Member Info for TrekMadone

RNS from BEN today….. you can read the rest over there….

“ Infrastructure update



Bens Creek Group plc (AIM: BEN), the owner of a metallurgical coal mine in North America supplying the steel industry, is able to provide an infrastructure update following the severe flooding in the Western part of the West Virginia and the Eastern Kentucky region since Wednesday 27 July 2022.



The Appalachian region of Western West Virginia and Eastern Kentucky experienced, from Wednesday 27 July through to Saturday 30 July, severe levels of rainfall and flooding not seen for decades, causing downed trees, power outages, disruption to the water system and road blockages. A state of emergency has been declared in certain parts of these areas, whilst several deaths have been reported in Eastern Kentucky. The areas adjacent to the Company's infrastructure in West Virginia which have been affected are Mingo County and Logan.…….”

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s the glove market that was previously guided to recover this half and hasn’t, yet.

The 22p divi which I bagged was a one off.

The forward yield will be around 3.4% at this level.

This is a recovery play now and will depend on macro market growth

Usual caveats

Trek

The companies hedging leaves it exposed to upside.

They have thousands of wells and hundred in the basin that may have been shut down. There is no power and roads etc are flooded as are many communities. It’s really bad.

It doesn’t take much to bring a well back on but there is potential environmental impact and the obvious impact from outages. Atm it’s unknown but it’s highly likely there is some fall out. The speculation is how much.

Either way even if the SP takes a short term hit it should recover quickly.

After the last floods wells had to have dykes and no new wells were allowed on floodplains. Given the severity of this flood I think many dykes would be overcome.

There has been no news from the company as I expect they are still assessing impact.

Hopefully it’s not even noteworthy so we carry on. I sold some as having been burnt before by ‘forrest fires’ in Canada I took the view that it’s better to bank profits and risk missing a few upside pennies than it is doing nothing and risking a potentially larger down side loss.

If there is no news over the next few days then I think we can safely say it’s immaterial.

The SP usual discounts the divi at open albeit relatively briefly but nonetheless that is also a buying opportunity, cheaper but without the divi.

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

Amukpe-Escravos Pipeline Being commissioned. 0800 RNS late out of the blocks!

Question is is it in the price short term or not?

Looks like it is as SP off recent highs a tad or the market is asleep!

Well I am hoping it pulls back to under 120 to add more.

Asleep at DEC as well imo just in case any holders here.

Usual caveats

Trek

I have been following it the weekend. Can’t find any news relating to wells being flooded but have looked at maps and at impact from previous floods on O&G operations.

Took 50k shares off at the bell. Had a good run from 107-110 buys so decided to hold them in cash until more info.

I think even if ops is unaffected they are due to come back a tad at some point. Which tbh I would have held if not for the unknown weather impact.

I don’t mind buying back in with less shares but just balanced risks for now based on upside v downside likelihood and having 10% profit which is almost a years divi for those shares!

Still remain ultra bullish on DEC and hope to get back in soon well before next xd.

I thought no point emailing Co as they wouldn’t tell me something that they hadn’t told the market one way or another. So majority on sidelines for now.

Usual caveats

Trek

I think this will help but if correct then US gas will only be of limited use to Europe as we can’t process it from LNG at scale necessary…..

https://youtu.be/IBbz8sjVz6I

Gonna be a cold winter!

Usual caveats

Trek

I just love this guy…. It’s also good having a perspective from other than the West.

Russia has made almost double the revenues from energy than it did before the war thanks to our sanctions. Come December….. well anyone know any hot-water-bottle manufactures?

Remember them at the bottom of the bed as kids!

https://youtu.be/IBbz8sjVz6I

Usual caveats

Trek

An interesting video on Belt and Road initiative.

This guy really rattles it off without emotion and factually based.

From 15mins….
China has invested $125bn in Russia! Add in Belarus 8bn and Ukraine 7bn and that’s 1/5th of overseas investments. Factor in other EM risks and then domestic bad debt and you can see the house of cards!

Some of the debt is commodity backed so underwriting by Russian oil etc but then they wouldn’t get cash.

As China reduces loans due to EM risks so it switches off taps and becomes an EM debt collector so the EM economies become stressed as money supply isn’t there.

IMO add in higher USD and inflation + Chinese unemployment and the world economy is on a knife edge.

History shows us that nasty things happen if economies are stressed esp where you have autocratic leaders that are looking for a distraction and a carpet to sweep their dirt under! Nancy should know that!

https://youtu.be/2tRL6XeNohI

Can India learn from China?

Real Estate is 30% of China GDP!

In New York it takes 10 years on average income to buy and average apartment. In London 17. In Mumbai 26 in China 56 years! And the land is leasehold as it’s owned by the state! But good thing is there is no property tax!

Now wait for this the developers have 90 million properties that are vacant. Yes more than the whole population of the UK, France or Canada! They are in ghost cities. The majority of them are owned by people as an investment in the hope they will go up in price! It’s called a super bubble!

Step up Evergrande who then borrowed to build but didn’t finish the ones they started. They now have suppliers waiting for over $100bn of payments!

So now people aware of Evergrande debt won’t buy those incomplete apartments so no cashflow. Those that have loans can’t move in as apartments aren’t finished so they are withholding their mortgages. 1.6m apartments affected! The threat to China banks is $220bn!That is huge even for China as many more real estate companies are falling into the same trap!

A good little video from a different perspective.

https://youtu.be/FxiZRYJTEo0

And now house prices have been declining….

“ China New Home Prices Fall for 2nd Straight Month
Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities declined by 0.5 percent year-on-year in June 2022, following a 0.1 percent drop a month earlier. The latest figure represented the second straight month of decrease in new home prices, amid COVID-19 outbreaks in multiple cities and a downturn in the...”

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-index

I don’t think the market really gets the risks that Chinese debt contagion could pose to the RoW or the stress China is under from youth unemployment, bad loans, covid ‘allegedly’, housing crisis, Taiwan and a ‘friend’ called Putin!

Usual caveats

Trek

Clawed it’s way there. 600p close is significant you can see on the chart.

Will hopefully now move from resistance to support.

I doubt many income holders with under 600p averages will be sellers at +600p. If 600p looks to be under serious threat then that could lead to a sell and reload.

Played like a fiddle this one. Hopefully can just tuck away now!

Usual caveats

Trek

Up 2.75p on less than 60 trades. It can do 10p on 250 trades quite easily!

Up or down of course!

Usual caveats

Trek

Thanks jungle,

I have added on the divi payment from the Co website at the end…. So 100% paid out as declared by company. So no extras held back. We don’t know if that was due to form or not though.

https://ir.div.energy/dividend-information

———

divi's rec'd into my SIPP with requisite we8 forms signed.

30/06/22 3.42634p per share…….. 4.25c = 3.43p
28/03/22 3.245148p per share……..4.25c = 3.25p
17/12/21 2.99456p per share……….4.00c = 2.99p

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Jim,

Agree I have written to them again and included the company investor relations links and a link to the HL site that shows the need to complete the form.

It may be that some treaties have changed after Brexit or it may be someone at ii haven’t got it correct.

I also asked if they need the currency election form completed for payments in GBP as the default is USD.

I will share the reply but I may just send the forms off anyway!

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

The biggest change upon us is the green energy transition. People are in their minds making the shift – for example buying a Tesla and plugging it in, but conveniently forgetting that the battery is charged from a coal-fired power station spewing CO2 into the atmosphere. However, they are not making that change in their lives.

That change may be forced upon them. In the future more energy is going to be mined than drilled and right now copper is the key. Robert Friedland recently said that 700 million tonnes of copper have been mined in human history, but in the next 22 years we’re going to need at least that amount. However, copper miners are not mining.

At some point they are going to be forced to start mining, and that’s why I’m trying to get as much royalty exposure to copper as I can. Dollar worth; nickel value.“

https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/gold-why-it-still-matters-in-the-age-of-the-great-reset/

Interesting

Usual caveats

Trej

Sure looks like folk buying in anticipation of news. Must say I hope it’s next week else the next excuse will be everyone is on holiday. Might be difficult to tell the difference though!

Usual caveats

Trek

Well I got back in here under 20p. Not same amount as before as have had to build income. Needs must!

Intend to sit here now thinking we could see a move after the summer. Nothing like a lift in POG to put some urgency under potential buyers.

Warrant conversions should easily provide enough liquidity but at 20p even if they raise which I don’t think they will it would be imo at a higher sp as would follow news.

If this goes to 15 I would sell elsewhere and buy more. The asset will be monetised at a much much higher SP.

Not long now imo.

Well that’s how I see it.

Usual caveats

Trek

Aquisition adds $82m ebitda! Paid for by cash and some leverage. Turns cash into accretive asset of $297m with long life stable revs.

The clever bit is the hedging and decline management.

$24 adm ebitda to be replaced leaves 3.4x upside from cashflow.
46% premium after hedging.
Debt ratio remains same at 2.2x adjusted ebitda as asset increases.

So the acquisition just soaks into the existing business model but it’s net positive in revenue. Now what do they do with the extra cash? That’s more income to cover the same amount of divi and/or rebuild the acquisition pot.

I am not bothered by the debt as it’s cheap and 95% fixed, especially in this market. IMO the debt actually has value as it’s more expensive for others to acquire on our terms if the makes any sense? Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Here’s a helpful link to divi info on company site. I am flipping hoping it’s only 15% from ii!

https://ir.div.energy/dividend-information

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Spondy,

Unfortunately I didn’t have any DEC for the last divi. Hence I emailed ii for advice as was hoping they would deal with any claim. I posted their reply here verbatim.

I will check when the next div arrives and post here…

For interest result of compounding at 10% reinvestment on £100. Money back at 7.5 years…

100.00, 110.00, 121.00, 133.10, 146.4, 161.0, 177.1, 194.87, 214.36

For 12% reinvestment money back in nearly 6 years!

100.00, 112.00, 125.44, 140.49, 157.35, 176.23, 197.38, 221.07

That’s without capital gain or divi increase which as you see can have a dramatic increase in returns on just 2% increase.

Potential investors should read Jim’s post below and check they get it and look at the amazing financial cover in the last investor presentation. Oh if it was all a myth as the market clearly thought then how come they pay cash for this acquisition?

Mmm stock on a rerate imo. Step aside those hypocritically greenwashed insti’s others will step in and buy value!

2021 results

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_df03494d82123e89b1e7438e084616bb/dgoc/db/562/4578/pdf/DEC_2021_FINAL_RESULTS_PRESENTATION.pdf

Acquisition ppt just loaded…. Great comms!

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_df03494d82123e89b1e7438e084616bb/dgoc/db/557/4580/pdf/DEC_Central_Region_Acquisition.pdf

Usual caveats

Trek

Out of the blocks early today!

Is it permission to buy from the bosses before the hols lol! Well someone is happy to take the AXA shares!

Last orders for +10% yield.

Usual caveats

Trek

Possibly news next week, I doubt it but nice to see a little bounce off the basement.

At this level it’s an excellent trading chance for those that wanna risk riding a positive RNS. However, common sense says just buy here if you want to hold longer term in case of a financing delay.

Either way news soon…

Usual caveats

Trek