Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi guys,

Kind words. Just been a bit lucky.

GCAT was a tip from itsyou. I have managed to trade my average down there and here.

Both exceptional companies but there has been little escape from the small cap sector malaise mostly irrespective of a companies prospects. It’s required one taking a different approach to buy and hold. Gotta work one’s average which in turn I guess adds to ‘the problem’!

TXP/PHNX/SEPL and DEC was timed nice though all with significant positions and just caught the turnaround!

Really looking forward to the results here.

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

‘ BANGKOK — The Chinese air force is sending fighter jets and bombers to Thailand for a joint exercise with the Thai military on Sunday.”

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/13/1117379225/china-thailand-joint-military-exercises

And…..

“ Kurt Campbell, a top advisor to President Joe Biden on the Indo-Pacific, said Friday that the U.S. would take resolute steps to support Taiwan, including sending warships and aircraft through the 160-kilometer (100-mile) wide waterway that separates Taiwan and China.”

This lot needs diffusing but my worry is the Chinese economy is so weak that Xi looks for a ‘national distraction’ to cover his mess up!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Agricore,

At least you have exited at an ATH. That in itself is an achievement!

If your expectation here was for significant capital gain I don’t think that this is that kind of stock.

I am here for income so not too bothered with intangible losses. I focus on the FCF, declines and divi cover. I also like the hedge as I want the yield.

So I think it’s fair to say that two people can look at the same stock and want something different and tolerate or not differing methodologies.

Anyways I appreciate your convictions and reasoning. Whether the conclusion is buy or sell as if we all had the same view there wouldn’t be a market!

Good luck with you next ventures. ATB.

Usual caveats

Trek

Wouldn’t to hard velladean,

US inflation figs of 8.5% likely saved the drop. No one expected that to land when it did. Softer numbers would lift the sp as higher inflation is what floored DLG recently

Main thing is you haven’t lost money.

If you are a longer term holder then I wouldn’t bother with trading the divi. If however you are trading then it’s an obvious inflexion point. You can of course do half and half as I do on many stocks.

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

Always going to be diametric views on hedging I guess when Henry Hub is on a roll.

I do think they will increase upside risk exposure as they were pretty clear during the presentation that macro for gas was favourable over the next few years.

The have more upside exposure +1 year out and could I guess not renew contracts as they expire.

But for now SP has closed solidly at an ATH! 131 resistance has been broken!

Let’s see a new trading range emerge!

Been a cracking week on the markets especially for my oil/gas plays!

Enjoy the sunshine

Usual caveats

Trek

“I have a target SP of 738?
Is that realistic and if so what time scale do you think that would be achieved?”

I think 700p will be a tough one to crack. Tbh SP is looking toppy now. I am not selling just saying.

We have results on Monday if a sell off follows then your target will defo have to wait. If there’s more buying momentum then I guess it’s possible. We could also get a regulator boost from solvency 2 ratio’s short term.

From a TA standpoint look back at how many times the sp has breached 700p in the last 5 years. It has actually spent quite a bit of time in the 700’s but I think with inflationary pressures and war it’s a tough call short term.

These stocks tend to have a good Christmas, that would be the earliest foray into your price range imo.

From here though I think it’s more likely to go back to 650 than through 700 before having another run. Hence I am happy to hold but wouldn’t add here now.

That’s all my opinion of course as The Kingdom are happy to buy!

Usual caveats

Trek

Crikey I didn’t quite expect it to move up immediately after I posted! Lol!

Will be back over 100p in a flash imo.

Low volume took us here up to that trade now it should rise in anticipation of a good set of financials.

Usual caveats

Trek

There was a lot of uncertainty with the coho hook-up and the EIA so folk sold and few bought. The SP dropped on low volumes.

I am not complaining as I added at 56.75.

Now we have had time for the market to absorb that Coho will double our boepd and the EIA paperwork should land on 15th Sept. The T&T govt have probably woken up to the thus far missed opportunity with the gas price. The vandalism costs were minimal and should be insured.

Well it’s all adding to a change in sentiment and that means a higher SP. I see this run taking us back to 114. It’s likely we will need more news to surpass that.

Cascadura when producing will move this into a completely different SP.

Most importantly for now the downside v upside risk balance has switched into our favour.

Wish I bought more but 100% of my ISA is TXP, rest is in Mrs Treks. I hope to eventually beat her exceptional performance with my single bet!

Usual caveats

Trek

Not so sure about it being the last chance as 1p will likely prove a toughie. Hope we smash it though!

I think the 6’s are defo gone and probably the 7’s now.

The technical indicators are getting ever more positive.

My average is now 0.8 so it’s nice to see a bit of blue at long last, but I have omitted the small loss on a forced sell earlier. Makes me feel better! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

What next?…..
Anyones guess but stay away from that donkey!

Just updated the spreadsheet and for each 10k shares you get £204.78 now compared to £199.40 previously due to fx tail winds!

Not bothered by the sell it’s a small amount.

Usual caveats

Trek

And back up we go. So having increased my position then sold with a 3p loss and now rebought 10p cheaper than I first topped up at so it’s not all bad even after factoring in missing the divi on them.

It’s just flipping needless hard work!

I just like a buy and forget stock that pays out +8% but it’s flipping hard work in the markets nowadays!

Brexit, covid, China hot, China cold, Evergrande, war and now inflation as if it’s a new beast that no one has ever heard of before apart from us boomers!

Should be back to your 125 soon Temple, if you still have em that is.

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s highly likely that the solvency 2 ratio’s will be eased in the future. The reason being to free cash for more likely for domestic infrastructure investments.

A policy change like that will lift all insurers a tad as cash is just in interest accounts not really working, well actually loosing out to inflation so has to be topped up!

Usual caveats

Trek

mass,

Nice first post but not the best trading tactics, watch the volume and 87p is hardly the moon! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Good explanation Ezhik,

I use that data all the time but you for got to add…..

Make sure you hit the refresh button and not the buy/sell button by mistake

As one numpty once did!

Usual caveats

Trek

It amazes me that given the size and duration of the Scotland trial and overseas use EarlyCDT lung hasn’t been more widely adapted in the UK. There was even a cost benefit analysis paper published last year either by or for the NHS.

Still if anyone has any cash I think we could see a run up to the results here. May be an opportunity to get one’s average down and sell into any rise if so inclined. Mine is now 1.07. I am happy with that.

On the bearish side my concerns are energy costs in Germany. Even though we aren’t a huge user there’s likely to be a significant increase but ONC should be able to pass that on albeit with a lag. I have no idea if they have or indeed need standby generators but it’s certainly a contingency I would put in place for any business nowadays.

Usual caveats

Trek

Just revisited the chart here. It is extremely bullish with 17 bullish events v 4 bearish.

Support is 118.16 for a 2-6 week view and resistance is 131.

We are well above the 20/50/200 dam’s obviously but interestingly we have a triple MA crossover of 4, 9 and 18 day averages which indicate a pop higher.

However, this share has historically traded in a range 100-125 for arguments sake. What I therefore see happening is it establishing a new higher range possible 120-140 or optimistically 130-150 rather than the huge breakout that the chart seems to be predicting, as that’s what charts do!

Still at 131 that’s an extra 10.4% back pa in divi’s paid quarterly, not bad eh!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Ourjambo,

“ Funny you should mention TXP, I see between April & beginning of June they were running around 90p but then took a nose dive to 50% down between July/August, did you see an injection of DERAMPER and new posters on the board over there saying how bad the investment was? I see how a good RNS has now turned them around and they have got back to earlier levels. Lets hope the same can happen here.”

TXP is a completely different BB to here. Not as many posters and many have been there like myself since 11-20p days with significant holdings.

During the pullback there was constructive criticism of the BoD from myself included. You can see my posts. But that BB has not been plagued by rampers like this one that have been posting ‘buy, buy, buy’ and if you look at the SP trajectory here it’s been at complete odds with their posts.

As for derampers, more of a case of a few pssd off folk with the delays rather than a ‘deramp attack’.

Imo unnecessary ramping and deramping equally crowds out any meaningful debate.

I do think the ‘rampers’ will be right one day though and I see this one rerating significantly at some point in the future.

All growth companies have hurdles to cross and if you aren’t able to call them out wether it be tubing or finance terms then you haven’t imo dug deep enough into your investments. It’s all to easy to just focus on the huge potential upside which we can all be guilty of.

Anyways not sure if that reply was of much help but I agree ‘let’s hope the same can happen here’.

I for one don’t mind buying back in and paying more as one should be paying for the news if it’s good and therefore less risk. That’s the theory anyway.

For now happy to wait until I see a few changes before I consider averaging back in at whatever SP.

Good luck with your investments

Usual caveats

Trek

I don’t get why there is an issue from some over the hedging. It’s smart and one of the reasons I invested as it underpins the divi along with the fixed debt terms running parallel with asset amortisation.

The current hedging, 12months is 70-90% but for 12-24 months out it’s 50-70% and thereafter 30-50% which is well explained on slide 25 of the August presentation….

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_d9ab8b80310b7340103f6a137e004aa1/dgoc/db/557/4588/pdf/DEC_Corporate_Presentation_August_2022.pdf

If you look at the May 22 ppt

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_ce1aee62713d8ebaa7fcdcd0196384bc/dgoc/db/557/4579/pdf/DEC_Investor_Presentation_May_2022.pdf

Or the 2021 finals you can see the costs of the hedging.

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_df03494d82123e89b1e7438e084616bb/dgoc/db/562/4578/pdf/DEC_2021_FINAL_RESULTS_PRESENTATION.pdf

Both now removed. Must have been ‘swapped!’ Lol or just housekeeping but I can’t be arsed to go through the accounts

I am comfortable here unless we get Director selling of course which would be in complete opposition to current sentiment as they are getting huge cash divi’s. I wouldn’t necessarily believe any associated reasons for selling I would likely just sell as well!

But that’s not an issue we have. The only issues I have are the swaps slip up and the radio silence on the floods. Both of course may be complete non events.

But then if you can’t criticise your investments then the chance is you haven’t really researched them!

Usual caveats

Trek

These must be subject to the 119% early redemption terms. On a flat basis they come out at 11.95p using the fx quoted in the RNS.

They are arguable just in the money. I don’t know where folk get the forward selling from. For that there would have to be a buyer and who would buy an unsecured bond for 13% interest even with the bells and whistles. In this instance Surely would buy the stock as it’s cheaper and easier to hedge and more liquid.

But as I have said before we do not know the ‘general terms’ we know shorting is prohibited (lol) but we don’t know if forward selling is.

Anyways whichever way you look at it even taking the 78% IF they sell these converted shares it makes little sense unless other discounts were applied which we are unaware of (likely). Art has a habit of not giving us all the info and then wonders why we don’t understand it!

E.g to illustrate take the broker shares. IF they accepted say £2m in shares for £1m in fees as a premium for stock over cash then the broker would sell the shares as anything over £1m ensures the wage bill is paid. So I get them selling.

However, the only reason I can think to convert the bonds to shares would be to either short your own stock or sell them to mitigate a wider risk. But this seems strange given that the ink on the deal is hardly dry!

However, that is why I am posting here rather than sweating over the machinations of risk managing corporate finance terms! But this is a hobby lol!

For disclosure I am on the sidelines again. This time with a ‘small’ loss watching with interest. Just glad I added at DEC and TXP instead for now!

Usual caveats

Trek

Or it could all end in tears and SEPL pull out saying it’s no longer investible due to regulatory and ESG constraints. Unlikely but you never know. In which case there would likely be a bumper special divi!

So from an investors standpoint you either put up with the pantomime and benefit from capex growth or you get an extra divi!

Such is the strength of SEPL’s balance sheet!

Don’t worry soon it will be it’s all ‘behind you!’

Usual caveats

Trek