Member Info for Tornadotony

Thank God we really need this.

London is seeing a dramatic surges in cases. Northeast London is very badly like a pandemic version of the Blitz. I am not sure how many A&E departments North of the Thames will be able to take patients by next Monday morning. This is looking worse than back in March and April in the first wave hit that was really bad in Northwest London. The mutated virus is hitting hard. I think its game on for Synairgen and everything else that can be used against Covid-19. The first patient dosed on P3 start is quite likely to hit the metropolitan news . It really is a case of the spitfire (Synairgen ) defence as patient care in all other areas of disease burden more or less stops for millions of British people in London. Our doctors and nurses need everything that is available that can make a difference otherwise it could be the worse Christmas the UK has ever seen with the capital taking a crisis hit.

The consolidation is now tightly in the apex of a triangle or pennant and has coiled up like a massive spring. I am expecting an explosive move either tomorrow or Monday morning. Pensana either breakout and moves with so many other miners and go up on USA stimulus package or it breaks seriously down. I believe the news is possibly USA stimulus. How it feeds into Pensana is probably loose money looking for a nice asset home.

I have just spoken to a very recent retired nurse and of course their registration comes to an end. 1000's of nurses are currently retiring especially end of this month. The NHS is having a massive problem finding enough staff to do the vaccinations. So do they offer retiring nurses, paramedics, phlebotomists and anyone who can do the vaccinations any extended employment and retire say in six months time well the answer to that is emphatically no. If anyone thinks there is intelligent life managing the vaccine roll out well you may need to think about that one again. I wish them luck finding firemen doing the jabs or maybe that will all go to a private contractor as well.

https://uk.images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?p=technical+charts+reverse+head+and+shoulders&fr=mcafee&imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketgeeks.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F03%2Fmain-pic-head-shoulders.gif#id=-1&iurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketgeeks.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F03%2Fmain-pic-head-shoulders.gif&action=click

Share is still within the inverse head and shoulder formation and my forecast on Friday and Monday still holds. Support line will have moved up to 96p area and will keep moving higher each day this week.

1. At the present time USD has been devaluing and this increases the price of nearly all commodities in dollars. The rise in sterling pound is 4.5% against USD of late and so $2 per barrel increase in oil price equates to the devaluation broadly speaking since Biden was elected on 3 November. China purchasing which will ease back was responsible for another $3. It is possible that further devaluation of USD may arise so there is a chance of oil staying around the current levels and may off set against China buying less oil if that happens.

2. The impact on the Tullow share price priced in sterling is neutral on a devaluing dollar and oil price uplift as they cancel each other out. This of course would change with a no trade deal with EU as sterling would join the dollar in its decline and Tullow share price goes up. I am not sure if a deal is getting priced into the sterling currency as otherwise Tullow will have a sterling headwind and may decline in sterling value along with nearly all the other UK listed stocks.

3. The joy of Covid-19 vaccines arrival is now facing a problematic distribution. Demand is huge. Problems in production are occurring, difficulties in facilitating vaccinations are arising and finally nobody knows for sure how effective the vaccines will be and whether they impact on viral transmission rates. Demand for oil in Q1 may get some help from a colder winter and we are seeing some signs of it with lower temperatures in China. However economic demand on other uses is declining and the stimulus packages being rolled out may not impact on oil that much if most places are locked down in hibernation until April. On top of this we are seeing an increasing mutation rate on the Covid-19 virus which can now spread more easily than before.

Overall, it is probably helpful that Tullow are in a transition year with lower production and that if they deliver multiple new wells in Jubilee, the company will have much higher production rates when the oil price really does move up on demand rather than dollar depreciation. In the meantime Tullow is locked in a trading range and it remains 25p-36p. It may well be a case of selling the top end of the range and buying at the bottom end. The problem with no volatility is that it will stay where it is, but for some people that may be just fine as they have a long term horizon.

Next level of resistance at 132p. Two resistance lines are currently broken.

Synairgen breaking out on no news and it has arisen 48 hours earlier than I anticipated. We shall know fairly soon if the breakout is real. 95p is likely to be support. I wonder if an RNS has been booked for tomorrow and a fund has jumped the gun.

Its well below real value. At least 20p in the share price is cash they have in the bank. Likely to earn 19p per share next year. Its trading on a forward PE rate of 5. Dividend yield could be as high as 5% in 2021 for a gold price average of $1800 per ounce. If goes to 1900 average the company divi may be 8% at the current SP. Another highly undervalued share.

Mimr

Simple reasons are as follow;
1. Some of us thought they could off-load the Kenya asset and get say $300M for it and that is not really possible.
(Lucky to get $150M for it which is say priced in) Value to the stock 7.5p.
2. Drop in production is worse than anticipated for 2021. At least $30M earnings are not going to happen. Value to stock lost 1.25p.
3. Exploration assets devalued by $100M in July 2020. Value to stock lost 5p.

Tony

Ever 6 months Tullow has a meeting with its 6 bankers to discuss the reserve bank lending facility. So Tullow debt of $2.3B comprises of bonds of which $660M is due in 2022 and they have another load of bonds in 2025 and $300M to pay off in June this year. The RBL element was reduced to $700M. The RBL provides liquidity or an overdraft that a company needs while differing the cash flow and meeting outgoing obligations. If the RBL calls in its debts for repayment, Tullow has several months to respond. The issue the RBL has that if Tullow sold all its assets the RBL would be paid along with bond holder debt but shareholders would be wiped out. The RBL alternatively may approve its lending and another six months goes by to the next hurdle in September. Another option is they may suggest a placing of some kind if the company wanted more debt to develop the Jubilee field and have a higher probability of rolling over some bond debt that was due in 2022. Hope that helps.

Although the copper resources are not in high concentration a 50% conversion to resources delivers $285M in copper revenue over future years on present prices. It equates to 2.5 years of mine life and is just in the Gedabek copper resources. Essentially it is a very handy by-product when mining for gold. The true gold resources are significantly higher than posted on JORC.

Quiet before the RBL storm.

More gold in those Tanzania deposits. Get ready to say goodbye to the 13p handle.

Prosecco,

Synairgen share price can move on a 4 hour time bar. So if drifted lower to 91p say it would move back above 94p in a 4 hour window to hold a rising support line. On Wednesday and Thursday the 4 hour time bars are moving up. So the support can drift higher to 96p as it approaches the first resistance point. As time passes the support line may continue increasing higher by penny or two each day. So if for example the breakout was to 130p and it managed to stay there for a week say, it would find new support around 108p if it were to pull back and then move up again more slowly from there. This assumes the chart pattern stays bullish and we have a trend that is supportive for the share price.

It will be interesting if what I point out is correct. The last time I gave a view on the Synairgen chart, it was very accurate. If I get it right in advance again it will be the second time this month. It is however, just an opinion. TT

The following is my personal opinion on how I see the current chart pattern. It is apparent that since 8th December a support line has built up on the 4 hourly chart. The close tonight is just above the new support line which has been sustained without any major breaches. The resistance lines above are at 98p and 102p. The chart is forming a triangle with the December 8th spike to 100-102p. If Synairgen continues on its same path the triangle will complete either Friday or the following Monday morning at the open. Completion of the move may coincide with a news event by the company or some other source. The pattern appears bullish in my opinion. Once 102p is breached a possible breakout rise may occur and of course gets sold into at some point to be taken back to the support line.

Examination of the 3 monthly chart also shows an inverse head and shoulders formation with the neckline on the right shoulder forming around 100p-105p. This pattern is also bullish.

Support lines are at 82p and 88p.

I do appreciate that chart patterns have limits on their reliability. However I thought I would comment on what I see.

Regards Tony

I hope your proved right. BP is way behind Shell's recovery. I was expecting BP to find 310-315p area once Brent was in the 50's. I believe this share is 15% below the mark.

On 1 November 11,000 ounces of hedge remained. If they just sold hedged gold all of last month which was on the mean of forecast production it would have left 4,350 ounces. If the hedge sold continued at the same pace, Shanta will be free from hedged gold in 4 days. The Sunday morning of 20 December 2020 is independence day for Shanta.

Stand corrected on Odey as I thought it was the same as before. Odey are selling lots of stock on other shares as well. They may be holding more cash in the portfolio. I wonder if it has to do with Brexit than anything Shanta specific.