Member Info for TrekMadone

Grabbed 5k shares at the bell today at around 193. Just as a trade following the street’s bounce last night. Didn’t expect a bounce so early! Looking to exit at over 6. Will see how it goes. Gotta remember this has come from 680 so my original 570 buys may not come around again following divi increase.

This stock is great for trading as has good liquidity and follows the chart pretty well but MOST importantly if you get it wrong either not timing the lows or getting stuck at a higher SP it really doesn’t matter as long as you are happy to hold.

There’s always another chance with this vix and you have the divi’s. You also have the kingdom buying much higher which helps!

Usual caveats

Trek

Took advantage of the dip and grabbed next lot. Looking through numbers last night I have divi covered by cash as debt repayments leave the balance sheet and assuming they hit guidance.

They should have around $40m as cash after repayments and interest but have to then factor in h2 metals prices for income and sales which gets complex. But there is enough headline data to see that divi is very safe and more likely to increase or even a special unless they have an acquisition in mind.

With recent director buys and their LTIP based on peer TSR comparison for 75% of the target and a 10 year date I think we are in pretty good hands. Biggest risk as usual is macro.

China seem to be using covid lockdowns in conjunction with Putin switching off gas to screw our economies as they couldn’t care less about their own people. Which obviously plays into metals prices.

As soon as anything gives though this should literally rocket given it’s balance sheet and location.

I thought best to start buying now in tranches and a 9% yield, well covered, at even lower prices is pretty good compensation!

Usual caveats

Trek

Apologies all for OT….

Re DEC hedging..

This may help. It’s not a tangible loss…

“ As the gain or losses on the speculative transactions are to be recorded immediately, it may result in an initial loss at the balance sheet date and subsequent gain at the end of the contract period or vice versa, which creates complexity in the accounts.”

Definitely succeeded in achieving ‘complexity’though!

https://www.educba.com/accounting-for-derivatives/

Usual caveats

Trek

The question….

“ Gold’s Time to Shine in 2022?
The global economy has been shaking with turbulence in 2022, with consumers facing high inflation and investors seeing dismal stock market returns.

While these market conditions typically point towards rising demand for gold, that hasn’t been the case so far this year, with prices down 2% year-to-date. This is partly because of rising interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding gold as investors forgo the interest income they could earn from saving accounts or bonds.

But in fact, history shows that gold often outperforms U.S. stocks and the dollar following interest rate hikes, after underperforming in the lead-up to rate hikes. Additionally, high inflation is eroding the purchasing power of each dollar, incentivizing investment in a tangible asset like gold and other hard assets.

With geopolitical uncertainty at a high and the U.S. consumer sentiment at decade-lows, will gold prove its value as a safe-haven asset in 2022?”

Well we can only look at what happened before and surmise it will likely happen again….

Some good charts…

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/gold-during-recessions/

I think gold will head back towards 2k by Christmas…

GCAT could be very well placed as a produced and we have another chance at topping up in the 6’s! Now that COULD be an absolute bargain we’ll see.

I for one am happier buying here than many other places atm. That sentiment could be the same for other investors that may just be turning to gold producers. The drop in POG gives one the opportunity average in.

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s undeniable that they are making money from increased energy costs….

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/31/gazprom-to-pay-kremlin-86bn-after-record-profits?utm_term=6310595b74e44649522fe2aba0d1578d&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

But the thing with energy is it needs maintaining and they cant get spares! Like wise their manufacturing must be non existent now. People will be out of work but the Kremlin couldn’t care less. They just chuck people out of windows!

I maintain China will keep the lockdowns and Russia will switch of the gas as that’s the way to get back at the West. We’ll do the rest!

Seriously thinking of going to all cash as loosing 20% to inflation is akin to one bad day on this market!

I am just very lucky to be many 100’s% up albeit from a ‘small’ starting pot but think the trade now is out and back in later!

Usual caveats

Trek

Not to my knowledge but I think it’s pretty clear from the July acquisition RNS that DEC are retiring more wells than was the case by previous owners and are compliant to legislation, well far exceeding it.

“ Diversified's plugging programme now includes 15 well plugging rigs (+70% vs 1Q22) and an expanded portfolio of services that enhance the Company's ability to retire wells and perform related site preparation and reclamation activities. The Acquisition adds 3 derrick rigs that supplement the servicing and retiring of both deep vertical and unconventional wells, and also includes a number of service rigs and auxiliary equipment. Diversified's expanded suite of offerings now includes cementing, wireline, trucking and construction services, which reduce the need to incur related contractor expenses and provide incremental revenue streams.

The Acquisition significantly enhances the visibility by which Diversified will meet its stated commitment to retire at least 200 wells per year across the Company's Appalachian footprint, well in excess of state minimum plugging requirements and with locally based internal equipment and crews.”

Usual caveats

Trek

Wish I waited 1 more day!

Trek

Good move imo, I would have taken some off today but just got in as it went to 114!

Sitting for now as happy to hold these longer term and only grab opportunities as they come along.

Usual caveats

Trek

All-women protest rocks Seplat Petroleum Development Company, Sapele, over alleged illegalities….

https://persecondnews.com/2022/09/01/all-women-protest-rocks-seplat-petroleum-development-company-sapele-over-alleged-illegalities/

Trek

Lukoil exec fell from window! Well that’s another ‘jobsworth exec’ mysteriously dead!

“ MOSCOW, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Ravil Maganov, the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil (LKOH.MM), died on Thursday after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, two sources familiar with the situation said, becoming the latest in a series of businessmen to meet with sudden unexplained deaths.

The sources confirmed reports by several Russian media that the 67-year-old had plunged to his death, but the circumstances surrounding his fall were unclear.

Two people who knew Maganov well told Reuters they believed it was highly unlikely he had committed suicide.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chairman-russian-oil-producer-lukoil-dies-after-falling-hospital-window-source-2022-09-01/

Usual caveats

Trek

Xd today. SP has held up exceptionality well. It’s not the divi as other shares have dropped with the market the last two weeks and then again on XD day.

It’s not unusual for the SP to drop more than the divi esp on a market down day.

CR888,

Look at the last company ppt…

https://corporate.paypoint.com/investor-centre/results

Also we have a strategic investor, another fintech, as per holdings RNS’s that has gone well over 20%

TA wise we have established a much higher support following the break above 600. It’s now looking like 620 and it should head back to 7’s if next results are as guided.

Usual caveats

Trek

Often overlooked reason to hold UK listed US stocks - $ divi!

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/991464/pound-to-fall-to-record-low-and-ftse-100-faces-further-big-decline-economist-991464.html

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi nomlungu,

Thanks for the heads up it’s appreciated. Likewise I tend to hold some and trade some with most of my holdings. I am happy to be in below the placing here but for now would add the next lot with a 10 if it comes and slice at 15. Depends on news and vols of course.

Atb

Trek

Zero Hedge….China selling EU Russian gas…Lol! Open mind! Or just madness!

“….. Make no mistake: all of this "excess" LNG was soured in part or in whole in Russia, but since it has been "tolled" in China, it is no longer Russian. It is instead - drumroll - Chinese LNG.

The good news is that the 53 million tonnes that the bloc purchased surpasses imports by China and Japan and has brought Europe’s gas-storage occupancy rate up to 77%.If this continues, Europe is likely to reach its stated goal of filling 80% of its gas storage facilities by November (at which point it will start draining the reserves at a breakneck pace to keep warm during the winter). But while China’s economic slump has brought much-needed relief to Europe, it comes with a major footnote. As soon as economic activity bounces back in China, the situation will quickly reverse, and Beijing will no longer re-export Russia LNG to keep Europe warm.

Hilariously, it also means that instead of being dependent on Russia for gas, Europe is now becoming dependent on Beijing instead for its energy - which is still Russian gas, only this time imported from China - which makes a mockery of US geopolitical ambitions to defend a liberal international order with its own energy exports.

Worse, while Europe could buy Russian LNG for price X, it instead has to pay 2X, 3X or more, just to virtue signal to the world that it won't fund Putin's regime, when in reality is is paying extra to both Xi and to Putin, who is collecting a premium price thanks to the overall market scarcity……”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-aggressively-reselling-russian-gas-europe

Link credit, bankrupty.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Mattybouy,

Yes of course it likely is. But who’d have thought oil futures would go negative with covid. I always try to keep an open mind. Rational but open.

I note Germany have filled the tanks. Russia has pulled the gas plug on France and gas futures dropped 28% in one day. Still at least the Eurocrats are going to fix the gas prices so that’s likely to have the opposite effect. They probably forget Europe can only cope with so much LNG due to capacity!

Oh and Rishi has decimated the UK 10year treasuries with one throw away comment about the R word!

Thankfully my local should be able to cope with a 200% increase in its energy bill as it’s a well used local pub but many other establishments will fail and there will be knock on’s.

Then there’s the drought in China that must end soon. So that will help! Over 50% of motorists have EV’s and they can’t charge them because the hydro isn’t running. It chaos over there!

It all feeds into the energy price mix…

Not bad for 24hrs. You gotta keep an open mind in this game.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/wholesale-gas-prices-tumble-as-europe-prepares-to-intervene-in-energy-markets?utm_term=630f154d853e9cc430d697bdf67a526d&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/08/26/1058727/chinas-heat-wave-electric-vehicle/

Usual caveats

Trek

I did notice that. You know what they say about ‘fools seldom differ’. Lol! I think we are both chasing a bit of income + risk.

I was in here at 200p and exited around 260p - just looked on ii. It’s been on my watchlist since. I was hoping for sub 220 to get back in. It may go there but I bought now as I had some profits burning a hole!

Will add more later. I usually buy in tranches and try and grab market dips. This and APF (sold) has held up well.

Usual caveats

Trek

My average now is 104, on paper at least! Looking to add back in later in if 70’s come again and then take them out if it goes back up. Just trying to work average down! Will still keep core for when good times return!

Wouldn’t be surprised to see directors buy at these levels after close period.

Usual caveats

Trek

Back in here now, 2k + 1k shares. Had to split trade.

Debt free RNS due soon imo if deemed material but could get via reach. Last payments should clear tomorrow.

Little bounce today on China easing today. Copper may have bottomed but whatever they sell less ops costs now is profit.

With rates rising this is a good place to be + if Ukraine ever ends and let’s hope it does! The Dniper river could be a natural de facto border that may evolve by default due to geography rather than negotiation in which case Ukraine may start rebuilding sooner. All guess work but if it does this imo is geographically very well placed.

I had a good run here last time. Can’t remember what I sold for, it’s irrelevant really as starting again with new money and will likely add more over time.

Usual caveats

Trek

The cure for high energy prices is high energy prices! That brings about rate hikes, recessions or more exploration shale etc. The former is what’s spooked the market. There are other factors as well but the biggest concern is demand destruction!

“ Best FTSE 250 shares

1) Diversified Energy (LON: DEC)
Up 28% year-to-date to 141p, Diversified Energy could be an excellent FTSE 250 stock pick for September.

The US-based company specialises in buying up old oil and gas wells in the Appalachian Basin, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas. Diversified Energy then applies its ‘smarter asset management’ program that allows it to optimise production and reduce operating costs.

Because the wells it acquires are almost always non-core, neglected, or even an outright liability for the seller, it can acquire these older wells at excellent prices relative to future profitability. Accordingly, it’s spent just $2.5 billion on roughly 70,000 oil and gas wells.

It’s unlikely to be a target of any windfall taxes, unlike oil majors BP and Shell. And it offers a significant and sustainable 9.7% dividend yield, delivered on an expansive hedging strategy, while still expanding its portfolio.

Key risk: Diversified Energy could be hit hard by future demand destruction when recession hits, while overvaluation is possible as investors flood to energy assets.”

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/best-ftse-250-shares-to-buy-in-september-2022-220829

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Trek

nomlunga,

Thanks for the tip, I read through this one last night and watched the meetme. I like how they aim to fund from ops and was impressed with the geo coverage and ARR’s.

Also watched the Agrii vids. Was impressed by the level of science, stats and evidence based research. I have a bit of biotech knowledge so this resonated with me.

Most importantly though is this one looks ‘macro agnostic’ if there is such a thing as even if farms look like failing govts can’t really allow that - well UK aside! It helps to have American sales!

Anyways may be back for more later.

Usual caveats

Trek