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Enjoyed that Moonparty and yes your maths are wrong, (as you know).
But all good fun - and we finish for the weekend in blue !
It's the weekend - Andrew Bridgen was making some dramatic comment in Parliament yesterday re. mRNA vaccines. Worth a watch ? https://youtu.be/z4oSLajsHrY
I noticed this a few days ago on PoG - Inan 7839. I'm guessing It's Trinity Delta's previous attempt to put a value BACK THEN on Scancell at SP 30p on a measly 10% chance of success !
""Why is everyone stressed ?
Scancell Holdings PLC - Addressable Market Opportunity. As stated earlier, the overall cancer immuno-therapy market was estimated at $86bn in annual revenues in CY2021 – forecast to increase to $272bn by CY2030 – a 13.6% CAGR – substantially ahead of the 8.2% CAGR for the overall oncology market.
From a financial perspective, one of the factors with the greatest appeal is the wide number of solid cancers the company could potentially address across its 4 platforms – over 10 – ranging from head and neck cancer, to triple negative breast cancer, colorectal cancer, renal cancer, ovarian cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, prostate cancer, bladder cancer, pancreatic cancer, small cell lung cancer, et al.
If one considers the incidence rate of these various indications across just 7 key markets – the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, Australia and Japan – and after appropriately adjusting for expression rate, diagnosis rate, compliance rate, the addressable patient population is between 550,000 – 600,000 patients (across these 7 markets.
Translating this into a revenue opportunity depends on the mode of treatment elected – for instance chemotherapy and radiation is much cheaper than using check point inhibitors and antibody drug conjugates. Our revenue estimates have been built up by indication with estimates for the United States, versus other markets. To illustrate an example, we estimate the revenue opportunity for Modi-1 alone would be around $9bn in annual revenue (across the 4 indications of head and neck cancer, triple negative breast cancer, renal cancer and ovarian cancer).
Depending on the market share assumed – every 10-percentage point market share equates to $900m in annual revenue – just on the Modi 1 platform alone. As stated in the investment summary, we think there is potential (if all ducks line up) for the peak annual revenue opportunity (across platforms / indications) to be around US$12 bn.
From an opportunity perspective, the biggest value drivers are Modi – 1 and Modi – 2, given that they target so many indications, followed by the mAbs (SC129, SC134, SC88 and SC27). Both Modi – 1 and Modi – 2 could potentially deliver $3bn in peak annual revenues, if all goes well. Adjusted with even a 10% chance of success, this implies around $600m – more than 3x the current market capitalization of the company""
Why indeed ? But I'm guessing stress would be reduced somewhat if SP was actually 30 pence.
Thanks Inan for a nice reminder. Just asking the question, just for fun, if success should be 100%, does that mean a potential MCap of $6 billion?
I'm dreaming on. Back in my box now. GLA
Over there, courtesy of Marcus . . one of 3 Companies on a One2One Forum, 29th May, 6pm at the Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, (in Mayfair).
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/444?
hTTps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/444?viewSource=TwitterUK
Cheer up Rob . . .
C11 - I agree. An address to an audience is far better than a Poster although some Attendees will no doubt pick out a particular Poster from the program, visit and ask questions.
Yes hard on the heels of AACR last week. Good !
'but' not 'nut' . . .
On 'PoG or PoS' thread over there, an interesting discussion between Inan and Bermuda about the timing of possible interest arising from the SCIB1 / iSCIB1+ trials.
To expand on previous comment, the thread I politely call PoG is actually, "Pot of Gold OR Pot of S*** "
Firmly the former in my view of course - nut not just yet. GLA
Thanks Burble. I had wondered if you were the long lamented Puritas who was one of many other Posters missing now!
Likewise - "nearly 13 years it’s been and still waiting for something transformative to happen." GLA
Burble 16.12 - re. "it just seems to have fallen a bit flat" - I agree absolutely. Re. 14 years, your identity shows an 11 year history? May I ask if you used to post under another name? Just curiosity? Whatever, sincere thanks for all your contributions here.
Re. Redx - some great posts in this discussion but I agree with EE, - "the exit route here is a corporate deal" . . . . but maybe only for a single platform and as Buddha suggests, "it will land with a bang".
Cleaner, thanks for the 'Fierce' link and whilst it's disappointing to see no mention of Scancell, 'Fierce' is 'fluff' in this process. IMO it's really the personal interactions between CEO and Pharma that we cannot be told about that will move us forward . . . we just don't know what may be going on. Remember CEO's earlier report of a comment from Moderna.
Dalester 18.36 - agree with your perspective on meets such as AACR but at the very least, I was hoping for prompt if bland comment from team Scancell after the event. I am surprised that with the 'beefed up' team, we have not had that yet . . . but there may be good reasons for the quiet. We'll see.
I've added Kash to Drac in my filter. GLA
Thanks Iofas. I got sleep as I'm BST + 6 hrs !
I very much doubt if anything I post here will affect the SP in any way at all. Just recounting some thoughts. ATB
An RNS is possible any day, including today.
Recalling the comment made by Moderna at a recent Event, to our CEO, to the effect that, "if you're right, we're in trouble", it's OK to wonder if Moderna have learnt much more on that theme lately?
Prof. Lindy will surely have had chats at least with BioNTech and Moderna in this adjacency, for sure. Whilst it's fair to bewail our 'missing' RNS, when it arrives, let's hope it proves worth the wait.
I think it possible that with discussions, meets, travel etc., matters Scancell might be busy over there. We'll see . . . GLA
Hi Violin, yes just 38C down here. Surprised no RNS today but IMO it won't be long. I'll try to get back to 'patient' mode for now. ATB
Thanks Burble. I enjoyed this bit : " . . . it does genuinely feel like cancer vaccine science is gaining momentum... the really exciting thing is these results are from clinical trials".
Thanks Chester. Lost in time zones . . . .
I think someone suggested we might get signals from X or linked-in etc. and that would be interesting. GNA
Chester re. yours try this https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?
With SCLP you can search 2 more threads. And thanks Bermuda.
Inan prolific on PoG. Good effort. Comment on the 'thrust' of it would be interesting. ATB
Thanks again Bermuda for the usual clarity. This data release process seems quite fusty to me but of course there are reasons. So we wait for Monday. ATB
Yes Mia me too, thanks Konar
Thanks Bermuda !