Member Info for TrekMadone

Tick for all that Temple!

Trek

Well you don’t go to court like that unless you are 100%!

I think because the country and in particular oil has had a legacy of corruption the behaviours of the press are such that you can usually accuse without substance as it’s pretty likely true so there is no redress. You have a story!

But what happens if you call someone innocent a crook!

I think there are two editors now shting themselves and probably trying their best to end this without going to the courts!

Hopefully others are watching and it helps change the culture for the better.

A free press is essential to democratic process but shouldn’t be part of ‘the problem’.

There will be shockwaves!

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Trek

“ .indeed I think our Trek might have been taking similar action.....sorry Trek if I am wrong on this......but in any event it is not limited to PXC..”

Hi yes I have sold 100k here in 25k’s. I averaged down thinking sub 30p was the bottom but didn’t get the bounce so sold them again as well. I only hold 25k now but fully intend to increase substantially depending on news.

It’s something I do with most of my stocks. I am an active investor that slices on the way up and recycles in and also on the way down as I see fit.

A couple of successes this last couple weeks are PHNX, ONC and GCAT where I have traded my average down and taken out gains as the shares have bounced.

My investments luckily are up considerably over the years by being more active. This is at odds with those that just buy and hold and quote Warren Buffet and forget he wouldn’t touch any of my investments with a barge pole!

One of my best ever investments was DDDD returning over 400%. Had I held and hugged the holdings would likely be lost as the stock is suspended. Or ARB selling the last at 150p imagine still holding!

As data changes my views change and I often act on that.

I am still very bullish on PXC long term but I don’t often just let an investment sit an watch the SP drip

The only company where I have been relatively inactive from a trading perspective is TXP as the story and financials are in tact but had I foreseen the protracted delays I would have traded out and back in. I missed a chance there! However, by knowing the stock well I topped up confidently at 56.75p recently!

I probably do around 20 trades a week. Sometimes much more sometimes less. I don’t post on all the blue chip ones other than PHNX as it’s pretty unique but even there I have been all out and back in many times.

Not sure if that is of any use at all. Part of ‘the problem’ really depending on your views I guess.

Good luck all,

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Trek

I really liked this podcast. Fair play to the young lady presenting this….

‘Am I living in some simulation’

‘The walls start talking’ referencing to graffiti…

There is nothing earth shattering here. Just some courageous kid sharing the ordinary which paints a changing picture over time…

Some faith restored in social media! Well done Vladivostok!

https://youtu.be/96TsPKhAc0M

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Trek

Thanks itsyou,

That rings a bell….!

So 100k then! Nice!

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Trek

“ Chemicals giant BASF warned that a gas shortage could wreak havoc on the industry. Aluminum and zinc smelters are closing, and so are fertilizer plants, all because of record gas and electricity prices.”

Worth reading the whole article to appreciate the potential impact of drought and energy prices on Europe…

Link from Mick-B

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Drought-Is-Driving-European-Energy-Markets-Toward-Disaster.html

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Trek

“ The European Union has been quick in switching from Russian gas to U.S. LNG amid the Ukraine crisis, but speed has not been enough: U.S. LNG export capacity is not limitless, and producers also have other clients, in Asia. As the winter season approaches, Asian buyers have become more willing to pay hefty premiums for any LNG, which has intensified competition for a limited number of LNG tankers.”

Worth reading the whole article to appreciate the potential impact of drought and energy prices on Europe…

Link from Mick-B

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Drought-Is-Driving-European-Energy-Markets-Toward-Disaster.html

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Trek

Here’s an armchair view…

When USD (DXY) goes up POG golds declines but note the 2008 recession, gold did as it should and went up, midway declined then went higher.

Then covid, POG declined, reversed then went higher.

2022 recession POG declining…..is the next step like previous recessions that is a reversal and go higher…. Mmmm

Pick a narrative but don’t assume just because the 10 year treasuries have gone through 3pc that that is the end of gold!

https://www.macrotrends.net/1335/dollar-vs-gold-comparison-last-ten-years

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Trek

Or it’s topped out, or worse a 1984 and it’s just started! If it goes through 120 that’ll hurt!

Gold normally goes down as USD goes up. There are two exceptions 2008 recession and 2020 covid. If we are indeed heading for a recession then I am backing gold decline to reverse and track USD back up.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1335/dollar-vs-gold-comparison-last-ten-years

I guess it’s pick a narrative time!

As for metals this month huge US $1.2tn infrastructure spending kicks off as they spend their way to growth.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/a-new-era-of-us-infrastructure-grants

I know it’s early days but all this discontent from Russian troops is going back home as the next lot of ‘cannon fodder arrives and they haven’t been getting the money if the blurbs are to be believed.

https://youtu.be/t2X1j9fK_MY

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dnipro river emerges as a de facto border. With areas East becoming a no war zone. Just a guess!

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Trek

“ The mining technical team is expanding to cater for increased mine planning, resources optimisation and reserve calculations.”

Nice, sounds v positive! Plus = financial confidence to recruit!

In my ignorance I thought total was for 50k but from slide 3…

“ The mining technical team is expanding to cater for increased mine planning, resources optimisation and reserve calculations.”

+

“ The mining technical team is expanding to cater for increased mine planning, resources optimisation and reserve calculations.”

=

74k

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Trek

1 min in….. “the USA military budget is so freaking big it’s as much as the next 9 countries combined!”

Actually an interesting 10min vid from outside looking in at US military might. I really like the presenter so biased!

https://youtu.be/asntNnmjyDI

Why do the US get their arses kicked then?

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Trek

O/T

Totally agree lucky, the drought adds to the narrative…

Here’s an unexpected addition to drought!

https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/08/26/1058727/chinas-heat-wave-electric-vehicle/

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Trek

I’ll leave it there, wink emoji!

Quinton Summerville in Donbass, bbc, 3 hrs ago. Infantry odds from 1 to 7 to 1 to 3 on frontline now!

https://youtu.be/Dg_L-q3caA8

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Trek

Meanwhile has the pandemic set free other birds….

Only fans? Never heard of them until now…..

“ Leonid Radvinsky, the site’s Ukrainian-American 40-year-old owner, is the sole shareholder in a business that has seen its profits boom, as users spent $4.8bn on the site last year.

The financial results mean OnlyFans is one of the most financially successful British tech start-ups in recent years, succeeding where other more mainstream companies have failed. The company’s latest accounts show pre-tax profits rose by 615% to $432m in the 12 months to September 2021.

The site acts as a marketplace for adult performers, who upload their own material and keep 80% of the revenue. The remaining 20% goes to OnlyFans and covers the cost of running the business, handling credit card processing, and providing a very healthy income for Radvinsky. He has been paying himself as much as $45m a month in dividend payments.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/01/onlyfans-profits-boom-as-users-spent-48bn-on-platform-last-year?utm_term=6311ae9ee5635c7d6fdb2b1a6f361f7f&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

Gosh a podcast sex paradigm and a ROI to rival spaceX and obviously Twitter! Wink wink!

Which ‘X’rater will list first…. Coming soon! Oh dear!

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Trek

Simplistically DEC are demonstrating and intent to clean up those defunct wells. I posted RNS below.

They employ the community and work within the community. The objective is efficient safe hydrocarbon production that meets ESG.

DEC have demonstrated by taking on plugging teams, doing aerials, setting up monitoring and hugely exceeding legislative requirements on well shut downs that they are a progressive organisation.

They also pay due taxes.

Any reasonable outsider looking in would see DEC as part of the solution not the problem. They are extending well life, reducing leaks or shutting down wells at a higher productively rate than ever before aided by economies of scale. They have simple geographical leak monitoring in place and improvement targets. It’s actually a scorecard objective!

Bankrupting DEC with fines even if possible, which is absolutely unlikely would shift all the liabilities to the state who wouldn’t have the know how or skills at least short term to deal with this. You would just end up with a state owned DEC! Progress would be slower, efficiency would decline, there would always be another pull on resources. It’s one of the reasons DEC have picked up these ‘non core’ assets from majors.

Any changes would imo be regulatory rather than punitive. It would probably be industry incentives to speed up decommissioning and edicts to havetangible ringfenced budgets and churn which would likely ironically benefit DEC. We have the best prod, infrastructure, plugging delivery and budgets in place.

We would likely therefore get a better price to take over assets from those that were non-compliant as they would be further incentivised to divest.

Regulatory changes would like be pitched to be an achievable target for us else the govt would bankrupt lesser operatives and be left with another problem and loss of revenues so a double hit!

Sanguine and pleased at DEC’s ESG progress!

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Trek

If Russia doesn’t supply HC’s to complaint price cap countries then they have to go elsewhere? So Russia becomes the price cap police! Lol!

I expect the Russia-China-EU back door will remain! It’s x3 price!

The biggy imo is insurance on shipping. That’s why that ‘can’ has been kicked again! Oh until after winter!

Meanwhile Russia switches off the gas and China fabricates its covid lockdowns so they can continue to export inflationary woes and civil unrest to the West.

It’s easier for an autocracy to inflict hardship where people are controlled!

It’s how you beat a democracy - get freedom to turn on itself!

Chuck in the odd cyber attacks, promote your stance on TikTok! (Like in Kenya). Call in debts on a few strategic investments like the belt and road initiative! And more…it’s all there…

But the point is….

Export financial instability and we, The West and democracy’s will do the rest! That way you can take lives, change govts and even regimes without firing a bullet!

It’s all in plan sight as is the stupidity of one elected govt here after another. We have secure energy, abundant water, self sufficient fisheries, land capable of producing food of livestock and vegetables. We have financial institutions second to none a capable hi tech workforce! I could go on!….

Yet each govt after the other of whatever colour has managed to mess it up in the name of hubris! Cheap, offshoring, short term electioneering, selfish need for power etc

It wouldn’t be fair for me to criticise without offering alternatives. A sovereign wealth fund with strategic Co board positions financed instead of trillions of QE!. That way the dividends go to the exchequer year after year rather than one of anticompetitive windfalls and the govt is only arms length!

A tax system that frees low earners and incentivises work so you keep everything you earn up to £16k and a graduation thereafter up to 50% for super rich. (It’s been costed on the conservative women website, I read the article afterwards which was great!)

Tax at point of sale. Offshoring sovereign penalties, you can’t have both! But no one wants to seriously close the loops as MP’s benefit from status quo!

How about tax relief on monies spent on private healthcare to reduce NHS queues! Incentive or destruction? Or common sense! You can add in NHS pt incentives!

A points system for immigration. We need to change our demographics. We go population negative in 2050! There won’t be enough folk working even with prod gains!…

I’d better stop there!

Imagine a party with a realistic manifesto! Lol!

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Trek

Gotta assume 8p forward divi so 4.2%, anything more bonus.

This needs lots of energy and likewise so do their customers.

It’s a brilliant company caught in the crosshairs of economic anarchy atm.

Directors have bought after close period. The results imo are v good but forward looking is a huge unknown hence the SP.

From a TA perspective a bounce back to 200 looks very likely but for more….really need a buyout!

Signs are there but any prospective buyer may also be inclined to wait for now.

I think the trade now is a buy as you are getting below the directors recent buys and then sell at least some from 208 up would be my target. Can always leave some in.

Buying in the hope of a t/o can just tie funds up but it doesn’t hurt to have a small position earning even 4% just in case. You can always then come back and add later; hopefully averaging up!

I did brill here before with my trades and bagged the divi’s so it’s on my radar. I am tempted by the sp nadir but tbh I’d smash and grab! Also have better plays atm so may come back again later.

Good luck with your investments

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Trek

Civil unrests predicted……well if they read Tecan they’d be up on THE news!

No surprises here!…

“ Counties across Europe face some of the biggest risks of unrest, fuelled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/sep/02/rising-costs-threaten-global-unrest-say-risk-analysts?utm_term=6311ae9ee5635c7d6fdb2b1a6f361f7f&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

And Russia switching off gas before they loose any leverage and of course China milking covid lockdowns and screwing the developing world with their draconian belt and road terms in order to export inflation and cause unrest!

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Trek

It was expensive for TRX but I think we will get a better reception when you compare the two charts there’s had already risen ours in nadir…

“ (MT Newswires) -- TRX Gold Corp. (TNX.TO) said Thursday that its subsidiary Buckreef Gold Corp. entered a pre-paid gold purchase agreement worth US$5 million with OCIM Metals & Mining SA.

TRX, which at last look fell 6.3% on the TSX and lost 4.6% on the NYSE American in early Thursday trading, said it will use the proceeds to boost productivity, including buying mining equipment to replace higher-cost rental equipment.

The funds will also provide the company with flexibility to expedite exploration and sulfide development programs.

The total contract price includes a US$1.5 million upfront payment while the rest will be settled over 18 months.

"As operations continue to ramp-up at Buckreef Gold, non-dilutive alternative sources of financing continue to emerge for the enterprise," TRX CEO Stephen Mullowney said.

"This financing enables the company to opportunistically move up high return quick payback purchases, enabling the company to further reduce operating costs."

Price: 0.60, Change: -0.04, Percent Change: -6.25”

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TRX-GOLDNPV-57473407/news/TRX-Gold-Loses-6-in-Canada-Trading-as-Signs-US-5-Million-Prepaid-Gold-Purchase-Agreement-with-OCIM-41673576/

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Trek

Russian bank losses from DT news

“ RUSSIAN BANKS LOSE $25BN
Russian banks lost a combined 1.5 trillion troubles ($25bn) in the first half of the year as western sanctions shut the country out of large parts of the global financial system.

Dmitry Tulin, first deputy chairman of Russia’s central bank, said around two-third of the losses came from foreign currency operations as lenders were blocked from trading in dollars, euros and other currencies.

He told newspaper RBC that the losses were concentrated among Russia’s “systemically important” banks, which are the largest and have higher capital adequacy requirements.

But Tulin insisted the central bank didn’t expect a repeat of the 2014-17 banking crisis, when the regulator had to bail out several lenders and stripped banking licences from hundreds of poorly capitalised banks.

It’s the first time Russia has disclosed figures for its banking sector since the invasion of Ukraine.”

Significantly understated imo!

Another mystery is why do we allow HSBC to get away with supporting Russia through non denial. Can’t believe folk still bank there!

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Trek