Member Info for Tornadotony

As far as I am concerned getting shares on 140's handle is a Christmas present. There is further support at 140p and 137p.

Tony

At 163 and 158. Final support line at 149.

Oakleaf-- The stock may fall because an institution holder is selling part of their holding and wants to buy it back at a lower price. They want what they buy back to gain profit in the recovery rally. They thrive on volatility.

Yebola

Do not panic. The reality is that 80% of all scientific news reported by the press is usually on poor low grade research. Papers that have no controls, no measurement standards and the like. Today we have an example where it is bad to be in Covid-19 therapeutics. Give it 3 days and some eloquent scientist will point out the obvious failings and sentiment changes. In the meantime the lesson for many is to always have some cash in any trading account so that you can buy at what looks like a really good price and do not feel guilty in doing the occasional top slice at much higher prices so that you have replenished with some cash when news like today happens. Tony

I will confirm when I buy on here. Trying to identify a bottom is a fools errand and its a best probable guess using oversold indicators.

Stochastics on the daily have hit zero. The longest it would probably stay near that level is two trading sessions after today. The RSI daily is around 50 and the 5 hourly is reading 40. I would expect this to keep dropping. The oversold market is at 30 for the RSI and so the selling approaches exhaustion.

With an hour to go we have lost the support channel and trending downwards. This may well give us a great opportunity to get cheap synairgen shares. Long term holders have nothing to fear. The traders on here will be drooling to have second dippings and drive the stock back up again. Its a case of how much discount is going on the offer. The traders probably would be happy to see no ramping until they have all jumped in. On a chart perspective its very difficult to see where and when a new down channel may change so the RSI data may be useful along with slow stochs hitting low numbers. So keep some cash handy if it reaches a point where it is an average down buy or at least a rebuy of higher sold and joining the bounce back up.

BTB the previous low was 13.75p so I am not sure we will get a lower low in the chart. So far I have only bought half of what I sold above 18p. I will get the other half if things get more daft although it leave me in the same overweight position I was in before. It certainly won't be down this low for to long. I never thought I would get second dippings at these prices.

Taking $100 for every reserve ounce in production and $30 for each resource ounce and lets say $20M in the bank from 2020 fund raise, I can confirm the share is trading below its enterprise value (EV). This equates all plant and equipment at $ zero, all intangibles at zero and is still $20M below EV. They are giving the shares away at discount.

Probably get a TR1.

Another average down.

It was fully expected that vaccinating the population (that is not in a lockdown state) would achieve at least 75-85% efficacy rates. The vast majority of whom may experience mild or no symptoms of infection. For those having first dose vaccinations and told to take precautions until they receive the second dose and the community is in a lockdown state with the R rate falling would also have a drop in going to hospital and so the claims associated made by AstraZeneca and Pfizer are not unexpected at all. Data on transmission and the duration of immunity in the elderly that are vaccinated has limited supporting evidence and data. It is most likely that those who receive influenza jabs and still get influenza in the winter months would be of a similar occurrence to those vaccinated against Covid-19 yet may well succomb later on. The overall numbers may be at manageable levels for the NHS to just about cope. However, therapies are needed for this group and for long Covid-19 sufferers and for any gaps in vaccine cover for those affected by mutated versions which the vaccine is less effective.

All of the above is known by proper investors here, but is the reason why support may have been lost on the share today. Again it is ignorance that may enable a discount buying opportunity and I wish you all the best in exploiting the chance that is provided. If they price low 140's I will be backing up the truck to load up.

Goldman Sachs now expects $75 oil in Q3. Just Imagine a $68 a barrel hedge on 2022 with increased Jubilee production.
The shares I hold are a sensible percentage of the entire portfolio from a serious overweight back in September. I have restructured so I can forget about Tullow on a day to day basis. The key with any share for those with more limited resources is not to massively overweight position on one equity, the all eggs in one basket. Adverse as well as good events can happen with any company in a portfolio. We do not always know what we do not know and hence why its sensible to spread sectors and balance holdings.

All bets are off on any news forecast if support line goes and the SP follow a a new resistance channel downwards. It may of course rebound intraday as it did last week.

The descending resistance line from 259p hits the rising support line from 78p that began on 9 December at 201p arriving on March 8th or 9th day chart. The weekly chart has the closure possibly extended between 9-16th March. If the charts are giving us a hint it suggests a major RNS between 8th to 16th March.

Yes a mistake on my 2C calculations.

Capital Markets Day gave a total Tullow value of 486M 2P excluding Ghana and Kenya and Guyana.

I still have EQ amounting to 5.8% of the total value of Tullow. $110M +141M savings= $251M (Tullow total value is $4.327B minus $2.4B debt= $1.927 minus leasing costs etc= $827M = 42p share price as the current fair value with Guyana and Kenya value to add on. ) Overall, my way of doing it says they did alright on the entirety of the deal.

Hi Slift

In the presentations on the Tullow website they give production cost at $20 a barrel for EG and a further $5 is charged for depreciation. Lets say out of the $20 a Capex bill of $7.30 is within that cost although I am not 100% sure it is. There is another charge that may not be included and that is the income taxes paid to EG. The payment to Government gave a charge of $39M which was $23 a barrel but lets say the oil sold that year was at $64. This still gives $41 a barrel minus costs at $25 barrel and leaves $16 for Tullow and this gives true profit at $26.32M a year. The sale of EG assets is not attracting a tax bill. The Gabon asset gives $75M and EG gives $105M. So the EG asset sale recovers 4 years of production cost. Then Decommissioning cost is debt not on the balance sheet in later years and that takes us at least 7 years down the road and possibly longer.

Another way to value if it was based in North America is 14M at 2P is sold and is worth $140M and 22M 3P is $110M and 26M 2C is worth $2.6M = $252.6M (However decommissioning costs has to come off that figure).
Overall the best sale they could of got was around $20M more if located in USA or Canada, however this is in Africa.

1. The company would be liable for contributions on decommissioning costs and they are not if the sale proceeds.
2. The ability to reduce debt near term aids a reduced interest rate on any new bond on discussion or at least keeping it to 7%.
3. The profit per barrel is far less than the Ghana fields. So having more funds for Jubilee offers a more profitable return than the income from non-managed fields.
4. The company is more likely to improve its debt rating for 2022.
5. It may strengthen its negotiating position on selling other assets like a farm down in Kenya.
6. It may strengthen any positive developments arising from the Suriname drill if they are lucky with the exploration.
7. It may allow them resources to develop assets near the TEN field which they are planning to do.
8. The production profit at $57 a barrel is around $22 net. This is $40M a year but has a capex bill of $8-M$16M a year and decommission costs to pay. The true net profit is more like an average of $25M. The company may gain year 6 or 7 after proposed sale by keeping the asset however this money is received over a long period of time where as $140M is being front loaded with the deal. If long term oil was $67 a barrel then the buyer will have a better deal. Selling or keeping the asset is very much on how the long term price of oil may go. I feel selling the asset possibly gives Rahul more focus on what he wants the company to do in Ghana with his very lean management team.

Android

My understanding was that after the $500M from Uganda sale was paid off to RBL bringing net debt to $2.4B end of 2020 and the RBL facility would be extended by $300M in 2021 to cover the $300M notes due in June 2021. The $75M FID from Uganda expected in 2021 was also to pay down RBL debt by that amount. The RBL also have the prospect of another $140M of in-bound asset sales to partly off set debts. The key discussion now is whether they are accepting a revaluation of the Ghana producing assets. An extra two years of production life is like having $400M of production income. It may therefore be possible that another $200M of asset sales and RBL agreeing to advance $400M extra credit facility would cover the 2022 bond. The company may then open an entirely new bond for $400M with a 2027 closing date and repay the temporary monies with the RBL as production increases again while also giving the company time to structure the new bond. It will be interesting to see if I am right on how I think it gets organised.