Member Info for Tornadotony

The original support line from 9 December remains in play. The share is in consolidation. It has 3 support lines at 171p, 175p and at 179p. It will require a lot of selling to breakdown all the support lines. However, resistance lines now exist at 203p and at 211p. The trading range is therefore 179p to 203p. Any move in that range is consolidation with again a drift higher in the coming weeks and traders are likely to exploit it.

News that could risk support lines is likely to be limited to adverse events in the on-going Synairgen trials and arrival of new Covid-19 therapeutics that could challenge Synairgen in the market place. Keytruda (Merc) mentioned by Bloomberg yesterday is not a competitor to Synairgen. The long list of side effects and its reliance on manipulating T cell pathways is not a promising approach in my opinion and i can not see clinicians prescribing it over Synairgen for patient benefit.

regards Tony

Vaccines are now affecting oil company stocks according to Bloomberg and others as it fears a major delay for economies to open up and consume oil products.

The only reason for the pull backs in Tullow, BP and RDSB of late is probably delays in vaccine role out. As more vaccine producers come on line this may help energy companies.

Synairgen has held a breakaway gap above the previous resistance line. It is still early days, but the possibility of a new likely resistance target of 225p by 8th February is on the horizon. This assumes a close of 190p or higher and holding this price tomorrow.

I have a convergence of resistance and support meeting on 17th or 18th of February at 18.75p. Share is being confined into an area of strong support and resistance. A case of patience and holding to see the direction.

The chart is in a triangle with descending resistance and rising support line. Will profile when they converge. I suspect the change factor to be a move in the gold price. Triangles indicate a big move on the horizon.

I have mentioned how the ups and downs yield a net positive one penny a trading increase per trading day. If the gradient changes higher I will let everybody know. So far it has played just as I previously wrote about. I sense UK Department of Health officials have Synairgen on their radar and are just as keen to know of the home trial results as the rest of us. What I absolutely do know is that holding Synairgen is a really solid investment to hold. Its a generic anti-viral medication for respiratory disease. That is a really useful place to have part of your portfolio at this time is my honest opinion. Its part of mine and is not going anywhere. Regards Tony

I appreciate the time and generosity of everybody's contributions and genuinely grateful for the time they all freely gave ( A sign of real intelligence). I ticked a few recommends like other people. I discussed with my wife who wants to open a share ISA and we are now likely to acquire HZM in that part of our portfolio. It will go with her Pensana shares as my other half fully believes in the reset agenda. That iSA pot is a long term hold. regards Tony PS you probably raised other interested investors in the coming weeks as well as we head up to ISA deadlines and is what makes this a good investor chat board.

A significant number of nickel miners, especially in Australia, are gearing up to accelerate nickel production later this year. For that reason I decided to sell out with a profit from Horizonte. Although the demand side is increasing an analysis of supply side also needs to be viewed and its timing as it is a risk burden for HZM. I wish everybody invested here all the best. I am not expert enough to know how major the building up of production elsewhere will have on the price of nickel.

A lot of the news from last year is known and the company went to a lot of effort to improve operations and deliver cost efficiencies. They have also explained the past issues and where and why things happened in the way they did. The situation with the Kenya asset is possibly influenced by green grants to be issued later in 2021. So will the Kenyans get there act together in managing regional interests being second to the National interest. Will they go for a green project that provides energy from solar and wind to actually power domestic and some industrial use like pumping out oil. Can they transport oil using hydrogen powered vehicles and does it work out being cost effective after a grant front loading the cost. If it doesn't then the Kenya asset may get retired with the licence as to costly to exploit. The alternative is extending those licences and agree for a fourth company to take it over and perhaps Tullow bows out with a modest fee on the balance sheet.

As for the value to the Ghana field it is probably $2.6B after tax and Non Ghana fields and the Guyana and Suriname blocks around $300M. The company has another $75M FID from Uganda. $675M after debt gives us 35p share price. This value gives nothing on the Kenya asset if it is one.

The news that will change things will be a debt rollover that works out cost effective and allows any positive news down stream to impact on company value. A higher hedge price like $55 a barrel with higher collar will be a strong realised positive. The fact that Ghana drills can be undertaken without having to raise more debt is hugely positive (So that $350M possibly being earned is all reinvested in Ghana well production). The company is able to forecast that production increases higher in 2022 and it will be able to pay off more RBL debt and can do a Guyana drill if oil remains at $55 or more a barrel. The company can also give more info on gas off take on the Ghana fields and how this can support higher future production. The impact of all this is a vision of some growth. 2P levels have a chance of improving and if Jubilee and TEN reserves increase by 75M barrels during 2021-2022 the company regains back a lost two years of profit. It then allows Tullow to be valued higher as debt comes off enterprise value and more of the EV is factored into the share price.

The negative is if the company does not provide information and is vague. If we get a follow up presentation from Rahul and Les and they communicate very clearly the share price does well. Its in their hands on what direction we go. What we do know is that the market is certainly poised to react.

Tony

Tullow bounced off a long standing support line today and should hold upper 32p range for the weekend. The chart is lined up for news. Impossible to predict market reaction, but it is set up in a triangle in the chart for a move in either direction as resistance and support lines converge.

Moving along an elevated bull trend. The uptrend movement is up a penny a day (156-176 current range with support and resistance moving in parallel). It has a lot of movement in the range to disguise the direction. It suggests a nod is being given if recruitment and other issues are going to plan. End of February the range is 180-200p if it continues on the same pathway.

To 1p a day. Support line is at 91p and climbing a penny day as from yesterday. New resistance line to be found after BFS when published.

Makes the company presentation next week far more interesting. The company has so much resources it has a real chance of making the FTSE 250 by 2024.

To Chippy

Another one to watch is Pensana which has just closed a chart gap. It has a bank feasibility report due out next Friday and I suspect it may rise by 30-40%. AAZ I mentioned yesterday is up 20% today. Regards Tony

My other half is in as I wanted to protect my 9 bagger result as its the best I ever had.

At 94p. The gap to 91p looks as if it has now closed. I mentioned that if it touched 91p on the sell its likely to hit 142p next week if the BFS gets published. The share has performed perfectly to the chart fit thus far.

If 1/10th of the revenue is taken in the ground figures for NAV purposes than the share price should be 360p at least. Once into mining and generating income the share price becomes 4x greater or around 1480p. Makes this a 10 bagger.

Hope you did not sell your AAZ shares!

This could be a slow steady rise all day. It would be crazy to sell the stock. Once the Russian miner shares the mining plan with AAZ and confirms the resource even on the Russian standards, the enterprise value goes nuts here and heads up to 260p and that is for starters. AAZ could well end up being a FTSE 250 company 3 years down the road and be as cash rich as Centamin. On top of that the holder gets a lovely divi. God knows how high it would go if we got a rally in gold. My valuations are below $1700 gold.