Member Info for Tornadotony

The company is putting a lot of things right. Looks good for Q4 in 2021. Hopefully the response is constructive.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AAZ/new-copper-and-gold-discovery-at-gedabek/14831496

Yippee its going to rise this morning. Great news everybody.

Has another war started or something. Its getting ridiculous.

Holding cash equivalent to my on-going position in Synairgen. If they want to give away cheap shares again, like many others here I will be a buyer. I am however expecting current support to hold.

I Wish everyone good luck. I may have gone in on any retreat to 91p, but have decided to call it a day. My original 21p entry works out at 191p exit after all the additional buying and selling on the journey and I think its a best record that I do not want to spoil. There are some risks ahead, but also many rewards. I am content with what I achieved from investing in the company.

Not a trading suspension but a trading halt. Trading suspension is an action to protect share holders and most likely bad news. A trading halt under a TR1 can be good or bad news. So the company has a material change in plans or bad news such as a company personnel of major importance has died of Covid-19 as an example. Nobody knows why, but whatever it was they have a problem communicating on ASX without causing a disadvantage to LSE holders.

Some investors believe it makes no difference what happens on one market and that it continues onto another market without chart gaps. I disagree with that view.

The Uganda sale paid $500M debt off RBL. (Net debt of $2.9B became $2.4B). As part of that arrangement the RBL agreed to pay off the $300M debt due in June in 2021. The Uganda FID $75M then goes to RBL later on off setting more debt owed to them. During 2021-2024 the company would be paying off a lot further debt off the RBL and they work out how they pay off the 2025 bond as they work up to it. I suspect the bond may have to be paid off unless they made some huge discovery somewhere else to take out another bond as the company has more future years of business.

With the new concessions and planned prospects, I can see AAZ producing 85,000 ounces on average for 8 years with $340M net profit after all taxes. This gives a market cap of £250M or a share price of 216p. This is based on an average gold price between $1875-1900 ounce. At a sell price of 122p the gold price of $1460-$1500 per ounce is the current trade or that forecast production this year is to be only 45,000 ounces of equivalent gold. We are just waiting for confirmation on how many ounces they anticipate to mine out this year.

To correct a few comments. Tullow has two bonds the 2022 and 2025 bonds. Its later 2025 bonds that are moving up. If bonds move up the SP usually moves up. If the bond prices get discounted lower than the SP fall hard on Tullow and that is a fact. I suspect something is being renegotiated on bond maturity dates. How this would be done is that RBL pays off the 2022 bond. A new bond is issued say for 2027. On receipt of the monies for that new bond the equivalent is paid off the RBL which they spent on getting over the 2022 bond timeline. The 2025 bond then becomes the first bond to be paid off. If something like this was being done it would be very positive news. It would allow a higher oil price now to be used for developing the Ghana fields without taking on more debt. This gives a good stock price outlook for Tullow in 2022 as production would go much higher.

https://www.bourse.lu/security/US899415AE32/266318

Something is getting fixed up.

Goldman Sachs got involved with Tullow when I think it was under 23p last year and got out when it was 38p early June 2020. I suspect some good news down the pipeline with their involvement.

Should also add Centamin is getting oversold.

The last two occasions Centamin had 6 down days in a row (today would be 6 in a row if we stay put as now) the share rebounded higher quite sharply. See Chart mid March and also what happened in May 2020.

https://newsgrowing.com/2021/01/12/founder-of-a-147m-crypto-ponzi-scheme-sentenced-to-10-years-in-prison/

May have hit the bottom. We should know in the next 5-10 minutes.

CD

My shed loads are still held. The overweight I sold at 18.6p can be bought back if they want to go under 16p as I am always happy to collect second dippings. Tony

In reply to Shpunken.

We have an ascending support line which now rests at 156p which was the coincidence point on the last news. It may be possible to break a support line intraday, but it has not closed below the support line since the rise from 89p or so. To speculate on a break of support would probably need fundamental news. I can not see the chance of getting more cheap Synairgen shares unless Polar decided to off load into the market.

Overall, if things go well and its a big if, the Synairgen on average should move up a penny per session day. The move has volatility both ways but on average I would hope to see a modest drift upwards and the touch backs are just to confirm the move in the support line.

Unlike a number of other gold miners putting in what I call higher lows, the AAZ chart is more bullish as if a recent low is behind it. We shall soon see how things pan out in that regard. Hopefully my own comments were not considered negative. I just feel the company has a lot more information to share with us, but they needed a bit more time to do it and also they have to decide the order of how they will do things on what is a big list of prospects. I will not be surprised on a second RNS arriving next Thursday.

If it does the share revisits mid to high 80's and then forms a higher high after the BFS. The higher low has to complete by 25 January if it happens. Pensana has followed this type of pattern since it joined LSE back in July and it will be interesting to see if the pattern continues in the same way.

At this particular moment in time that may be 15.5p on the sell and 15.75 on the buy. The advantage of a higher low going in is to get a higher high 4 weeks or so later.