Member Info for Tornadotony

If the vaccine stops transmission that is massive news. Another item on the radar that perhaps dwarfs everything else. We just need more info to support that kind of news.

Maybe its finding a bottom.

Jointhedots a thanks from me for sharing your views and some of your research and I suspect a lot of other readers as well. (Tick in the recommend box).

Elsewhere, Chinese crude stocks have also fallen to their lowest in a year, Bloomberg reported.

I am surprised by the above but it dents my comment on the oil price caused by China New Year. Unless of course Bloomberg have got it wrong.

Sageman

I have a long position on Tullow. The 24p order will expire was joining the same test others were doing at sells for a pound or whatever the other day. We shall see what happens mid February on oil. If India decide to buy lots of oil it may prop up the absence of China in the market which is a more reasonable response to my earlier comment. However, with so many countries in lockdowns I would not be surprised with a temporary pull back on oil price. Still its a cautionary comment to just bear in mind and some of the other readers might thought it useful to have on their radar. The fact that the USD is getting stronger might have its own effect. Tullow bonds continue to drop yesterday is another radar point to know of and I do not know why its doing it if things are going well with RBL.

Corrected

Below Bollinger band. Stochastics and RSI lowest since LSE listing. Selling is becoming exhausted. They have squeezed the life out of the stock.

Below Bollinger band. Stochastics and RSI lowest since LSE listing and RSI. Selling is becoming exhausted. They have squeezed the life out of the stock.

Do bear in mind that peak oil deliveries finish this week or early next week as China forward buys for its New Year (out goes rat and in comes Ox). China will be filled to the gunwales and is then off market for the week and they are the biggest buyer. The next few days is the best it will get for oil price and then its most likely to retreat for a couple of weeks. Tullow is just following oil price to some extent. All my own opinion of course.

At 148p. Equivalent to a day's volume of stock. Big player somewhere who is now a lighter weight. Of course somebody else bought it.

It just needs to hold this area for one week and the confirmed bottom is in place. Company price at this level becomes a takeover target for a company like BP. 3 support lines exist in the 70's as well. Licence mining rights alone in Angola cover the SP value.

As mentioned on many occasions. Pensana has a Notional Asset Value and although requires a bank feasibility study, the share responded on the August exploration results and gave a NAV price of 46p up from 21p. Later on this was revised to say 60p as China announced it was limiting exports of rare earths. Later on The Coola exploration results were briefly given and gave strong inferred results for significant quantities of additional rare earth metals and it is likely that the share is now at a price matching in the ground minimal values at Inferred and Indicated grades. The company also owns valuable production intellectual property that probably advances its value further and probably excludes price increases in rare earths since October..

Two pipeline leaks, the first in Libya costing 60,000 barrels or so a day and another in Nigeria hitting another 50,000 a day. Both happened late in January denting the expected OPEC increased production. Where it goes from here may depend a lot on USA and how bad their lockdowns become and what happens to their currency value.

Take a look at the day chart between 12/10/20 to 2/11/20 and then look at the shape of the graph with 4/1/20 up to now. Note how similar they look with a 33.33% drop from the recent peak. Note how the October drop finished with the August peak drop in 2020 and look where we are now against the October peak drop.

So what I have done. I have re-entered and bought what could be a bottom in the price for Pensana. The past does not guarantee the future but sometimes rhymes. My wife sold her Pensana at 86p for an engineered loss to avoid capital gains tax as she used up all her allowance and no previous year of tax loss to use up. Instead I have the stock and bought at
79.X p. I expect news later in February. If it is a placing its not the end of the world. Sometimes having more equity to have cash and actually get on with the mine development is not a bad thing. We need the CEO and Chairman to promise that its spent wisely if that is where they go and they also buy into any placing and show commitment and lead from the front if that is what they do. I suspect Pensana to make the grade towards FTSE 250 in a few years time. All the best Tony

https://www.bourse.lu/security/US899415AE32/266318

Why are they going down?

A board like this is here to share observations and opinions and that is all it is and not some kind of guru centre for financial advice. If anybody thinks that by providing inputs that may somehow confer them a magical status of preying on the naivety of others they are for the most part quite sadly mistaken. Whether its charts, bots or algos or whether its shared knowledge about the market or company fundamentals, none guarantees any kind of outcome as none of us is blessed with an occasional gift to see future events. It does not stop any of us sharing what we think we know or what we observe and if we do so to help ourselves and others in their endeavours than we have met the definition of intelligence. Of course some people can choose to be judgemental or even countenance their own degree of paranoia through analysis of the motivations of others. However, its best to be kind and understanding where possible and remember that lockdowns and stress can amplify such feelings. I want to wish all AAZ investors happiness, the best of health which is our true wealth and long term aspirations of success on whatever you as readers choose it to be. All the best Tony

Fair enough that you are expecting any movement to take time. Any comment from me was just an observation on the morning result to date. I have left a book order on at 24.7p for the week in any case. If I was a shorter I would want to dodge a book load of buys, but I am no expert on that side of things.

aprogerson

We are more or less in agreement. AAZ gets very interesting in August along with many other gold miners imop.

Tony

Jointhe dots

My view before the proactive presentation was really bullish. After listening to all the things they have to do which incidentally must also include a new tailings dam, I realise that they have quite a lot of work to sort out after the Gedabek tunnel extension work is done. I also believed that a higher low is to play out in the weekly chart. The last weekly low was around 128p so my view is that the next higher low, which incidentally is a normal chart pattern on a bullish trend is around the 132p mark. If I am right then it is handy that folks do have some buying power left in the tank. Its certainly my intention to be in that position. I did sell some shares on a very overweight AAZ holding at 172p and its the same move I did on Shanta. 75% of my portfolio is gold miners after reducing my entire equity portfolio by 50% into cash. I have concerns of a market wide sell off event so not everything is down to the company. All the best Tony

Flood with small buy orders between 23- 25p. Shorters then face going into a real buyer response.

So the move many of you opted to do was neutralised. I am not sure if the strategy had any impact at all. Tullow has just followed the oil price moves all morning.

The weekly chart has a range from 130p to 161p. Its simply trading within the range. If it goes to 130's expect strong buying and if 160's it will find sellers. It will take to August for the range to contract enough to deliver the next move up. AAZ is a very slow moving share. It has a lot to do with the pace of future developments at AAZ. They need to agree plans they have in mind with Azerbaijan Government and once this has been clarified and what the Capex schedule is and production profile will look like over a 3 year time scale then a major re-rate should then fall into place. I think this will take 7 months to slot into place. The key is to have some cash on a pull back and possibly to a modest extent play the chart technicals.