Member Info for TrekMadone

Depends on how many and your trading costs but I always take cash.

Usual caveats

Trek

“ The annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming starts on Thursday, under the theme 'Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy'. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a keynote speech at 8 am Friday morning local time in the western US state, which is 1400 GMT.

There are concerns that the Fed's aggressive approach to combating soaring inflation could lead to a recession in the US, which could, in turn, hit a global economy still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic.”

No sht Sherlock! Jerome should read the Tecan BB! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

That’ll help.

Directors sell for a multitude of reasons but they tend to only buy for one reason!

Well deserved bounce with the market today.

Good luck!

Usual caveats

Trek

I hold SEPL, established trading range 113-130. You can read posts over there.

Organic growth with new pipeline improving efficiencies, divi quarterly and huge cover with chance of upside from acquisition of Exxon assets. Nigerian legal treacle, obfuscation and kickbacks aside if it comes off +140kboepd total to SEPL!

But reason why I am invested is because of Nigerian economic and population growth plus income. Nigeria need to up production to meet OPEC quota. Then there’s chance of LNG exports.

I prefer Nigeria to UKCS, you know where you are with their problems. UK far too risky with fiscal changes, independence, recession etc!

Usual caveats

Trek

Telegraph today….

“ Rio Tinto has increased its offer to buy out Turquoise Hill Resources to $3.1bn (£2.6bn) as it moves to gain more control of a giant copper mine in Mongolia.

The Anglo-Australian miner said it was offering C$40a share to Turquoise Hill’s minority shareholders – 18pc higher than its previous bid of C$34 that was rejected earlier this month.

Shares in Turquoise Hill surged 24pc – their biggest intraday increase since March.

Rio Tino is pushing to take control of the giant Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia amid a shift towards commodities that are key for the green energy transition.

Rio owns 51pc of Turquoise Hill, which in turn holds a two-thirds share in Oyu Tolgoi.”

There’s a long term appetite amongst the majors imo

Usual caveats

Trek

Dropped back a little to 9.3 but futures are over 10….

“ US natural gas futures pared early gains and dropped to below the $9.2/MMBtu mark in a volatile session on Tuesday, after Freeport LNG announced that it will delay the restart of its Quintana export plant to November, backtracking previous statements of an October restart. The pushback of the resumption of flows from the export plant to outside the US prevents the earlier withdraw of natural gas from storage for outbound shipments. Earlier in the session, futures topped the $10/MMBtu mark for the first time in over 14 years, supported by expectations of increased demand for US LNG exports amid increasingly large concerns of shortages in Europe. Russia's Gazprom said it would halt flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe for three days of maintenance at the end of August. The main channel between Russia and Europe was already running at 20% capacity, putting pressure on the region as it seeks to refuel ahead of winter to avoid a natural gas shortage.”

Here’s the price USD

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Here’s the outlook….

“ Natural gas is expected to trade at 9.86 USD/MMBtu by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 11.91 in 12 months time.”

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Usual caveats

Trek

Well selling at 676-680 would have easily covered the divi. Could now be sat on the sidelines and waiting to buy back in in the weeks after the divi when the SP will likely nadir.

I did contemplate it but decided to hold as I have a very low average here so can ride the drop.

Kinda pleased to see it coming down as if it goes below 600 support I will buy more for a longer term tuck away and again if 580 goes.

Don’t for one moment think it’s not possible such is the madness atm!

Usual caveats

Trek

I don’t see any reductions to energy prices short term. I even suspect it’s going to get much worse.

All my opinion but I think China and Russia have stumbled on a rather unique playbook in the aftermath of covid. Covid has exposed the economic and political weaknesses in the west.

China have worked out that they CAN export inflation. So imo the lockdowns are exaggerated, they have same jabs, same boosters, same percentile inoculation.

They have a controlled population. That’s why they can switch off energy to residential areas due to drought affecting the hydro plant so that Tesla can keep the USD’s coming in! A controlled population just tolerates it !

Then compare to the West where historically hyper inflation leads to civil unrest.

Contrary to what many may think the US and NATO still have the upper hand in high tech firepower.

So the way you beat a democracy is to create an enemy within. Inflation, unions, political unrest, bankrupt social services. We will then do the rest ourselves. Remember the riots in London. There will be more.

Then notice how quiet Putin has been. Getting ready to switch the lights off to add to the turmoil.

Then you throw in a few well rehearsed cyberattacks to add to the chaos and see how China masters TikTok to put the searches they want to the top to focus mass behaviour. Same as they did in Kenya to help steer the election results.

The pay disputes are just the start. Our govt have to break the inflationary pay cycle. China/Russia know we spent out on covid.

For sure the Russian and Chinese people will suffer but they are tougher than us and no one will hear them scream!

It’s all happening in plain sight. We just don’t want to acknowledge it and worse when you rewind it’s an avoidable predicament that we find ourselves in. Chasing cheap, offshoring, blindly allowing access to hi tech to autocracies. Selling arms. Tolerating currency devaluation and copyright abuse. The list goes on!

Don’t get me wrong I am not say WW3 what I am saying is no way will China and Russia allow this opportunity to pass without a good attempt at hitting our economies and way of life hard. Just to level things a bit and coz they can!

Usual caveats

Trek

Now see why China have a zero covid policy, same jabs, same boosters and why Russia have gone relatively quiet playing the long game.

Best way to defeat democracy is to create an enemy from within!

Usual caveats

Trek

Just to add don’t worry about Tesla.

China switched off the energy to their people so they can keep the dollars rolling in!

Usual caveats

Trek

This covers the drought with some footage. Well worth a 5min watch.

Gotta remember though that India bashes China, supports Putin not keen on the west. That of course plays out in their independent media!

https://youtu.be/zAln0kO5J9s

Usual caveats

Trek

PAY giving back most of its gains. Pretty much as expected but if it goes below 600p imo buy! Intent has been set. It’s down on low volumes.

It will likely trade around 6 before another pop back up.

They do smart cards for smart meters, click collect, shop local and small over the counter cash! Hard times stuff!

They like SMS could get a boost from the smart meter rush that no one has clocked yet! Off peak energy rebates need a smart meter.

Looks like I may have to book one after saying no for soooo long coz they tell fibs!!

SMS moved up today it does well in high vix. I have traded it lots!

Usual caveats

Trek

Jackson Hole again + Ukraine Independence Day anticipation and 6 month anniversary. Pressure on Putin to let the world know he’s serious and has recruited 1000’s from the countryside!

“ U.S. stock futures fell Monday morning following a halt in the summer rally last week, as fears of aggressive interest rate hikes returned to Wall Street.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 321 points, or by 0.95%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.22% and 1.57%, respectively.

On Friday, the S&P 500 closed down 1.29%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 292 points, or 0.86%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.01%.

Those moves come ahead of what could be a volatile week of trading on Wall Street. Investors are anticipating Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s latest comments on inflation at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole economic symposium.

“We’ve written a couple of times recently about wait and see trading ahead of key events/releases... and how that can set the stage for greater volatility around the events themselves, and we may see a bit of that play out next week as investors await the symposium,” read a Friday note from Susquehanna’s Christopher Jacobson.

On the earnings front, traders are expecting Palo Alto Networks and Zoom Video to report results Monday after the bell.”

Zoom could be a huge miss!

Gonna be a great week for trading! Yikes!

Usual caveats

Trek

Found it!

Here is a link which gives more detail. See the table. Also be aware that google searches sometimes come back with US rules or other market rules.

For full understanding check London stock exchange

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/Dividend%20Procedure%20Timetable%202022.pdf

Usual caveats

Trek

You have an xd date. 25th
And a record date. 26th
And a payment date 12th sep.

Keeping it simple to qualify you must hold the stock from the close of the 25th into the open of the 26th to get payment on the 12th.

Moving on…. Midas like PHNX

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-11129671/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-Revitalise-funds-Phoenix-revives-pensions.html

So do I but like I said we will more likely see 650 than 700 in the immediate future. 700 may come with Santa which is usually a good time for insurers.

I rate PHNX a hold if you are in or a buy on the dips.

We may see a pullback after divi which will let some in for a longer term buy.

Putin may have a silly on Wednesday, we’ll have to wait and see.

I expected DLG to pull back on XD but it didn’t because the day before xd the US inflation figures came out softer . It was the inflationary impact on costs that pegged the stock back to 200p so a softening netted out as a benefit. That happens, there is no guarantees in stock predictions.

Just gotta get more right that wrong or some exceptional performers to compensate for the inevitable ‘dogs’!

Usual caveats

Trek

“ short positions can take an eternity to actually be paid out in full.”

I assume by in full he means get their cash out….. I posted this on CINE as peeps were debating the merits…

“ “Shorting the Stock of a Company That Goes Bankrupt
By BRIAN BEERS Updated October 08, 2021
Fact checked by TIMOTHY LI
What happens when an investor maintains a short position in a company that gets delisted and declares bankruptcy? The answer is simple—the investor never has to pay back anyone because the shares are worthless.

Companies sometimes declare bankruptcy with little warning. Other times, there is a slow fade to the end. A short seller who didn't buy back the stock before trading stopped may have to wait until the company is liquidated to take a profit.

However, the short seller owes nothing. That is the best possible scenario for a short seller. Eventually, the broker will declare a total loss on the loaned stock. At that point, the broker cancels the short seller's debt and returns all collateral…”

‘ KEY TAKEAWAYS

A short seller who doesn't buy back the stock before bankruptcy may have to wait until the company is liquidated to take a profit but never has to pay back anyone.

It is essential to realize that it is brokerages and not the companies themselves that allow short selling.

A short seller makes a profit by borrowing shares, selling them on the market at a specific value, and then repurchasing the shares at a lower price.

Short selling is a risky way to profit from a declining stock, and most individual investors should avoid it.’

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/maintain-short-position-delisted-stock/ “

So the short seller doesn’t make anything but has to wait which means they loose out on potential gains from elsewhere.

Usual caveats

Trek

Grail test

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11132485/Holy-grail-trialled-NHS-save-thousands-lives-detecting-cancer-symptoms-show.html

Nothing in here on ours. Wether it will be coupled no idea. Not researched grail so can’t comment on their dataset.

Usual caveats

Trek

Geeforce, yes the current cash 354k less liabilities plus a raise will likely give us a runrate through a year.

I assumed pay and admin cost (1m pa) were separate.

I would also expect a payment from Bayer to come through at some point. We can’t just load our science on their platform for free!

The frustration here is that some biotechs that have so much less run at huge deficits and we have amazing science a clinical trial and fda pending and what cash we require cash is so comparatively ‘small’.

Whilst a fan of what TB is doing a criticism is he has left the finance to scientists which has certainly helped with grants but imo we would have benefited from an active sales lead to deliver more on contracts and revenues rather than just depending on CLN’s.

Given the amount of exposure the Brown family have here makes me think they want it ‘all’ themselves. Hence no meaningful partnerships.

However, the indication that TB will fund this at ‘whatever cost’ must be a positive but it just doesn’t sit well for investors that have supported the company at much higher levels. Each shareholder letter has been on the cusp of delivering exceptional returns.

Perhaps this time it is indeed different?

Usual caveats

Trek

Lol Suggins,

I have worked with ‘SAfer’s’ many times in the past. Not sure if I am allowed to say that now but I mean it affectionately and it was ‘appropriate’ at the time… Anyways…

Hard men, hard working, broad accents, strange sense of humour…. At least I think so as most of them were called ‘pardon’.

????????

Trek

Kenny,

Thanks for posting. I have played em like a fiddle. Traded in and out and now back in with an average below 570 and a nice divi to collect! Posted a few of my timings over there.

I now think it will be Santa before the next leg up macro aside.

Usual caveats

Trek