Member Info for TrekMadone

Got some at 528 and a bit! Will sell them later and repeat on next trade.

Have made money here on buys and sells or sells and buys 5x. Still slightly under water but my average is well down now to 558!

Can only really do this though if you intend to hold.

Usual caveats

Trek

58 sell 599 to buy on ii.

‘The market can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent’ comes to mind!

Hopefully when they achieve their ends with this deliberate walk down on low vols as was expected that will be the end of our ‘solvent abuse!’ Yikes!

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Trek

Hi nom,

I thought the same. Just how much do you have to charge/make to pay a 12% margin? Delete!

Trek

Hi Tro,

I note you have taken a position in GCAT. I trust you looked at the last upbeat video which has excellent prospects and ‘no dilution rhetoric!’ and then noted the CLN’s and warrants due in the financials from section 23 onwards!

Best way to play it imo is average in ahead of results as it could hit 5’s and then sell half into the news. Let rest ride and recycle on pullback. Resistance based on warrants will be .85p and 1p irrespective if what the news says!

For sure it’s a very unusual proposition as low mcap producer and explorer. It really illustrates either how cheap they, gcat are or how expensive peers are like ECR, COBR, WSBN, HUMM etc!

Anyways don’t ‘fall in love’ just make money! Not that you need any advice, and that is not my intention. Just sharing war wounds! Lol!

GL!

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Trek

Sold last of JIM today, it’s xd in a couple days. Expecting it to go back to 140’s then. I traded the dip getting in a 98 and it went to 170’s on no news and very low volume.

Banked profit and will look again after FCA inquiry results. I don’t like stock going down or up on low vols!

Added at SEPL to average down. My timing there has not been as good but it’s a solid income share that imo will pay well over the next 5 years albeit I don’t like seeing red in the pf! Will trade some on the next rise.

SMS just keeps on rising no idea why but I bought the dip below 700p as thought they were sold off for liquidity (LDI). Whatever bouncing back strongly now. Will exit half at 900p (again! Lol!). They are an excellent inflation hedge as index linked income!

DEC interview was great thanks Tro. Rusty is dry as toast and as boring as boring can get. He just likes handing money back to shareholders! Perfect! Hoping TA floor is now 125 there!.

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Trek

I have been expecting a rise here on the back of Octopus offering reduced off peak energy costs for those that have smart meters. But nothing in the media. Shares keep rising.

I actually think it’s the energy storage proposition that’s most attractive but again zilch!

Oh well!

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Trek

Out now barchid.

Weak day today and weird drop ahead of divi. No point in holding for divi if sp drops 10p! Can always buy back. Also have good profit from trading from 98p!

Going to add at SEPL seems to have bottomed!

Good luck.

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Trek

VOD results were woeful. As I expected Germany no improvement and UK not plugging gap. Still was a nice anticipation trade in at 98ish and all out at 106ish.

Won’t be following up though for some time…got further to drop imo….phew!

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Trek

Divi reduced AUM down significantly. Pretty much a profit warning. It’s recovered so well from 180 so that has cushioned the blow. Staff at 28% fair play. Chairman’s statement a bit wishy washy. I mean one would hope folk are supported!

Still on sidelines and nearly bought but went for SMS instead as better placed for recession. Will look back in here when there is a sniff of the market changing!

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Trek

Sorry link!

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/11/oil-price-dec-union-jack-sdx-and-finally/

Trek

Malcy comments…

“ DEC continues to deliver, its model is straightforward and has been proven since it came to this market, the strategy of acretive acquisitions is proven time and time again. The model makes for increasing production, 135 Mboepd in Q3 increasing to 144 at the quarters exit as the Conoco deal feeds in.

Opex rose slightly but on the back of higher gas prices and is still low and gives sector beating cash margins staying over 50%. The 20% fcf yield remains a highly positive metric, it ticks a lot of boxes and with successful hedging increasing gas prices in 2023 by 8% and in 2024 by some 4% means that the company has been able to increase the 3Q dividend to 4.375c as well as buying back some 8m shares with more to do.

It is worth looking at just how attractive DEC shares are, especially when compared to its peer group. On the dividend front the company reminds us that it has the potential to deliver ~$5 billion of dividends equal to ~4x current market capitalisation which significantly proves the point, as does the point made above by using the strong dollar to buy in undervalued shares.

Also the strong cash flow covers current plugging liabilities and the asset retirement performance is making significant progress with its ‘illustrative’ 50-year model along with the Next LVL team where market dominance is expected.

I remain positive that the company are delivering in all areas, I expect more acquisitions and therefore more ABS securitisations which will yet again firm up the base. This in turn funds fcf, dividend payments and buy-backs and gives me confidence that the shares will perform via both capital and income returns, holders should be delighted. ”

Delighted indeed!

Trek

Thanks Miller, my typo should have been 42. I was rushing on mobile and have only just had time to read now.

Surprised no buys since 28th from Stifel. Surely soon!

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Trek

G20 seems to be going well. I am surprised it hasn’t been linked to markets given the sht over the last year!

https://www.ii.co.uk/home

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Trek

I held them from 150p to 800p! I never thought they’d go as high as they have!

Good luck, check out BEN as well if you want more risk/return! I don’t hold.

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Trek

That PRU bounce may just have some legs, expect a pullback before another go though. I don’t hold.

China has kicked the can on the property bubble by throwing more money at it!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/chinese-authorities-unveil-sweeping-measures-to-rescue-property-sector?utm_term=6371f1ca6433ad29ecb50adbc32e7a93&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

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Trek

I was hoping for more but the buyback makes future divi’s even more sustainable. A 3% increase is a statement of intent for continued returns and that 10% yield is pretty good.

I had reservations about the hedging following the LDI fiasco where providers didn’t have the liquidity to cover their positions. It’s pretty clear that DEC’s have been paid for upfront on better terms albeit at a $110m modification cost.

For me the security of income is key. I am hoping to add on any pullback or after the xd date.

Usual caveats

Trek

You have a difference of 6.667% extra interest for going over the 90 day threshold. Then you get another 30 days before the rate goes to133.33%.

So it’s unlikely that RM will ‘rush’ any funding for the sake of a few % which is actually on better terms compared to getting another loan.

Or does he fear the CLN conversion and dilution.

What does RM mean by no dilution does that include or exclude this CLN?

If it goes over the 90 days expect the SP to be walked down before conversion. That’s when my 3m goes back in!

If he gets the finance before then happy days.

Also note the management are very unlikely to get their options by year end and repricing of warrants.

With the good liquidity here it’s a share that will attract traders around these milestone dates and if you get caught wrong side it’s no problem holding!

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Trek

Poo outlook….

“Economic headwinds and weak demand from China due to Covid lockdowns have weighed on oil prices in recent months.

Sanctions on Russian oil, the OPEC+ supply cut, and the possibility of China opening up mean that the risk to oil prices is now to the upside.

There is further upside risk for oil due to potential supply disruptions in Russia, Libya, Iraq, and Iran.

Despite global economic headwinds, oil prices could soon return to above $100 per barrel again, sooner than analysts thought two months ago.

While slowing economies and fears of recession have weighed on oil prices for months, the OPEC+ cuts as of this month and the EU embargo on imports of Russian crude by sea from next month—and of Russian oil products from February 2023—could overtighten the market and send oil above $100 a barrel again.

China’s Covid policy and its possible easing at some point next year will also be closely watched by the oil and other commodity markets for signs of a coming uptick in commodity demand if and when Chinese authorities relax the strict Covid rules.

Currently, China’s snap lockdowns and slowing economies are the bearish factors dominating the oil market. But the bullish factors could take the upper hand in the near term, sending oil prices to triple digits again, analysts say.

The OPEC+ decision to cut the headline production target by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) as of November did stabilize the oil market, as OPEC+ claims its goal is. Brent prices stabilized at above $90. The risks from here are more to the upside than to the downside, despite aggressive interest rate hikes to fight inflation, commodity analysts say.

“The oil markets are more vulnerable for a $10 move higher than lower,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on a Gulf Intelligence webinar earlier this week. Talking about a $10 move in oil prices, the risk is still to the upside, Hansen added, citing the first signs of a potential Chinese easing in Covid sometime next year, the OPEC+ cuts, and the EU sanctions on Russian oil.

The market is tight, and some crack spreads around the world are still very elevated, Hansen noted. ……”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Could-Soon-Break-100-As-Upside-Risk-Grows.html

Trek

These are a very impressive set of numbers.

Divi has increased as expected but only by 3% I guess due to buyback costs. But in an inflationary environment that’s pretty good. It works out to about £22 extra pa per 10k shares.

The BoD have worked hard to offset the inflationary impact as seen here..

‘ 3Q22 Cash Margins(a) of 50% (76% unhedged) increased from 2Q22 (48%; 77% unhedged) reflecting higher price realizations, strengthened by its Central Region assets, and efforts to mitigate inflationary pressures. The Company's 3Q22 average realised price of $21.95/Boe ($44.94 unhedged) increased 16% compared to the 2Q22 average realised price of $18.97/Boe ($43.15 unhedged), offsetting increases to Total Unit Cash Expense of 11% over the same period.“

No hints of supply constraints just cost increases. That will also replicate in plugging costs and what we charge others.

They have also improved the hedging terms.

Debt, of which is investment grades, as we know will amortise ahead of well life and the coupon is 5.7% which is excellent! And we have a $400m RCF for acquisitions on same terms!

The ESG narrative is most welcome and shows excellent behaviours which should make DEC investable for ‘sceptics’ as these wells are better with us than legacy. It’s a transition fuel being wound down with line of sight of 4x mcap in dividends, $5bn!

Anyway that’s my first look

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Trek

Ouch!……Heroes!

https://youtu.be/TdXFve9j9jw

Trek