Member Info for Tornadotony

https://www.bourse.lu/security/US899415AE32/266318

All ready for RBL completion next week.

GB46

Intelligent enough to deliver 26% return for 2019/20 and a 14% for 2020/21 (Completed investments).

Tony

I am holding enough cash in the portfolio to easily double up on all the gold mining stocks I hold. Centamin is already approaching 2016 prices. If they make it 2014 prices it would be a quadruple up and I will be laughing all the way to the bank 12 months later.

Yes we are back above support (177p). Phew.

1. Significant conversion of resources into reserves. This may cost $40M however the conversion value of 750,000 ounces at $70 is $52.5M.
2. The company earnings will be vastly improved with no hedging over 2020 and this would be 25% more income at $1750 gold price over 2020.
3. The company costs are at the lower end for the sector and will pay for 50% of the development of a new mine and allow $15M possible headroom for dividends. If the dividend was 0.5p it would be 3% yield on the placing price of 16.5p.
4. The company has a number of additional Tanzania sites that may deliver new resources. These may well add £7M additional value at $30 per ounce of resource discovered.
5. The company has the potential of 25% production growth after 2024 with a new mine on stream in 2023.

1. 21.5p of share price is cash in the bank.
2. At average gold price of $1750 for 2021, Centamin earns £62M.
3. The company can cover a divi payment that yields higher than bond rates.
4. The company is on a growth path of 20% in coming years.
5. The PE rate low end at 18 which equates to 106p.
6. The company gold prices sales for the initial six weeks of 2021 were well above $1750 per ounce.
7. The company could sell assets outside Egypt for cash if they wish to do so.
8. A new Egyptian mining permit may soon be granted that could offer a prospect near Sukari.
9. It is possible for a larger gold miner to buy Centamin in a takeover bid.

Hope its temporary. We shall see later today.

I am not sure about you guys, but my confidence of any USA government data published and collected during a major weather event is near to zero. They could have thrown anything out there for a major data revision later.

Possible false breakdown in the whole of the market as the initial reactions on USA job data ignore the significant possibility that the government data sets are wrong as a lot of people were unable to get into work because of appalling weather over there. Once the data gets questioned on how massively it might get revised the market may reverse the negative move. I might be wrong but I have seen this so many times before.

Responding negatively in USA to jobs data. However, with the bad weather government stats are usually wrong by a huge margin and need significant revisions later. Today is an extremely tricky day as a lot of shares get pushed onto their final support lines. It could be a false breakdown. However, on another day it could be for real. Currently sitting on my hands.

Barry if the support line breaks its back to 160-163p area and the bull trend line from 9 December is then lost. It can happen but its the first real change of trend in 80 days.

Interesting. In theory should bounce higher.

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/should-gold-bulls-worry-about-market-crash

Today is one of those days. China markets open tomorrow.

50,000 at 14.985. Can certainly buy more a lot more if its a mistake.

Just managing to hold support around 14.7p. Gold on the fib support line. They either hold or they don't. If Gold RSI was lower I would be confident to buy into Shanta but its not low enough.

Now it gets ugly. Let the knife land.

In the old days they trainer would have a red hot favourite run after hares all afternoon in the field and then feed them with hearty meal. At the racetrack the red hot favourite would come last. Runners would place bets for the trainers on the dog they wanted to win so the game was to follow with binoculars on the runners and to see where bookie odds on the track had changed and then race to get your bet on the tote.

The same thing has happened here. The 900% rise bitcoin parabolic dog with massive volatility has been set up as a banker to win the race along with the USA SP500 or Tesla as reverse forecast win out in traps 1 and 2. Now everybody and their pet dog at the track and every betting shop going is on it which is probably 1/6 on. Of course the Shanta goldminer sprinter in trap 6 is now getting 40 to 1 odds and rumours of it having a groin strain (fake news on facebook) means nobody wants to touch it with a barge pole.

I have lots of buying power. I am just holding off to see how low they want to take it. At some point I will be tempted and let you know at what price I was seduced.

A break at 14.7p creates a falling knife scenario. I can not believe this is happening yet again.