Member Info for Toukankahmoon

CJ62

No I like to watch Traitors live. It’s a relief from the backstabbing and potty mouthed squabbling on here😁😁😁

. . . to support 2 clinical and at least 1 preclinical trial over the next year. These are expensive. I thought that the excellent superb 6100 P1 results due end 25 would trigger a license deal with Novartis. But we were told another cycle was required for more data. And no deal is yet forthcoming. And CC has definitely lost her sparkle.

So expert experienced well informed punters what do you think will happen next in order to trigger a fund raising event and will it be licence deal, takeover, share issue, NASDAQ dual listing or divine intervention. When do you predict it will happen?

The keys are;

dox half life in plasma

6000 half life in plasma

rate of cleaving

6000 half life in tumour environment

Without info on these on a timeline starting at time of infusion we cannot conclude anything.

Anyway why does it matter? We have 6103.

I am relieved to see that the SP has bounced but here is a reminder that there is a long way to go.

************************

What this implies for future AVA6103 milestones

Event Likely historical analogue Expected behaviour

__________________________________________

IND filing AVA6000 IND (2021) Mild / muted

IND effective AVA6000 US start Little impact

FPI AVA6000 UK FPI Moderate interest

Early signals AVA6000 Phase 1b Strong upside

Long gap 2023–24 Drift risk

And on financial side - need for cash

Pedrol

No. I continually post that I am not buying or selling

NFTs why do you continually misquote me in order to try to prove your points.

I said it looked as if we’d bounced before testing 50p and that I hoped we would.

I’ve missed nothing. I have already said that my Avacta holding is an uncomfortable proportion of my share portfolio.

Avacta needs a lot of cash to progress 2 clinical and 1 preclinical trials. And repay a debt. I thought that money was coming from a Novartis license deal but it looks increasingly unlikely as the days tick by.

The 6000 results we’ve been given are from an October cutoff and are lacklustre. And obviously not good enough to secure a deal.

The truth is that our pivotal moment has been kicked along the road again for another 6 months. Even if I wanted to increase my holding now is not the time. I am making more money elsewhere.

Certainly looks as if we will bounce rather than breaking through 50p resistance hope so

But I’m too exposed at the moment and there’s a few months before the next pivotal moment.

Good luck to those who do fill their boots at prices we’ll never ever ever see again. Oh hold on when have I seen that before 120 100 80 50 30

I imagine most of the money going back in today is PIs reinvesting money they took out at 80p recently.

NFTs

Ripped up to 53.9 from the opening price of 54.2.

Brilliant

HarChris

But I haven’t bought any of the dips for over 3 years. Similarly I haven’t sold any shares over the same time period. In the dim dark past I have top sliced but I’m not brave enough now.

NFTs

The lock in is important. But everyone expects it to happen. It’s already factored into the SP. That’s why financially it’s a non-event.

How you conclude that the funding situation is hunky dory, Heaven only knows.

We have 2 clinical trials and one preclinical trial to fund and clearly not enough cash.

And that is why the SP matters. Normally a fund raise has a capital target. The impact on dilution is different if you are raising that cash at 50p rather than £2. So yes the SP matters. Also in the context of any NASDAQ listing

B2H

“All of these aspects, can take over a year before hitting go on manufacturing and really being ready to file that IND.”

Is that supposed to cheer me up.

I know the expectation was IND filing in December but we don’t know whether it happened. However it would be reasonable to assume it happened by 18th. So fingers crossed it did and the 30 days runs out next week whereupon Avacta can assume they can press ahead unless specifically told otherwise by then. 👍👍👍👍

Runner

Oh yes sorry I forgot. You are bitter and twisted because you are so far underwater and all your great predictions continue to fail to materialise.

Be patient. We have a few months yet before the pivotal moment.

Meanwhile next support level is around 50p. We need some serious ramping today. Where are all those tedious lists of our past achievements. Come on Pom Poms. Up school. 🤡

Under US FDA regulations::

A clinical trial in the US cannot begin until an IND is in effect

“Begin” includes:

Recruiting patients

Screening (beyond very limited pre-screening)

Dosing (FPI)

This is set out in 21 CFR Part 312.

Where does Avacta state what date the IND was filed??

Why if AVA6000 clinical results are so good, does P1 still have to do another cycle? Will it have to do yet another one after that or even finish P2 before a deal is struck?? Why was the data cut off October, what has happened since?

You should all be asking yourselves these questions.

So many on here have reasoning motivated towards the best outcome. It’s a confirmation bias where you see all information in a rosy light that supports your wish for Avacta’s success. The biggest problem is that none of us has the complete understanding of what is going on. As always the issue is with what Avacta doesn’t say in its communications.

Runner

If you’ve found the odd post that I mistyped as 5% well done you. Most of the others say around 20% with variations.

Why do you spend all this time trying to discredit me?

What does it matter to you how many or what proportion of my investments are in Avacta. It’s a very sad person that wastes time analysing someone else’s posts to find inconsistencies just to point score.

Under US FDA regulations:

A clinical trial in the US cannot begin until an IND is in effect

“Begin” includes:

Recruiting patients

Screening (beyond very limited pre-screening)

Dosing (FPI)

This is set out in 21 CFR Part 312.

Livedin

25% of my overall share portfolio but getting smaller as we speak. I invest in other things as you will know from my posts

Regarding 6103. I went back over Spotlight presentation. CC says interesting things about half life. Best not to go there.

But regarding timelines she forecast IND IN 4Q25. I would have thought this was important enough to RNS. So I’m guessing it’s late. She forecast FPI in 1Q26. Looks like mid February. Rampers concluded that this is FPD but it may just be FPI.

I’m still working on first early results publishing in June which will be the next pivotal moment unless end of 6000 P1 pips it to the post which I doubt. All efforts will concentrate on 6103 and then 6207 etc

As posted before:

Starting P1a clinical trial just means filing for IND. There are a whole load of things that then need to happen before the first cohort actually get dosed. Based on AVA6000 and CC’s description this will be around June 26.

This doesn’t annoy me. This is what I am expecting. What hacks me off is the continual hysteria about takeovers and licensing deals next week. And bidding wars being triggered by JPM and other conferences. It’s all ramping b*ll*cks.

It still hasn’t dawned on the Pom Pom girls that if they continue to make over ambitious predictions of Avacta progress, then they will continue to be disappointed.

Watching

We’ve already got one apparently. - with Tempus.

Bella

Given that you think my predictions are ludicrous, why would you think anyone on here would be swayed by them and sell.

In fact despite my believable timescale predictions, I’m not selling.