still not been returned, while Gazprom said another turbine is due for maintenance and will be taken out of service.

The move threatens to plunge Europe even further into an energy crisis and will fuel concerns about rationing and blackouts this winter.

Benchmark European gas prices rose as much as 10pc following the announcement.“

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/25/ftse-100-markets-live-news-tax-economy-cryptocurrency-musk/

Usual caveats

Trek

Yep and I reckon it’s in cohesion with Russia.

China doesn’t have a covid problem on the scale they profess. They have all been jabbed same as us.

They are just using it as an opportunity to export inflation = civil unrest add that to fuel prices which = more civil unrest.

They want us to riot to keep warm!

Can’t riot in an autocracy well you can try but no one will hear you scream!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi SeaTank,

That would be nice. I averaged up a tad today in anticipation of good results. Like you say SP been strong.

I note this from DT at 6pm today… (Also Nat grid been to Belgium for emergency power). Obviously the downside of energy constraints is recessionary which reduces demand but I think this is different. Whilst SEPL don’t export to Europe (to my knowledge) a rising tide lifts all ships and downside here seems to be 92pish atm and that was at a push!

‘ ‘ Putin has cut gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline just days after restarting flows, marking an escalation of the continent’s energy crisis.

Gazprom will cut flows through the link to about 20pc of its capacity from 7am Moscow time on Wednesday.

Flows restarted through the pipeline last week at about 40pc of capacity following 10 days of planned maintenance work. They’ve been at roughly that level since Russia first cut supplies last month.

It follows a warning from the Kremlin that supplies could fall further if a spat over equipment isn’t resolved.

A turbine that was trapped in Canada due to sanctions has still not been returned, while Gazprom said another turbine is due for maintenance and will be taken out of service.

The move threatens to plunge Europe even further into an energy crisis and will fuel concerns about rationing and blackouts this winter.

Benchmark European gas prices rose as much as 10pc following the announcement.“

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/25/ftse-100-markets-live-news-tax-economy-cryptocurrency-musk/

Usual caveats

Trek

Gonna get nasty!

“ ‘ Putin has cut gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline just days after restarting flows, marking an escalation of the continent’s energy crisis.

Gazprom will cut flows through the link to about 20pc of its capacity from 7am Moscow time on Wednesday.

Flows restarted through the pipeline last week at about 40pc of capacity following 10 days of planned maintenance work. They’ve been at roughly that level since Russia first cut supplies last month.

It follows a warning from the Kremlin that supplies could fall further if a spat over equipment isn’t resolved.

A turbine that was trapped in Canada due to sanctions has still not been returned, while Gazprom said another turbine is due for maintenance and will be taken out of service.

The move threatens to plunge Europe even further into an energy crisis and will fuel concerns about rationing and blackouts this winter.

Benchmark European gas prices rose as much as 10pc following the announcement.“

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/25/ftse-100-markets-live-news-tax-economy-cryptocurrency-musk/

Usual caveats

Trek

Don’t know if anyone seen this yet. Yes I know it’s gas but it’s energy that’s impacted… HH up 10%

“ ‘ Putin has cut gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline just days after restarting flows, marking an escalation of the continent’s energy crisis.

Gazprom will cut flows through the link to about 20pc of its capacity from 7am Moscow time on Wednesday.

Flows restarted through the pipeline last week at about 40pc of capacity following 10 days of planned maintenance work. They’ve been at roughly that level since Russia first cut supplies last month.

It follows a warning from the Kremlin that supplies could fall further if a spat over equipment isn’t resolved.

A turbine that was trapped in Canada due to sanctions has still not been returned, while Gazprom said another turbine is due for maintenance and will be taken out of service.

The move threatens to plunge Europe even further into an energy crisis and will fuel concerns about rationing and blackouts this winter.

Benchmark European gas prices rose as much as 10pc following the announcement.“

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/25/ftse-100-markets-live-news-tax-economy-cryptocurrency-musk/

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Jim,

Yes gas is becoming more significant…. From last TU

‘ Production

The Company recorded exit rate production in March of 136 Mboepd (816 MMcfepd), consistent with the Company's estimated ~8-9% annual decline rate, and delivered 1Q22 average net daily production of 134 Mboepd (803 MMcfepd), unchanged vs. 4Q21 reflecting temporary winter weather related impacts. Production levels continue to improve entering 2Q22 as weather moderates and reflecting the added East Texas assets (current gas production of 3.7 MBoepd / 22 MMcfepd) as previously announced on April 26,l 2022.’

https://www.div.energy/news-events/us-press-releases/detail/133/diversified-energy-releases-first-quarter-trading-statement

I not gas prices have just lept 10%! 6:08pm today…

‘ Putin has cut gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline just days after restarting flows, marking an escalation of the continent’s energy crisis.

Gazprom will cut flows through the link to about 20pc of its capacity from 7am Moscow time on Wednesday.

Flows restarted through the pipeline last week at about 40pc of capacity following 10 days of planned maintenance work. They’ve been at roughly that level since Russia first cut supplies last month.

It follows a warning from the Kremlin that supplies could fall further if a spat over equipment isn’t resolved.

A turbine that was trapped in Canada due to sanctions has still not been returned, while Gazprom said another turbine is due for maintenance and will be taken out of service.

The move threatens to plunge Europe even further into an energy crisis and will fuel concerns about rationing and blackouts this winter.

Benchmark European gas prices rose as much as 10pc following the announcement.“

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/25/ftse-100-markets-live-news-tax-economy-cryptocurrency-musk/

I do agree though it would be helpful to have a pie chart in the presentation of Oil, Nat Gas & NGL split. They only show total output and individual hedging prices.

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_ce1aee62713d8ebaa7fcdcd0196384bc/dgoc/db/557/4579/pdf/DEC_Investor_Presentation_May_2022.pdf

Good luck with your investments.

I think this one is excellent!

Usual caveats

Trek

Added again significantly today. My ropy TA has this going back to 120’s. I note the oil futures were up today which probably accounted for the lift into the close.

No deal with Saudies to increase output, Yemen on line but irregular output and price caps on Russian crude may have opposite effect. Countenance that with China lockdown and recessionary pressures then countenance that with a weaker USD etc etc…

Basically no one has a clue where oil price is going! The attraction of DEC is its hedged down but open to upside. The divi is well covered and new wells about to flow.

At this moment especially now my previous income fav GLO is a looking like a goner following the successful bid DEC offers the most compelling income story. It therefore has the number one spot in Mrs Treks pf and our No 2 overall.

Happy if it just stays in the 100-120 trading range now chucking off cash!

Usual caveats

Trek

Positive reaction to HUR today after clearing its CLN’s. I wonder if we will see an uplift if we announce debt free. Obviously if the deal fall through. Hur up 18% (I don’t hold them).

Usual caveats

Trek

% change In 1 year….. in 5 years

Cmcx - 31. +103

Plus. +19 +162

IGG. -11. +27

Jim. -50. +31

HL. -48. -36

AJb. -28. +37

Source google finance

Just goes to show hold and hug only works if you have the right shares and of course timing of buys & sells.

I like the low cost model that JIM holds and that they have a good BoD with good holdings but I was a little peeved at how the divi was cut almost incidentally and that at the last TU they then haven’t mentioned wether it will be cut or held going forward.

That makes this more of an ops play than income play until that unknown is known. If however, the SP drops below 150 then even with another cut the yield should still be good and well covered.

On sidelines atm.

Usual caveats

Trek

Jiddy - I called it. Others could have followed or considered an alternative view. Differing views is what makes a market. Isn’t that the idea of a BB to share alternative and similar standpoints within the rules of etiquette.

Gosh the stick one gets for having a different take to one’s own. Do ‘sour grapes’ go in boxes as well!

Pity you’ll miss some posts now with a view contrary to your own.

Usual caveats

Trek

Rule one of investing protect your capital….

Rule 2 see rule one..

That is not luck. It’s a result of lessons learnt making a living in this space for years now. Well thankfully it’s now a hobby.

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

Was ever thus. These folk push their own narratives and not one of reality. Prefer science myself where opinion is based on evidence based research. The evidence of the SPT and the associated decline in GDP in T&T points to a different story to that of growth and safe havens!

Nonetheless I have grabbed 10k more at the bell here today. 56p has held up and I figured with a now bullish MACD it was as close to the bottom as possible with a few other TA indicators now turning positive.

Surprising how a ‘small’ top up lifts one’s average though!

Usual caveats

Trek