Member Info for Tornadotony

Whatever happens and I miss a rebuy opportunity, I will wish you all the very best. Pensana gave me a fantastic return and protected my portfolio in the year of a global pandemic and I am grateful for that. Best wishes Tony.

At 111p this morning. Top sliced yesterday as well. Expecting a retreat back down to 72p. Classic pump and dump. Executed craftily by ASX yet again. The share to retest support lines.

This should be raised at the January presentation. It is becoming a real issue. Most of the morning spread quotes were 9p apart or around 6.9% between buy and sell offers. What I suggest everyone does if they want to buy or sell is to place and leave orders in the book and see if the market maker is competent to move the price around to capture reasonable sells and buys without such wide spreads and can match them without ripping everybody off.

The storage data from API and EIA gets messed up with Christmas and New Years Day most years. On top of that Government data is derived by a lot of best guess work. Stocks that gain from favourable guesses get a readjustment on second revised data a week or so later. If Tullow goes down this week, especially on economic news, it may well improve next week and then its business as usual.

Support at 136p and resistance at 150p. Running through a range in the chart. Major support at 109p and Major resistance is around 174p. An RNS on first dosing has the company quite possibly testing SP major resistance.

Anyone saying this is a Covid only stock is completely wrong. As an anti-viral lung infection generic product, it has a share value of plus £2. The company could maintain enough sales to deliver £50M profit a year without Covid-19 market which is a PE rate of 4 on a share price of £2.

Anything is possible in 2021.
The pretty.
1. The company can strike oil in Suriname.
2. The Iranians decide not to dump oil on the market and support the OPEC supply allocations.
3. Governments can get the vaccine rolled out effectively by end of May.
4. Iraq supply of oil gets disrupted.
5. A lot of demand comes back into the market.
6. Somebody buys Kenya assets for say $250M.
7. They strike oil again off Guyana.
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The ugly.
1. The virus mutates and the vaccine efficacy falls and pandemic off switch keeps hitting demand.
2. The RBL does not go as planned with some banks feeling the CEO put lipstick on a piggy and they demand more monies to off-set future debt.
3. Suriname well is a duster.
4. Jubilee production goes under 65,000 barrels a day.
5. The Iranians dump oil on the market and OPEC plus efforts fall apart in limiting supply.
6. The Kenya asset has no takers and just takes up more of Tullow monies and attention.

End of year around 28.25p-28.5p.
Looking backwards instead of future they made no profit this year and had to sell Uganda with a mark down of $250M. They started the year around 63p. Take off from oil utilised and not replaced at $270M. Of the remaining $1200M I take $250M off from Uganda removal. The company assets like Kenya I now devalue by $140M. Leaves $540M = 28.4p.

We are due an update in January.

1. The company to inform us when the engineers will actually return to post and whether they need to recruit more engineers in case anyone chose not to return.
2. The final production figures in Q4. Although the finances earnings may be unaudited they can tell us at least what they actually produced for 2020.
3. They need to give guidance on the production for 2021 which is by far the most important information. My own guestimate is that production for 2021 remains unchanged as some 10,000 GEO ounces did not get mined out and that Q1 is a 25,000 ounces GEO quarter unless they adjust the mining plan to prevent a Q2 drop off.
4. The special dividend is not on as the extra ounces did not get mined but an indication of earnings in 2021 and dividend rate continuation is message to be received.
5. Capex spending needs to be made transparent along with more exploration reserves and resources updates.

All this data is needed to give a fair valuation for the shares. The company should have $31M in the bank end of 2020 and 2021. They may want to commit FCF earned in 2021 that is not part of the divi component to all be spent this year on asset mine development in Azerbaijan. The company also demonstrates 80,000 GEO production stability in future years or perhaps some growth on that number by giving a 3 year production profile but we need to accept that as just as a forecast target.

As of Christmas Eve 3966 patients were in bed occupancy with Covid-19 in all London hospitals with 462 of those patients on mechanical ventilation. All planned procedures in my hospital in North London ceased a week ago. I gather Imperial UCH was under a major incident last week with Covid-19 and unable to accept any patients. The numbers are going up higher.

To Nagyielad

The synairgen (on lse share indicator it is SYNA) beta interferon nebuliser goes into stage 3 clinical trials in the coming days. So if you get any influenza, pneumonia or Covid virus try and get a dose as it stops viral replication in the lungs. There is an on-going trial for COPD patients. Good luck Tony

Overbought with stochastics at 100%. It can remain overbought but its a cautionary post amongst all the excitement.

EIA draw down. A different story to the API last night. Matt wales you were right.

Came to the rescue of oil and pumped up 50 cents. Now have pound sterling well past $1.35 and rising. EIA in 10 minutes we shall soon see what happens and who is the winner of today.

Should then drop to USA close. Tullow possible bull trap closing.

Dan (Corrected as auto correct changed a few things)

A lot of us on here will not be expert on shorting but I would imagine if they closed shorts they would open more later at a slightly higher price. The key is the oil price, oil demand and oil supply. Note Tullow production is going down and is off set by production cost cuts so the situation is rather flat for Tullow. Demand in Europe is going down the plug hole, USA demand is falling and OPEC supply is increasing. Its not looking pretty out there to be overweight on oil stocks at the present time. Later on in 2021 it could well be a different scenario completely as vaccination numbers become meaningful

Dan

A lot of here will not be expecting on shorting but I would imagine if they closed shorts they would open more later at a slightly higher price. The key is the oil price, oil demand and oil supply. Note Tullow production is going down and is off set by production cost cuts so the situation is rather flat for Tullow. Demand in Europe is going down the plug hole, USA demand is falling and OPEC supply is increasing. Its not looking pretty out there to be overweight on oil stocks at the present time. Later on in 2021 it could well be a different scenario completely as vaccination numbers become meaningful.

I believe it is possibly topping out and we consolidate towards the support line. It then runs up again in January. The reality is the company is not a producer. The exploration results lift the NAV base higher so as to keep the share in the 70's. 90p is strong resistance area. Its going great and we should be pleased to have an uptrend.

I believe the share is likely to now retreat myself. API data was weak and EIA data this afternoon could well be ugly.

I am hoping the support line moves up 0.5p to 0.6p every trading session until the BFS report so the bottom tonight is 68.5p. End of year the support line at 72p. Near end of January before BFS its around 82p-84p. If we have no news during all that time it would be an incredible warm up to the BFS. I expect consolidations and touch back to the support line as it edges higher. This however is the only pattern visible at this time and we need to see if it pans out that way over the remainder of December.

As an aside I was asked by my cousin in USA what our status was in he forbidden zone of London with the lockdown etc and my reply was that we had 22 high quality bottles of wine and 3 bottles of fantastic West Indies rum. That might get a thumbs up from Pensana investors in Australia.

I have GEO production on 80,000 estimates ounces again after working through all the data available. Q1 could well be the best quarter of the year.