Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi Temple,

Got mine back at the bell that I sold for 121 ish. No liquidity early doors hence 2 x 1k

31/08/2022Buy QRRxxx 1000£1.1638£1167.79
31/08/2022Buy QRRXxxx1000£1.18051£1,184.50
31/08/2022Buy QRRXxxx 8000£1.185£9483.99
31/08/2022Buy QRRXxxx 10000£1.1865£11868.99

Looks like we both have a similar view!

Got cash to add from other sells incase this little relief following China easing fizzles out.

Could do with some more news though so we don’t have all this messing about! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Armchair trader article on copper. Worth a read as has good balance. Make our own minds up!

https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/copper-supply-tightens-china-heatwave/

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Trek

Been back through RNS headlines as far as last placing but does anyone know the position of Lombard. I note they have reduced. We’re they involved in previous finance or just an investor.

Still got more to read but TIA

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Trek

China - country Gardens, China’s biggest property developer sees profits down 96%….

Note words “severe depression”!

“ China’s biggest property developer Country Garden Holdings has reported a 96% drop in profits, blaming a “severe depression” in the country’s crisis-hit property market in which “only the fittest can survive”.

“The company, which is listed in Hong Kong, said preliminary net profit collapsed from 15bn yuan ($2bn) to 612m yuan ($88m) in the first six months of the year thanks to the housing market crisis that is slowly engulfing the Chinese economy……”

It goes on to say that it’s all not bad…..!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/chinas-biggest-property-developer-country-garden-sees-profits-plunge-96?utm_term=630db90c6180f5d397be53d801cd6a63&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

Gotta take a read across for energy from this. Even my fav DEC which has downside hedging dropped today. Hedging is mostly for price not always volume (I have to dig more later) but the point is the hawkish Fed and the impotent govs are driving us towards demand destruction!

Usual caveats

Trek

That’s some decent conviction. I have noticed how this one occasionally opens lower at the bell and then pulls back up if little volume. Sometimes you can get lucky first thing. Given the sell off started pm there may be some early sells tomorrow.

It’s all second guessing but just sharing an observation.

Will see how it goes with a view to feeding back in over a few days.

Good luck!

Usual caveats

Trek

30mins ago - Reuters…

“ PARIS, Aug 30 (Reuters) - France accused Moscow on Tuesday of using energy supplies as "a weapon of war" after Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) cut deliveries to a major French customer and said it would shut its main gas pipeline to Germany for three days this week.

European governments are trying to coordinate a response to soaring energy costs for businesses and households and to fill storage facilities ahead of peak demand in the winter.”

Thing is though the cure for high energy prices is high energy prices but the cost is very high as well. Recession and folks livelihoods! It will all balance out again soon but too risky atm esp O&G where some folk think it’s a one way bet!

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/france-accuses-russia-using-gas-weapon-war-2022-08-30/

For transparency I have reduced here and a few others for that matter and even sold out of some just today. Taken a mix of profits and losses but have cash to add back in possibly at a lower level. If I have to pay more so be it but markets imo could drop significantly. The Dow is still overvalued and even if uk is cheaper it will follow down if Dow drops.

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Trek

Results - I don’t know why they didn’t have sept in first place!

I have taken back the ones I bought in the 70/80’s to leave my original amount invested. Seemed sensible given the market turmoil atm!

Usual caveats

Trek

Well done Temple I have sold half 121 average. Bagged some profit and hope for 115 now. Mr market catching on to recession means lower HC prices. Have had to break trades up again. Sht liquidity here for buy and sell.

Still bullish on SEPL and hope to get more shares now

I have sold quite a few other stocks today. Think it’s wise to hold some cash even if you pay more to get back on.

Usual caveats

Trek

All out now whilst still in profit and bagged divi as well. No need to have cash on risk here. Macro numbers are awful, can buy back in later.

Next xd isn’t until end of March so plenty of time. Will look to average back in from Nov in case of Santa rally. It doesn’t matter if it costs more. I am still bullish on PHNX but just playing safe for a while now.

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Trek

It’s why I have some of IQAI….punters now can pick up at bargain basement levels. Be warned I expect to see a 3-500k CLN placing soon. But look at the mcap…£5m!

“ Imaging Biometrics Submits FDA 510(k) Application for IB Zero G

Patented Artificial Intelligence Technology Eliminates the Need for Gadolinium-Based Contrast Agents in MRI Exams

Milwaukee - 31 May 2022: Imaging Biometrics, LLC (IB), a subsidiary of IQ-AI Limited, (OTCQB: IQAIF) (LSE: IQAI), today announced it has submitted an FDA 510(k) application for IB Zero G™; the patented artificial intelligence (AI) software that eliminates the need for gadolinium-based contrast agents ("GBCAs") in routine magnetic resonance imaging ("MRI") exams. The zero-dose GBCA exam offers potential benefits which include reduced concerns associated from the long-term side effects of repeated GBCA use, a more comfortable patient experience, and more productive radiology departments.

The FDA 510(k) submission is the first step in potentially transforming the global GBCA market and introducing a paradigm shift in radiology departments. Eliminating the need to intravenously inject GBCAs, without compromising the diagnostic quality of MRI exams, has the potential to benefit millions of patients annually. Patients with reduced kidney function who cannot tolerate GBCAs, children, and others where there are concerns about the potential effects of gadolinium retention in the body are particularly relevant to the availability of a zero-dose alternative.

"In addition to the potential benefits of eliminating or reducing the routine use of GBCAs, the recent world-wide shortages of iodinate contrast agents have illustrated how vulnerable routine radiology operations have become to the continuation of smooth-running global supply chains which we have previously taken for granted," said Trevor Brown, CEO of IQ-AI Limited.”

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/IQAI/submission-of-fda-510k-application-for-ib-zero-g-2o5viy31ed2ot0v.html

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Trek

Exit plan… emigrate to Russia!

https://youtube.com/shorts/CV9bCXIwFTc?feature=share

+ Satire!

Trek

British volt - kicking the battery further down the road…

From FT today…

“ The start-up at the heart of Britain’s ambition to build an electric-car industry will not deliver batteries from a planned £3.8bn gigafactory for another three years as soaring energy costs hamper the project, its co-founder has said.

Since it was set up just three years ago, Britishvolt has touted its own ability to develop the batteries required to build a domestic electric car industry and reduce the risk of relying on the Asian companies that dominate the market.

Although the company, which was co-founded by Orral Nadjari and Lars Carlstrom in 2019, has yet to publicly showcase its technology, it has won backing from mining company Glencore and FTSE 100 group Ashtead.

The UK government has also pledged a £100mn grant to help unlock financing for the group’s gigafactory in Blyth, north-east England, which Britishvolt had originally earmarked would start production by late 2023. It has since said the plant would be ready in 2024.

However, Nadjari, who left as the company’s chief executive earlier this month but remains its largest shareholder, said a combination of factors would push production back until the middle of 2025.

“It does go hand-in-hand with the fact that we have inflation, we have recession and we have geopolitical uncertainties,” the former banker said in his first interview since Britishvolt announced his exit. “The main facility will be delayed slightly into mid 2025.”…….”

https://www.ft.com/content/5d65d6fd-cfc9-40c7-98c1-7b31a57f96ec

Trek

All my opinion but I think China and Russia have stumbled on a rather unique playbook in the aftermath of covid. Covid has exposed the economic and political weaknesses in the west.

China have worked out that they CAN export inflation. So imo the lockdowns are exaggerated, they have same jabs, same boosters, same percentile inoculation.

They have a controlled population. That’s why they can switch off energy to residential areas due to drought affecting the hydro plant so that Tesla can keep the USD’s coming in! A controlled population just tolerates it !

Then compare to the West where historically hyper inflation leads to civil unrest.

Contrary to what many may think the US and NATO still have the upper hand in high tech firepower.

So the way you beat a democracy is to create an enemy within. Inflation, unions, political unrest, bankrupt social services. We will then do the rest ourselves. Remember the riots in London. There will be more.

Then notice how quiet Putin has been. Getting ready to switch the lights off to add to the turmoil.

Then you throw in a few well rehearsed cyberattacks to add to the chaos and see how China masters TikTok to put the searches they want to the top to focus mass behaviour. Same as they did in Kenya to help steer the election results.

The pay disputes are just the start. Our govt have to break the inflationary pay cycle. China/Russia know we spent out on covid.

For sure the Russian and Chinese people will suffer but they are tougher than us and no one will hear them scream!

It’s all happening in plain sight. We just don’t want to acknowledge it and worse when you rewind it’s an avoidable predicament that we find ourselves in. Chasing cheap, offshoring, blindly allowing access to hi tech to autocracies. Selling arms. Tolerating currency devaluation and copyright abuse. The list goes on!

Don’t get me wrong I am not say WW3 what I am saying is no way will China and Russia allow this opportunity to pass without a good attempt at hitting our economies and way of life hard. Just to level things a bit and coz they can!

Usual caveats

Trek

Agree but unfortunately it always seems to happen….

IQAI could do with a partner, think most of us on same page there apart from TB who seems hell bent on going alone!

“ So, what you do if you are of limited means is get your asset as far through the clinical trial process as possible. After that you find a partner with pockets deep enough to finish the work started by the small-cap R&D specialist….”

Link from Troajan

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/990003/little-large-smaller-drug-developers-are-tying-up-partnerships-earlier-in-the-discovery-process-990003.html

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Trek

Aph is a royalty company so they take a % of sales/profits - forget what exactly but….. Great in inflationary environment as they don’t have to foot the cost end as the miner has to carry that.

That is until inflation tips to = slow down then they get the same % but of sd all!

It’s why I like DEC, tipped here actually. I have posted lots over there so won’t repeat but I like that they hedged downside and held divi when covid POO was near zero. Albeit they are pretty much all gas but it’s a similar read across.

I like TXP……huge ops upside, regulatory improvements incoming, huge geo upside, safe juro etc pivitol fxd price gas contract coming on line soon, more to follow. Early Heavy lifting is pretty much done. Massive expo upside funded by ops. Big divi payer in years ahead imo.

DeC……hedged in the USA…..selling gas to ship to Europe. Even with recession I see gas demand holding as long as Russia not back in but I don’t see these doomsday prices staying. Hence I prefer hedge to bandwagons!

SEPL…. So cheap/ debt free soon/organic growth + a chance of Exxon acquisition going through. Divi well covered. You can see my math over there. Nigeria is the place to be. Young demographic and energy/gdp/capita catch-up. Takes out China/US/Russia/European sabre rattling as can grow alone also big renewables upsides. All makes up for terrorists and crooks. Similar to UK just without the AK’s!

SAVE….Nigeria as well, earlier in the growth phase than sepl but v cheap on whatever metric you want just needs to print a divi. Should happen next year. Also renewables project. SP on way back to 40p resistance imo.

Both later should benefit from further majors divesting once legislators get act together!

There are many many others on my watchlist like PANR, CHAR. COPL etc etc but my choices win through many others on the balance sheet as well as the other usual DD…

Can they withstand a recessionary shock with a +50% reduction in HC prices…. That’s really the question to be asking. I think my choices can esp after the last high HC run has aided the balance sheets.

Anyone else got some recs where they have skin in em. My top 4, I have held TXP/SAVE for over three years including the odd trades. SEPL & DEC are the most recent additions and I intend to hold them bar a major fk up for long term.

It takes ages to sift through so many options to find some that you want to build a position in.

Usual caveats

Trek

“ economical indicators?”

Interesting indicator. If you look at the 5 year it’s come back down to mean. Slightly above covid.

When you assume grain must have been lower (war) hence tick down from May and now should theoretically be picking back up.

But the price remains down so I assume since the post covid Evergiven peak excess capacity has not been taken up by other product mix. Hence, it’s now cheaper to get a crate on a boat.

If the price index continues back to the covid 500’s then that doesn’t bode well!

Doesn’t matter if it’s because of China lockdowns or higher interest rates it indicates movement of goods has slowed.

But as always with stats. We can only infer that as it doesn’t pie out the overall tonnage or surplus capacity.

So we could have a lot more half full boats. But I doubt it!

And of course all this feeds into the oil and knock on energy ‘anticipation’ albeit there are many other factors to consider.

Thinky emoji with the monocle!

Usual caveats

Trek

Coal prices, yep I nailed TGA from memory around 180 then sold out at 900 ish. Doh!

Trek

I used to hold APF but sold a while back. Was disappointed with their returns, over dependence on cobalt, prematurely offloading coal so sold but intended to look back later.

With recession do you think there will be an electric car rush? Why is Elon laying off/not recruiting.

I am also not bearish but defo not bullish on lithium. Was rare soon to be ubiquitous. Copper is different. Copper is infrastructure!

When the good times return buy CAML…. Copper/metals miner on doorstep of Ukraine. Any hint of rebuilding and I will be piling in! They should be debt free just after Christmas so may buy back in there later anyway.

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Trek

Macro outlook for gas - excellent data

Posted by Troajan on TECAN

https://youtu.be/0Ws3YgumfoI

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Trek

So there’s also info on telegram.

It would be helpful if the company used RNS reach, their own website and/or video publications.

As one who refuses to subscribe to much of social media because of their failings in key areas one should not therefore be excluded from company news. To promote news to one selection of investors to the exclusion of others is discrimination based on social media preference. It’s unacceptable.

Not impressed!

Usual caveats

Trek