Member Info for TrekMadone

They got it away in this market! Pretty impressive!

Only 6% plus base and margin reduces once new pipeline soaked in!

Can’t believe market ambivalence

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Trek

This is by a bot so treat accordingly but it has some data.,.

“ Institutional investors own over 50% of the company, so together than can probably strongly influence board decisions. Diversified Energy is not owned by hedge funds. Our data shows that M&G Investment Management Limited is the largest shareholder with 7.7% of shares outstanding. With 6.7% and 5.8% of the shares outstanding respectively, abrdn plc and J O Hambro Capital Management Limited are the second and third largest shareholders. Additionally, the company's CEO Robert Hutson directly holds 2.5% of the total shares outstanding.

After doing some more digging, we found that the top 14 have the combined ownership of 50% in the company, suggesting that no single shareholder has significant control over the company.”

https://www.yahoo.com/video/diversified-energy-company-plc-lon-051455103.html

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Trek

Link by poker chips on Lgen…

Explains well what we are not sure of!

https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2022/09/collateral-calls/

Atm we can only make the best decisions with the data. I do expect that there will be an en mass update soon. That will show who bailed and who survived! No update means not significant according to regulatory guidance.

Interesting it’s thought LGEN were one that was caught but could finance. I can’t find links yet only chatter.

Anyways well soon find out!

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Trek

Hi Troajan,

Where did you see the chunky buys on GCAT. Nothing in on trades page here. I added 500k today and buys are showing as sell on the LSE ALGO atm as tight spread.

On Synt I did well on that one. Out now!

Meanwhile on the DT news channel the circus continues…..just now…

“ The pound recovered all of its losses since Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-Budget this morning as Britain's official forecaster admitted it was mistaken about the country entering a recession in the second quarter.

Sterling rose to $1.116 against the dollar, recovering from a low point of just under $1.04 which it touched at the peak of the market’s gloom on Monday morning.

It came as the Office for National Statistics revealed the economy grew by 0.2pc in the second quarter, rather than the previous estimate of a 0.1pc fall in GDP.

A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.

It is now thought likely that a contraction began in the third quarter of 2022 instead.”

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Trek

Hi,

They have £4.7bn it’s my understanding that this is cash which makes up the 186%. How liquid that is I don’t know. If they needed liquidity to cover hedges then we are assuming they hadn’t leverage a drop in bond prices. I think that is unlikely given their MO to protect DB payments.

On the cash they have currency as they paid £248m cash for sun life.

I agree though there are many unknowns. I have emailed IR for clarity. I expect others have as well and we’ll all get a pre drafted nothing message. On our side is if there is a material change to outlook they HAVE to notify the market else they fall foul of the MAR. Again though another regulator that’s a waste of time…!

Meanwhile the circus continues…. From DT just now…

“ The pound recovered all of its losses since Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-Budget this morning as Britain's official forecaster admitted it was mistaken about the country entering a recession in the second quarter.

Sterling rose to $1.116 against the dollar, recovering from a low point of just under $1.04 which it touched at the peak of the market’s gloom on Monday morning.

It came as the Office for National Statistics revealed the economy grew by 0.2pc in the second quarter, rather than the previous estimate of a 0.1pc fall in GDP.

A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.

It is now thought likely that a contraction began in the third quarter of 2022 instead.”

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Trek

I think hope as don’t know for sure that the money they have will get them through p1. That’s what the sponsorship is for. The other revs from income is paying the lecky.

I wish he said ‘fully fuelled’ but I think we can coast and if there is nothing for p2 assuming p1 success then obviously funding will be needed. I picked up a few today but again an amount I can write off or buy a really decent holiday if the ticket comes in.

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Trek

Well done you I got 5k at 109. Couldn’t get in earlier but hope to flip some trades when market bounces into here.

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Trek

The 66’s are likely buys. I added 500k. Amazing liquidity atm. 66 v 651 quoted by ii.

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Trek

Any read across to here must be a positive given their increase in revs.

Oh and their sp has stayed put which following any set of numbers in this market is a massive achievement!

Set an order for my last, final last buy here! Lol!

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Trek

Yep early market reaction is pretty flat. Looks like the drop was already in from 30p.

I can buy back through the day now. Thankfully I only pay £3.99 a trade and buy side liquidity here is good.

Let’s see how it goes.

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Trek

I think it’s a good set of numbers and fantastic foundations!

I sold the last of mine yesterday. Why because all the results I have seen coming to market this last few weeks have resulted in a disproportionate sp fall. No matter how good they are they are not seen to be good enough. So I sold with a view that I can always buy back in and if that means paying more so be it.

I do of course hope there is the right market reaction to these excellent achievements by the team.

Good luck with your investments

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Trek

‘Revenue from annual subscription renewals from our existing clients continue to fuel our business as well as our financial sponsorship of the Phase I clinical trial.“

Well it looks like they have sensibly closed down the non core projects and using all income to progress IB. There are no associated numbers with the finance statement but given the last warrants didn’t reach the strike price I and others have no doubt been expecting a conversion or placing.

That was some time ago now so the money must be real!

I am absolutely gobsmacked by the science and progress made. It is massively disproportionate to the mcap. Many companies don’t get to a phase one and when they do the dilution is huge and can be catastrophic.

For sure our sp ‘dilution’ has been by the market in terms of a lower sp but we are still in the game. If they get through p1 this should be much much higher! And now we have to believe it really is funded.

Well done MS and team!

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Trek

These guys tell us exactly what they are doing. Going back to 140 pdq I think…

Traders are now going toe to toe with Stifel Nicolaus! Lol!

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Trek

Comments…

“ This good news today adds to the DEC valuation as well as delivering all the usual synergies and accretive earnings made with each acquisition. It also adds to the announcement made yesterday that the DEC board had approved terms of a buy-back programme to take place ‘over several months’ in order to create value for shareholders and will be restricted to 10% of shares outstanding.

There are few companies in the oil sector that offer the incredible value proposition that Diversified does and I’m sure that there will be more deals that will add to that value. The shares are around 15% off the recent peak which offers incredible value as I have always said on a total return basis given the attractive running yield and asset improvement. ”

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/09/oil-price-dec-reabold-getech-afentra-serica-president-uog-i3-and-finally/

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Trek

Crossed again to 25.03% yesterday!

That’s a huge position. 5% more to go!

And yet the SP tanks today.

Probably their brokers shaking out more stock.

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Trek

My apologies to the FT the sharing tool didn’t copy on BRAVE.

Trek

Blackrock on LDI’s…..

“
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https://www.ft.com/content/e2dfb060-a578-45a1-865f-e2e05d86990a

Wiedman said that “temporary market disturbance within the UK” represented “adolescent pains” for LDI, but longer term, “the case for an LDI is actually really powerful”. In an environment of rising interest rates, it will continue to be a growth area, as corporate pension plans will continue to want to hedge their exposure to market volatility.

“I would say that might be the dawn of a new age for LDI, including in the dollar space,” said Wiedman. “We’ll see. It’s just that maybe people have under-provisioned margin calls for temporary shifts in valuations. I think given that assets and liabilities are moving I’m bullish on the LDI market.” 

My point exactly. The question is has PHNX underestimated margin calls. I think not because they have a high tier 2 capital ratio well in excess of what’s needed. This is partly because they are waiting for tax incentives and legislative changes to put the difference into UK plc infrastructure. They don’t have the same level of equity exposure and are well place with their hedging to ride this out.

They will actually benefit if rates go up again!

But common sense says the market disagrees or at least it only agrees at 500p! That’s the dilemma investors have.

I piled in at 532 and have next buy set at 500. I hope it doesn’t get filled though! I would rather see that elusive bounce but the Dow is down 500 already on similar issues around margin calls and buoyant jobs market which seem to be ignoring the feds hawkishness. I think that shows underlying strength in the economy but there you have it.

Pick a narrative!

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Trek

Synt - profit warning following high stock levels of gloves after covid and supply issues.

10-15% reduction in ebitda = +30% off sp!

I don’t hold but have traded them well in past.

Seems all interims are having a brutal negative impact on SP’s of late!

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Trek

Pxc - ridiculous reaction to interims.

Have quoted supply side challenges that they will overcome as bau now but $9m cash end june and well funded plus significant interest in next stage non dilutive funding via bonds.

High risk but imo a good one to tuck away at this price for a couple years!

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Trek

‘ Issue of floating rate, listed, secured, non-convertible, minimum 8.5% copper bonds due 2028-2032 underway. Initial tranche currently under negotiation“

So folk are interested!

Dropped a boob with fx losses but $9m in cash end of June. Pretty much better than expected. So they can continue with ops whilst negotiating funding. No need for the all to common mining death spiral financing!

Usual caveats

Trek