Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi Jimzi,

Because of what you point out it is in TB’s interest to have the SP low within reason.

We need cash due to the 330k loss.

Fag packet numbers he has 18% of the company after resigning from free associated books

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/02768277/officers

So he can raise/dilute another 12% of IQAI without crossing the 30%.

He will no doubt want a discounted price but it still nets out around the same in terms of number of shares.

For illustration he takes 10% of £5m (mcap now) so that’s 500k.

That closes out the 330k half year loss and give us 170k to run with.

Fortunately there is still 212k in the CLN reserve based on the last interims (see consolidated balance sheet)

He has to be mindful that some directors options ‘in lieu of pay’ are at a higher SP. E.g Michael Schmainda last ones 4th Jan 22 RNS were 5.88p.

He has to get the SP back up as these guys are NOT getting remunerated appropriately imo. In last AR pay was 380k, directors 160k, highest director 100k.

Gotta consider the Oct 21 620k placing at 5p and the warrants at 7.5p that burnt after 3 months! Didn’t help confidence, but could argue as year ago they weren’t needed!

Or TB got a placing away and sweet talked the placees with warrants that were never going to land! Ouch!

Where does it leave us…

If we raise the ‘max’ (500k + 212k) clear losses 330k leaves us 382k. How much does it cost to run IQAI for a year, about 1.7m less 500k revs so 1.2m.

382k gives us around 6 mnths allowing for another 330k overspend. Familiar!

Something needs to break here to deliver revenues. The grants will distort these numbers but we won’t know the extent of that benefit until next results.

I am a fan of the tech, trust TB given his investment but not sure about finance beyond 6 months. I would like to see a partnership. 500k ffs or even 1m would make all the difference! Something will close the gap soon but until then hold imo.

Usual caveats

Trek

And the US now supplies more gas to Europe than Russia did at its peak!

3:30 in….

https://youtu.be/5IPzww2IHzM

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Trek

Love the gag!

-Dad, why is my sister's name Rose?
- Because your mother loves roses.
- Thanks dad.
- No problem, Himars.

Lol!

Trek

I know where I would rather be if the Chinese real estate bubble pops and sends trillions of USD junk bond shock waves into the financial system! Which is looking very plausible.

At least in the relative shelter of the US economy and with a hedge around us with an inflation beating divi one can sleep easier!

For growth I have a significant position in TXP & SAVE. For income DEC and SEPL.

I picked Nigeria for demographic upside and US, T&T for relative stability. The tax system in T&T can only get better in the UKCS it’s too risky and as for fracking in UK. Even if it was awarded by one govt it could be removed by the next.

Would I touch the likes of IGAS, EDR, I3E etc nope. Don’t mean there’s anything wrong with them I am just looking for other parameters and see DEC as an unbelievable opportunity. Even more so having had an email exchange with the company.

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Trek

I noticed that but most of the top ones are out and out rampers from the popular BB’s, COPL, GGP, EUA etc. at least Troajan posts data backed opinions!

Tecan £10 by Christmas!

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Trek

China admits economic difficulty. Also info on recent drought in China and significance.

https://youtu.be/zAln0kO5J9s

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Trek

Heard most of this before and the bloke is annoying but from 6 mins 30secs.

China been issuing consumption vouchers to encourage spending!

4 companies delisted from NYSE because they said it was expensive. Turns out they couldn’t meet audit compliance.

Another 100 odd Chinese companies likely in same boat and no surprise international auditors not allowed in China due to security concerns.

https://youtu.be/4JEdz1eA2vQ

Anyways watching closely as with oil being my three largest positions for income China is a house of cards!

Just hope they don’t pick on Taiwan for distraction!

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Trek

Interesting choke points for China oil.

https://youtu.be/Q4OYmfRnzmY

Trek

This may help. It’s not a tangible loss…

“ As the gain or losses on the speculative transactions are to be recorded immediately, it may result in an initial loss at the balance sheet date and subsequent gain at the end of the contract period or vice versa, which creates complexity in the accounts.”

Definitely succeeded in achieving ‘complexity’

https://www.educba.com/accounting-for-derivatives/

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Trek

Thanks MJ didn’t cross my mind sensitivity.

When I was a lad we regularly had to replace telecoms cables that was stolen for copper. They’d cut off hospitals, police stations, villages without a care. Got better security in place now with monitoring, registration at scrapie’s and newer cable ID.

Railways is worse. People often die not realising it’s HV!

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Trek

CLN’s

Page 36 explains the CLN but the pdf won’t allow me to copy onto here.

Section 18 on page 44 gives last years breakdown in the AR

https://iqai.ltd/wpiqai/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2021-12-31-IQ-AI-Annual-Report.pdf

What I am trying to find is a copy of the articles of association. Can’t find it on the websites. Does anyone have a link else I will have to email the registrar.

It’s pretty clear from the half year report that the company is on fumes! If you don’t get that just look at the SP reaction! The grants are for work related to the grant not bau ops which is a different pot of cash.

I think the consensus is to expect further dilution at 2p via CLN issuance. I guess it’s up to individuals to decide at what point they see value here. Some say a penny some 2p others up to 50p!

Anyone new looking in I would average any buys into here not all at once. The SP could go any where short term. Longer term it looks very promising once we get through the next round of finance. A different company by Christmas imo.

Each to own.

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Trek

“Shorting the Stock of a Company That Goes Bankrupt
By BRIAN BEERS Updated October 08, 2021
Fact checked by TIMOTHY LI
What happens when an investor maintains a short position in a company that gets delisted and declares bankruptcy? The answer is simple—the investor never has to pay back anyone because the shares are worthless.

Companies sometimes declare bankruptcy with little warning. Other times, there is a slow fade to the end. A short seller who didn't buy back the stock before trading stopped may have to wait until the company is liquidated to take a profit.

However, the short seller owes nothing. That is the best possible scenario for a short seller. Eventually, the broker will declare a total loss on the loaned stock. At that point, the broker cancels the short seller's debt and returns all collateral…”

‘ KEY TAKEAWAYS

A short seller who doesn't buy back the stock before bankruptcy may have to wait until the company is liquidated to take a profit but never has to pay back anyone.

It is essential to realize that it is brokerages and not the companies themselves that allow short selling.

A short seller makes a profit by borrowing shares, selling them on the market at a specific value, and then repurchasing the shares at a lower price.

Short selling is a risky way to profit from a declining stock, and most individual investors should avoid it.’

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/maintain-short-position-delisted-stock/

So the short seller doesn’t make anything but has to wait which means they loose out on potential gains.

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Trek

Shorts loose as well if a stock goes bankrupt as the underlying instrument isn’t tradeable so you can’t offload the loaned stock.

Not sure about CFD’s though.

I don’t hold here, just looking in and learning.

Hope it comes good.

Good luck with your investments

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Trek

Hi Scott,

Interesting that you mention pipe. I am aware that COPL are experiencing supply constraints with pipe. It’s still on back order.

Do you think TXP have enough for their immediate ops. I note their recent statement on readiness and assume the pipe would have been a long lead time item.

TIA

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Trek

Had a fantastic reply from Eric,

Here’s an extract…..

“ I also appreciate your concern for our people. We certainly had employees whose lives were affected, and as a corporate family – we moved quickly to help them logistically and financially. We live in the communities in which we work, so weather as severe as we experienced touches many people – including those in the DEC family.

As a public company, you’ll appreciate that were we to experience any significant operational disruption, you’d see us make a public statement. Accordingly, our broad footprint across the basin helps to mitigate the business effects of these type events on our overall operations. Where we did encounter some disruption, the team’s worked hard to quickly address. All in – we were blessed.”

These guys at DEC seem a genuine caring team. I was so impressed by his words and reply.

People that are looked after work well and ultimately we benefit on a human and business level. It also means you can read across that they take things like ESG seriously as good behaviours are naturally in the bloodstream.

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Trek

“ Diversified Energy
I met with senior management of DEC this week while they were over and whilst there is nothing specific to update after recent results I am happy to report that the policy of strong growth and a priority of rewarding shareholders is very much to the fore.

I would not be surprised to see further accretive acquisitions, either in upstream assets or in ESG and the path to net zero is now looking to be an important one and with financing via sustainability-linked loans all the boxes are being ticked.

Finally I mentioned after those interims and the updated presentation that I liked the fact that the company felt strongly that the share price has ‘decoupled from commodity prices’, not unusual I agree but a valid point. The disconnect between the share price and the long-term natural gas price does indeed create an opportunity and that is with the shares having risen recently by some 35% since July 6th.

With such strong asset backing provided by the long term hedged gas reserves, and associated cash flow, the excellent management continues to drive the business hard and I am convinced that they are in the right place to deliver the shareholder returns they have and that the shares have plenty of upside in them from here. ”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/08/oil-price-diversified-energy-gran-tierra-sdx-and-finally/

Malcy must be reading my posts! Lol!.

The gas commodity price disconnect was 50% at the last presentation 11th August, SP was 131 then.

Slide 12….

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_f6c6e475ef1d169fc15e3717261c2b1a/dgoc/db/557/4588/pdf/DEC_Corporate_Presentation_August_2022.pdf

Still I agree the disconnect is a driver but it’s imo a combination of that and the acquisitions (my earlier posts) that have driven the rerate. Note the SP has thus far just onboarded the acquisition and perhaps some HH price going by the charts.

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Trek

Many overlook comparing POG to domestic currency for investors.

Imo CB’s are chasing USD as it’s out performing gold compared to local currency.

EM’s debts is USD. If you have IOU’s you would prefer your foreign reserves to be in USD as opposed to gold.

Countries that have capacity do both, like BRIC’s but bias to USD. For many EM’s the pseudo currency is embedded as USD. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Gold buffs will tell ya that the Fed have printed themselves into oblivion, inflation has eroded fiat, gold standard, Basel 3 the traders death nail! At the end of the day we have heard that narrative for decades!

Meanwhile USD has gone from strength to strength!

Imo it’s not a case of one camp or another, it’s a case of using gold to underwrite USD. So as USD looks more vulnerable so will gold be more attractive.

Atm the market is just focusing on returns of USD v Gold it’s not that simple.

The narrative will change when the market sees a chink in USD’s attraction and that will imo be economic. So gold will be a hedge and perhaps BTC although I am not convinced but appreciate that is a view.

Gotta give it to Biden. Huge trillion $ Keynesian infrastructure spend starts next month after years in planning. Legislation to streamline commodity exploitation, smoother planning and permitting regs have just been passed.

It’s to kickstart the economy. All the right moves imo (don’t get me onto UK plc’s decades of missed opportunities!)

But that’s all spending. All borrowing. All necessary. All points to an epoch of weakness in USD.

Then for the macro purists factor in population demographics. 2050 the world goes negative, deaths overtake births. Some countries like China which have 100 people working to support 20 pensioners will see a reversal. 100 people will be in work but there will be 120 pensioners! Birth rates there are down 12% since one child and covid..

The emerging populous, India! Lovers of gold! conjecture lol, but gold investors 10-20yr view is what will matter!

Macro is the driver for gold and art.

“China’s baby bust is so dramatic, it’s accelerating a long-expected global population shift.

A new report from the United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs released Monday puts China and India neck-and-neck in the population rankings. The UN estimates that China currently has 1.426 billion people, while India has 1.412 billion.

But the UN predicts the two Asian countries will switch places next year—four years earlier than it previously predicted…”

https://fortune.com/2022/07/12/china-population-india-birth-rates-baby-bust-worlds-most-populous-country/

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Trek

Good finish today. Who’d have thought blue!

Confidence here imo.

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Wow that’s a great finish today, 140. Good from TA perspective!

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Trek

Just need to get through next 3 months in the range of .7 to .9 and I will be happy.

POG has gone from $400 an Oz to $1800 since 2004

Inflation doesn’t shift in one year it sticks and currently it will mean your cash will be worth 50% less by 2030! That’s a huge loss in spending power within a timeframe that many can appreciate.

It won’t be long before folk realise the value of producers or of course you could spend all your money now! Lol!

Think I will bag an ‘undervalued’ smallcap producer with huge rerate potential to get some inflation and gold leverage!

“ Gold prices weakened to a three-week low past $1,760 an ounce on Friday and were on track to end the week sharply lower, weighed down by the US Federal Reserve’s commitment to keep raising interest rates to bring down inflation. The US central bank's hawkish stance has pushed up the dollar to a one-month high against major rivals, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. In the latest Fed commentary, St. Louis Fed Bank President James Bullard said he is considering support for a third straight 75-basis point rate hike in September and said he is not ready to say the economy has seen the worst of the inflation surge. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse recently joined Goldman Sachs in slashing price targets for gold, citing pressure from rising real rates and the Fed’s resolve in bringing down inflation.”

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold

The delta between US inflation 8.5% and US 10yr treasuries, 2.99% , is still 5.5%. Putting rates up by another 75bps doesn’t change it that significantly. It just shows that the Fed intend to support the USD to make imports cheaper. But then when the payrolls stall, trade balances decline, wage costs rise and tax receipts diminish due to a slowdown then comes the oh sht moment as you can’t stimulate with rate cuts! That puts back in place the QE loop!

Don’t believe what the brokers tell ya. They have their own book to push and that will be physical and paper gold for as cheap as they can get it!

I have been pretty ambivalent on gold. The conspiracies have mostly come to pass and the USD has marched on. Whilst I don’t think the USD is in jeopardy I do think gold may just at last have its day again because of real inflation. This time it looks very different.

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Trek