Member Info for Tornadotony

Correction on my previous is that it is bond yield that increases.

Thanks for correcting to yield regarding bonds that is what I meant.

Hi Mact4

What everyone needs to be aware of is the red flag of bitcoin going parabolic. It has followed a near parabolic increase in Tesla and a few other USA stocks. Bloomberg analysts this morning were talking of $100,000 bitcoin and breaks even higher. At some point a lot of people will want to get out of that trade and the crash will transfer a lot of wealth. At the same time we have oil up $5 in a week and moving up a $1 a day. Commodities by and large are moving up as well and inflationary worries are building. This is increasing bond prices. As interest rates go up equities in USA go down as USD begins to spike upwards and the commodities then move in reverse. This macro-event may well crash stock markets or force a major correction. It is therefore sensible to have some cash ready on any major pull back. I agree that such an event could well support your pattern. However we do not know if central bankers can manage the situation satisfactory and avoid this sell off event. If issues correct, like they did for silver the other day, then the pull back that you envisaged is less likely. Tony

Antharry the only thing I am saying is that we are heading for a big shift in the coming days with a lot of moving parts. We can not be certain how this will play out. If we could we would all be rich very quickly.

What we do know is the technical chart has major support established at 25p for Tullow. The share is arriving at a confluence of a higher support line and a resistance line. This all adds to the climax of what will Tullow do next. A few people here on this board are getting agitated if anyone points out that when these points collide there is uncertainty which way it breaks. If oil continues to rise because of bitcoin going to the moon or whatever and oil supply constraints continue than the move is upwards. If the supply eases and price retreats than the break may see a bounce off solid support again. In the back ground to all of this, the prospect of uncontrolled inflation is rising bond prices. As those bond prices rise literally everything is at risk of tanking no matter what equity shares are being held. This is becoming potentially a very dangerous February out there but nobody knows for sure. It may well be other measures come in an inflationary pressures ease and oil stocks bounce to the upside as they all hedged loads at good oil prices despite oil prices retreating but that may feed through later as hedging details appear in a future RNS. The oil prices could ease back and then move up again later in the year. If oil goes to $70-$80 a barrel there is an inflationary shock when the global is impacted by record increases in unemployment. It also nullifies the impact of stimulus packages. It may cause a parabolic move and crash on oil stocks, but that again is unhelpful in the longer term. At any rate being alert to possibilities is giving opinions of interesting times ahead.

Hi Andy

The influenza vaccine is regularly upgraded to keep efficacy above 50%. The same needs to happen with Covid-19 vaccines. Without the vaccines hospitals are overrun with patients and other services are depleted and other healthcare pathways for non-infected patients with other illness have adverse outcomes. At 50% efficacy levels the NHS can just about cope with winter stress levels and the casualty rate in patients deaths is around 10,000 annually. With Covid-19 the vaccines do give an efficacy result that is better than influenza and the patient workloads arriving do not overrun the system and mortality is a lot lower. The value of therapies is that we may be able to keep more people out of intensive care, allow operating theatres to function normally and treat many infected patients in their own homes without hospital admission at all. Without vaccines the case load is to great and they will need adjusting against new mutations annually and boosters given to the over 50's and others likely to need them should allow society to operate very near to the previous normal. Tony

I do own Tullow shares. I have a long position. I have sold some Tullow shares as well at a loss. However I have made significant gains elsewhere and will end this year overall with a great deal of profits and by luck my strategy has came off. I want a great result for Tullow. My opinion matches a lot of views expressed on Bloomberg and other sources. Lets see if the taps stay off on oil supply. It will be very interesting if they do. It is still a binary event as it will be Governments who decide to turn taps on or to keep them off.

Getting interesting. I still believe oil peaks this side of Chinese New Year on Friday and then goes down afterwards, but happy to be proven wrong. What makes it interesting is that Tullow can hedge at a very good price for 2022. It allows a different set of metrics to come into play in an aggressive redevelopment of Jubilee field. Its a highly binary event with Tullow. It either rockets way beyond 40p to more likely 80p if oil breaks a lot higher. Just imagine if Tullow hedged 100% at $70 for 2022. They would clear $400M profit. The flip side is that all and sundry turn on the oil supply taps and crush the price back to $50 a barrel. In that scenario life is more difficult for Tullow oil and its share price. A case of does one feel lucky.

Not sure if anyone reported it but I noticed Ninety One Anglo South Africa company has 1.23M shares in Synairgen. They started buying in December. I wonder if other fund managers are starting to buy a position.
https://ninetyone.com/united-kingdom

Docdaneeka

I stand corrected. However any adverse drug reaction (ADR) would become a known event rather quickly and as time progresses one hopes recruitment is on-going and ADRs are not happening and hopefully that comment puts what I was trying to say in another way.

Tony

The trading range at present is 174p-184p close price approximately.

I do have to give everyone a cautionary warning as this follows price action on the gold price. It is possible for a market wide sell off to occur at some point. The timing is uncertain but it could be late next week or in a few months time. The sell off can be explosive if it occurs. I am defensively set up for such an event. It may not be the best position for gaining profit. Anything that is not likely to recover in a major sell off is worth considering to remove from a portfolio. There is a desire for genuine growth stocks that are likely to generate improved margins. Its a good time to be a stock picker than sitting on ETFs imop.

The trading range at present is 174p-184p close price approximately.

I do have to give everyone a cautionary warning as this follows price action on the gold price. It is possible for a market wide sell off to occur at some point. The timing is uncertain but it could be late next week or in a few months time. The sell off can be explosive if it occurs. I am defensively set up for such an event. It may not be the best position for gaining profit. Anything that is not likely to recover in a major sell off is worth considering to remove from a portfolio. There is a desire for genuine growth stocks that are likely to generate improved margins. Its a good time to be a stock picker than sitting on ETFs imop.

The chart is hinting that the trial so far is going to plan. Its doing what I thought it may do if things were going well behind the scenes. The odd down day should not put anybody off as it goes back closer to a rising support line and bounces a little higher than the next day. Its a slow melt up.

The support line for higher low share price for Shanta is between 14.75p to 14.95p on the buy side if we slide to 1742 gold area.

Its fantastic. Australian Pensana share presents are very welcome. Especially when they begin to dive under notional added value levels. Its then a truly wonderful generous gift.

BTB

$1742 on gold makes sense on the gold chart. There was a chance $1800 was to be the bottom this Friday and the rally started late next week. Fortunately I have not defended any positions of late and can add at lower prices.

They just hammered the daylights out of gold. I was anticipating the higher low being set next week. Now on the cards. Just hope it goes back up afterwards.

Deeper pullback than I expected. Good job its a long term hold. Looks as if I will be averaging down and getting overweight on this share yet again.

Gold eagle analysts say we have a rough end to this week. The good news is that the gold price retreat eventually bottoms out and we may finally get a tail wind later in the month. Yesterday's bounce does slow where AAZ may bottom out in all of this. I still think new investors will get a shot at 138p-140p buy side. If it goes that way it is working out a new low pattern. Eventually the stock will have the strength to break the 170's. Its just going to take time to do it with future RNS news on progress. Still have a divi to bank this month.

We shall see if this now holds above 79p for a week and confirm the bottom is in. If it does it will give the fill your boots run for the stock price and it edges slowly up from here in recovery mode. Anybody who missed earlier Pensana chances to get in now have their chance at a good investment price.