Member Info for TrekMadone

Onc down significantly now on low vols. see my post there if you follow.

Opportunity for TA guys now to catch the bottom! I am locked in but fortunately took profits first time around but stil< rate as long term buy and will likely add later.

Usual caveats

Trek

Ops wise and signing contracts with tier 1 pharma this is awesome!

9.9m loss even after the extended period has spooked the market. It’s obvious that the market is expecting some sort of funding to plug that gap. I have to look back through and see if the run rate can sustain it.

I think we may see director buys after close period and wouldn’t be surprised if later on we get picked up. Either that or it’s going to be a loan or equity.

Just seems such an overreaction. An award winning great British biotech with deals across top 15 Pharma’s and nhs!

I will be picking some more up once it settles as fortunately having done well elsewhere I can average down and wait it out.

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Trek

Mgc up mhc is aswell but my iPad likes to know best! Lol

Trek

And 88E & AET….

My O&G index is up

THR, avoid, in mining

Vrci & mhc up in biotech sng still getting slapped!

Onc results flat… watch for a director buy there later, imo.

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Trek

Hi Troajan,

Drill results, MRE upgrade, sale. Already telegraphed buyer(s) interested need to get gold up, also battery metals. Tier 1 geo.

Directors want to sell!

Should have a run up to Christmas even in anticipation of news!

Don’t see much downside at these levels else it would have gone to 15p. It hasn’t. Many holders in much higher. I will derisk on way back up. Again! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Been through a few options and added at LND and a little more PXC.

LND looking like an overdue breakout into 20’s soon. I have been saying that for a while now but one day rodders!

News soon, SP due a bounce on chart and loads of metals for sale. Directors in much higher!

Usual caveats

Trek

And JIM up 26%….I just bagged 20% selling the shares I bought Friday as per my post!

May have another go if the pullback but plenty of other opportunities atm!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi barchid,

Thanks…Yep happy days 2nd on countback with 39pts!

Just logged in and sold my JIM’s for 20% profit!

I thought there would be more clarity today but not yet. Couldn’t t resist banking the winnings as can always have another go later if it drifts back. If not I don’t mind paying more for surety if divi is ok.

From 120 I think 110 is as likely as 130 so decided to cash out.

Good luck whatever you decide. I am amazed that there are so few posters here especially after that news!

Usual caveats

Trek

Natasha has left Russia for Georgia!

Seems a nice kid hope she does well!

https://youtu.be/VfDV9E79y_U

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Trek

24 income fund…. not just Questor but also ii (I emailed them) and other tipsters fail to mention impact of charges when the rec funds, trusts etc. it’s so annoying!

Whilst I appreciate it’s not possible for everyone but you can often look at their top holdings and piggy back their ideas.

Usual caveats

Trek

I think I am better off adding here than at Zephr or a few others I have been tracking. The high impact stuff cuts both ways. I like most here have been on both sides of drill results and have been fortunate to get away with a lot!

I liked Zephyr as the expo was being financed from production and there is a huge potential upside. But at the end of the day the well is unconventional. If I did buy I would sell most ahead of the drill result. Same as I did at HE1 netting great returns on what was also an ‘unconventional drill’. Look what happened there! CLON & MATD played the same.

DEC and SEPL aside where I trade my average to max the divi income I am just adding to TXP and CHAR now in the E&P space. I have reduced at SAVE where I was near 300% up to build up SEPL as I want income and it looks to be a long way off at SAVE and now and the story there seems to be snagging.

Both CHAR and TXP have a financed route to ‘market’ and time is the main issue. Lots of the heavy lifting has been done and the ops are reasonably derisked but imo not in the SP’s yet.

I would rather drip feed those now. My last top up here was 56.75p and now the next will be sub 90p! I mean under a quid is a huge bargain imo!

Any issue with the safety check should be able to be engineered and the company has plenty of cash.

Cascadura will eventually happen….I am not going through the story as we know it but the point is TXP is way ahead of many other companies in this sector and it’s not yet reflected in the SP as ‘the last yards’ are taking longer.

However, those last yards are not exactly proving an unconventional field, sourcing a drill for an unknown geographical target, exploring complex financial arrangements etc. you get the gist.

This will rerate significantly soon imo.

Usual caveats

Trek

“ Phoenix Copper

Other standouts this week included Phoenix Copper (PXC) which continues to improve after the update on September 8. It would appear to be in drilling heaven at the moment, with the latest at the North Pit/Red Star area due to have commenced during the week.”

Yes what’s interesting is the pullback. It reached an intra day of around 38p from memory and has settled down to 34p now. I was convinced it would come back to 30p or at least 31p but it hasn’t. Even in a falling market, one where commos have been hammered!

Usual caveats

Trek

CAML….

I posted a note on these a while back. Got a buy rec from MIDAS today…..

‘ Midas verdict: Midas recommended Central Asia Metals when production first started in Kazakhstan, back in 2012. The shares were 89p then and have since risen to £2.28, paying consistently attractive dividends along the way.

Like many mining stocks, Central Asia has fallen in recent months as metal prices have slipped, but the current price represents a buying opportunity. The company is well run, highly efficient and has a track record of rewarding shareholders: an attractive, long-term stock for new and existing investors. ’

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-11222045/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-UPDATE-Central-Asia-Metals-mining-money.html

Link from flexmw

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Trek

Firefight on streets of Kherson?

Looks v credible but wether it’s Kherson I don’t know but for sure no one seems to know who’s fighting who!!! Ukrainian special forces or Russian factions fighting each other. Either way it’s loud!

https://youtu.be/IHiMIICKrlU

Usual caveats

Trek

I think this is a real world example of ‘demand destruction’ it’s Eastman’s trading update. They are a NYSE chemicals company and use a lot of gas….

“ NEW YORK (ICIS)–US-based Eastman Chemical slashed its Q3 earnings guidance and warned that Q4 will likely start from a lower base as demand weakens, elevated natural gas costs bite and the higher US dollar and logistics tangles create headwinds.

The company took down its Q3 earnings per share (EPS) forecast from previous guidance of solid growth from the $2.46 earned in Q3 2021, to around $2.00, citing in particular demand slowing down more than expected in consumer durables and building and construction, as well as in Europe and Asia through August and September.

The revised Q3 2022 EPS guidance of $2.00 would be a big step down from $2.83 in Q2 as well as down from $2.46 in Q3 2021.

Shares of Eastman plunged almost 10% in late afternoon trading on 13 September.

“Building and construction and consumer durables have been the focus spots for us, and those have continued to weaken. That’s being compounded by the fact that the European economy as well as the Asian economy being driven by the continued China lockdowns, have had an additional impact,” said Willie McLain, chief financial officer of Eastman, at a Credit Suisse conference.

“Also, you’re seeing a level of destocking… so there’s various compounding effects,” he added.”

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2022/09/13/10805179/eastman-slashes-q3-earnings-guidance-slammed-by-demand-weakness-energy-fx-and-logistics-cfo/

It kind of underlines the value of DEC because we don’t just have the US market for gas. It’s pretty much a world market so whilst there may be a reduction in demand at home, US. We have an option to fill some of the void created by Russia. Also lockdowns will end at some point, albeit I think China are using then deliberately to destabilise the West. But following the recent China - Russian summit it seems Xi is a bit psd of with Putin’s ‘little operation ‘ now!

And of course DEC have downside gas price protection from hedging. So we still have a market for volume and even with the recent HH price drops we still have price protection.

Theoretically the SP should carry on within a trading range. So buy and hold for the divi. Suits me fine!

Usual caveats

Trek

Don’t give up, just have an amount of shares you don’t need to look at every day and worry. You can then always, well hopefully, add more on the right news.

I don’t think anyone here would be surprised to see 50p, the company taken private, a sale of products or even insolvency!

All options are viable but I think a product sale at some point and a significantly higher SP from 2.5p.

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Trek

SD,

“ Your talking rubbish there wage inflation. Wages are rising at lower rate than CPI. If anything that is reducing overall inflationary pressure.”

Steady there,

See the quotation marks and the url…they are Jim Mellons words not mine!

Yes wages are lower than CPI but even though they are higher than previous run rates they are not enough to make peeps want to spend.

He makes the point that the labour market tightness, more vacancies than applicants, has ended or is ending. That was previously propping up inflation albeit still low.

But as the pay gap is well below inflation that reflects on reduced demand.

The interesting part is interest rates normally rose to curb ‘animal instincts’, Keynes’ term for an overheating economy. This time it’s different. Inflation is from supply side constraints..

You can work it out from there!

Usual caveats

Trek

———-
“ Third, labour market tightness has also peaked and that will alleviate wage led inflation in coming months . The Great Resignation will soon become the Great Scramble for jobs. Mark my words!”

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/mellon-on-the-markets-autumn-outlook/?mc_cid=47d28b606b&mc_eid=418bda054f

Disaster at JIM today! I have posted views over there.

I happened to be selling anyways but bought back in today at an average of 98p.

Fingers crossed for Tuesday!

Usual caveats

Trek

Note a change in narrative from Putin….

‘ Russian President Vladimir Putin has told India’s Narendra Modi that he understood New Delhi’s concerns about the conflict in Ukraine and wanted it to end “as soon as possible”, according to a readout of a bilateral meeting published by the Kremlin.

The Indian prime minister told Putin on Friday on the sidelines of a regional security bloc summit in Uzbekistan: “I know that today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this.” He said democracy, diplomacy and dialogue kept the world together.

But Putin said Kyiv had rejected negotiations and was set on achieving its own objectives “on the battlefield”.

“I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, your concerns that you constantly express,” he told Modi on the sidelines of a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

“We will do everything to stop this as soon as possible. Only, unfortunately, the opposing side, the leadership of Ukraine, announced its rejection of the negotiation process and stated that it wants to achieve its goals by military means.”

New Delhi and Moscow have longstanding ties dating back to the Cold War, and Russia remains by far India’s biggest arms supplier.…….”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/16/putin-tells-modi-he-wants-ukraine-war-to-end-as-soon-as-possible

Trek

Sorry 28m shares £36m!

Usual caveats

Trek