Member Info for TrekMadone

It’s the impact of energy costs and interest rates + recession on their loan book that is of concern. Especially likes of manufacturers. Some impact will be unavoidable. E.g. United glass use a lot of energy, Miriad in leisure space could be deemed as risky but healthcare should fair better.

This $6m royalty deal is a good move and Duke are on top of their game but this investment is really a difficult call. Much of which could be in the SP already. I am not sure either way!

Usual caveats

Trek

“ The pound looks “vulnerable” to further falls and the ensuing recession could have a serious impact on British society, the hedge fund of billionaire Chris Rokos has warned.

Rokos Capital Management, which has about $14.5bn of assets under management, warned investors that the UK had suffered a bigger shock than other developed countries because of Brexit, de-globalisation and the pandemic.

The darkening outlook made it harder for policymakers to keep inflation under control, the company warned in a letter seen by the Financial Times.

“The recession that is required to tame inflation in the UK is deeper than that needed elsewhere, with potentially serious societal implications,” it said. “Sterling looks vulnerable.”

Rokos said it would have to see signs of a “quietly engineered softer Brexit” or higher immigration to be more optimistic on the UK’s outlook.….”

Very good reasons to buy/hold DEC. Growth, product demand and currency hedge. I wonder when Stifel will be back!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/11/25/ftse-100-markets-live-news-pound-hedge-fund-interest-rate/

Usual caveats

Trek

One to watch. I am all over it waiting for an entry…SAFE

1. Results better than market are pricing
2. Debt refinanced and interest rates hedge
3. Vacant space for growth
4. New buildings financed
5. This is a rapid riser when growth returns. It has European coverage that will benefit from move away from just-in-time to on the shelf following supply constraint lessons.

6. Perhaps most importantly look at the chart. Due a visit back to 8’s. 800 is support on 1 and 5 year. That will also give you a good yield and obvious buy zone for when the good times return!

Set buys for 875, 850, 810 and let it ride. Another SMS type opportunity.

Usual caveats

Trek

I mentioned SMS here as a tip at 696!

It pulled back yesterday and has opened up today. Weird sp moves!

Anyways look at the 1 year chart. This could be the second time I have bought under 700p and about to sell for over 900p. Also getting a +4.5% quarterly yield to cover ones ar’se!

Who says luck doesn’t come along twice!

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s just narrative news but today’s Ft front page said that central banks have bought more physical gold this year than since 1967.

I haven’t read the full article.

But I guess that that is since records began and I guess Basel 3 has had an impact as well as obvious macro and crypto weakness (reality!).

https://news.sky.com/story/thursdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-12427754

LikeI say it’s an observational post really for folk thinking about keeping a longer term position here. Moi!

Usual caveats

Trek

Looking at the ‘small’ buys, no leak imo.

Possibly folks tipping some divi income into a left field wild cat off the wall outside chance mega multi-bagger one shot opportunity!

A few hundred quid fits the bill esp given the odds!

It’s only a few of us ‘nut cases’ here that have reduced the odds with extensive DYOR and hopefully using half decent trading skills to stay in touch with the SP that could really make hugely significant gains!

So there you have it, loads of scrappy trades today. SP rises on sd all volumes.

Nothing to see here…. Yet!

But not long now!

Usual caveats

Trek

My best today 86.799!

Order Status Executed
Order Reference QXPXxxxxx
Date 24/11/22
Time 14:10
Stock Name SEPLAT ENERGY PLC NGN0.5 (DI)
Action Buy
Order Type Limit
Symbol SEPL
Quantity 4,000.00
Limit Price £0.87
Price £0.86799
Consideration £3,471.96
Commission £3.99
Stamp Duty £0.00
Levy £0.00
Total £3,475.95
Accrued Interest NGN0.00
Expiry Date 29/12/22
Settlement Date 28/11/22
Settlement Period T + 2
Market Currency GBP
Settlement Currency GBP
Indicative FX Rate n/a

I set orders this week and today first time one was filled automatically! Others at 91p I had to do manually.

This seller will be out soon enough. In the meantime follow one’s own convictions.

I will be tipping more in later.

I saw your not Temple and agree having been looking at the LNG terminal intel and NLNG for export news.

Usual caveats

Trek

There are no surprises in here and they are making excellent progress with their transformation. Agree with reiterated divi policy. That’s key.

Second half will be better as will include winter period.

Expect director buys now out of close period oh and if a bid is to come it should be now with better liquidity here, sp near nadir and the results out the way!

Anyways I had 7 par’s on the bounce to win 5 & 4 today! In the wind and showers. Unbelievable round!

See anything can happen! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Not posted here on RNS tab…

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/form-8-3-paypoint-plc/15728067

A like explanation Zarro

Usual caveats
Trek

Agree Temple, that may explain the selling. Even if they acquire Exxon assets which would put them on a ratings par of BB+/stable with Neptune it looks like their ratings couldn’t surpass that of Niger, BB-/stable.

Usual caveats

Trek

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-trade-ideas/interview--ecora-resources-on-growth-in-royalty-business-221121

Trek

Samson increased short a little yesterday.

https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B02QND93/

No odds to me I bought more today. Bargain imo. TA says it could go as low as 500, a 5 year low but not necessarily and it’s bounced back strongly from there every time.

SP is at odds with news flow and big buyer.

Shorts can also offer a buying opportunity esp for long term hold which I intend here for that income.

Usual caveats

Trek

JPM short here 17-11-22

https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B4X1RC86/

Only 0.53%

Probably expecting a brief pull back below 800 as it’s defied gravity! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

APH - profit warning today. Shares hit. Rampy statement from BoD, lipstick on a pig! Director also taking time out for personal reasons…. But the ship is steady! Yeah right, China woes and stock issues!

Oh and look at the short tracker…. JPM opened a short on 10-11-22!

What a coincidence!

https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0031030819/

Usual caveats

Trek

I am interested in what Stifel are doing. I think that as the buyback was to take advantage of ‘cable’ and they haven’t bought any this month it may be that they set a 114 ceiling…that aligns with the chart over the buy period of October

https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart

I thought they may have taken a few off to mitigate the divi, they still have today if that is the case.

Or of course they may be waiting until tomorrow to buy xd.

Or they may have decided there is something accretive that’s come up for the cash

Or they may have decided to end it and hand back the cash via special divi.

Or….etc etc!

To answer the earlier question this one hasn’t really moved around the divi dates in the past or moved and recovered quickly bar the last divi when it took quite a while to come back.

Usual caveats

Trek

Take your pick on outlook…

Goldman oil and commos best place to be…

Or

Decline in demand in China, us want prices lower, balanced by opec will likely cut

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/jim-oneill-on-the-status-of-global-trade/vi-AA14pZLS?category=foryou

I think that adds to bullish! Esp for 23!

Fingers on the button!

Usual caveats

Trek

Agree temple, the small trades are AT ALGO’s and I also suspect some of the buys shown are actually sells today.

Still at least there is nothing on the short tracker for SEPL. We could just have a buyer that is selling stock to get a better price for a bigger buy. Who knows.

Would be funny if another buyer steps in earlier or news lands but the closer we get to hols the more likely that will be the new year.

Usual caveats

Trek

According to FT.

Well that’s proverbial ‘peanuts’. The increase. In interest rates will net out a significant benefit imo.

Usual caveats

Trek

HE1 new rig. They were blindsided by legals on previous deal. Of course it cost them time and money! Up 18% some folk just can’t bring themselves to sell into news!

Defo one to buy for a punt but atm it’s a traders dream!

Usual caveats

Trek

WINK - lettings agency. Good update from them. Just goes to show that even in a tough property market if there isn’t enough supply there always seems to be buyers!

CNIC look at the 5 year, nice staircase. Could be due the next step up if those numbers don’t deliver a good rerate one wonders what it will take. If not now at least on finals in January. Outlook remains v bullish and they are deleveraging!

My TXP where I have my largest holding looking forward to next year has held above 70p. Could be due a run Dec/Jan but the biggest gains should come through 23. Defo one for anyone that wants to investigate a well financed O&G producer/explorer that’s underpinned by revenues and risk to upside to look at. Not as potentially sp explosive as many out there but should prove to be a steady climber with relatively derisked newsflow ahead.

Usual caveats

Trek