Member Info for Tornadotony

5 hourly RSI on 18. I can not get over how platinum is also falling and that is a huge red flag for just about everything in the equity market.

I have closed my Tullow position. Planning to quit the equity game later in the year. So far I am 67% off market overall. Closing out one of my best year's results despite not making the best decisions on Tullow. I am running with just a handful of investments and have target exits on all those. Its a cheerio from me on this board and all the best with all your investments.

I should also add it trades just over in the ground value with no plant, cash in bank and a forward quarter of earnings. All other assets are valued at nothing.

The backward PE rate at 14p is 5 times earnings for 2020. Forward a mere 3.75 at $1700 gold price. Nearly completed two months averaging $100 more. So the average gold price has to be less than $1681 from 1 March for that 3.5 PE rate. Only an African precious metal miner gets these incredibly low PE ratings of say 8. AAZ gets a rating of 10 PE and Centamin 18 PE. Average USA SP 500 company on a forward PE of 43. Shanta a truly unloved equity investment. I am not sure what the company can do except maintain presentations.

Well you get to take the mickey on what you reply to.

The disappointment this afternoon has left the stock retreating in the down channel on 5 Hourly chart. Now 6p may not seem a lot for many fundamental investors, but the chart data is simply not looking brilliant tonight. Synairgen has a track record of running both rising channels and falling channels at 2 to 3 weeks at a time. Today was a chance to flip trend quickly, but instead it reinforced the chances of a stock price pullback by maintaining the down channel. So the share price may fall for several days. The potential good news is that 152p may act as support and form a double bottom with yesterday and the drift down is slow and relatively shallow. Of course there is no guarantee for that to happen, but we have the rather impregnable support at 118p that goes back to the July manic Monday on the chart.

Some of you may ask why on earth should Synairgen now be a downtrend. The reasons for this do vary. For example a predator company might want to put in low offers in a takeover bid so they short the pants off the stock through multiple sources that do not reveal the stock is under a short attack. It could be that as we approach trial results or end dates that existing holders take some shares off the table to get the shares back at a lower price and rally higher and do a repeat cycles so their cash risk is lowered by the time results come in (they are responding to 30% failure risk). In essence positions can get managed for a variety of reasons and the direction based on fundamentals does not always flow in the anticipated direction. Some of you will call it a tree shake or simply a test of your faith and resolve when a seller is trying to dissuade you not to keep your position. Others on here will see it as a trading opportunity and may help the downtrend by selling into it with the intention of re-entering if they see a break out of the current channel as the best use of limited cash resource. I therefore suspect volatility is possibly coming and its the nature of the beast.

There is of course nothing guaranteed by chart examination, but if it happens be ready with your strategy of what you may choose to do even if its switching off visits to look at the share price. Tony

jointhedots

If you look on gold bullion websites like bullion by post loads of the stock is listed as not available. For platinum absolutely nothing at all is available on bars. There is a different reality on the paper markets to the valuation for those trying to acquire physical precious metals and I just wonder long this situation can go on. If you have really cheap prices and nobody can get what they want, it smacks of communism. Tony

Newbie rookie

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/technical-analysis/

Brief intro. only. I do not use candlestick patterns at all as they are very unreliable. Momentum indicators and Fibonacci retracements is what a lot of traders use. (Especially if they want to get out of a position.) Tony

https://www.chartguys.com/technical-analysis/

To JSP123 and others who want to learn about charts, this site has regular analysis on particular commodities and stocks and following them a few weeks you will pick up a lot of knowledge. Understanding when traders go in and out tells us where the price may go and what they are looking for.

As for Synairgen we are in the level score area where the draw keeps us out of the down channel relegation zone if I put it in those football terms. As we pass 183p we took the lead and made certain the breakout is not false, but the real confirmation is where we close this evening with perhaps some follow through tomorrow.

Tony

Meelie

This is a hypothesis. If the breakout from 174p happens and we manage a close at 188p a new support line from 2nd January is established. The timing of an RNS then changes to somewhere between 19-26th March is just a hint from the charts. Tony
Tony

Meelie

What a lot of traders know is when a share breaks out a downward channel it flags a breakout signal. We either get confirmation follow through and the share rapidly moves upwards from 174p or we get a false breakout and it collapses back down. Its now moving upwards to test the upper range of the down channel. This current move plays out until 1pm. If it stays static on 174p in the afternoon it escapes slowly from the downward channel as a function of time and not increased share price.

174p gets Synairgen out of that down channel on to a new pathway.

All the previous chart patterns from 9 December are history and the current one is still a down channel on the 5 hourly chart. Synairgen has got an uphill fight to start another rising support line. If it falls back again it will make yesterday afternoon's late rally as a dead cat bounce. It has to fight its way back into the high 170's to start breaking out of the down channel. We should know stay of play by 1pm.

No swiss gold bars and nothing in platinum at all. The real physical market is being massively suppressed.

My 149p order was taken off but it could not have caused it to go up, unless umpteen other people decided that it was not going to be needed as well. The order was not to manipulate, but to buttress the support line. If the seller was a shorter they would want to avoid lots of buy orders.

A quick comment that getting a vaccine is not always straight forward like IT and supply problems and people being unsure what they are supposed to do. They are glossing over long delays in parts of the country. A number of invites get cancelled but they probably still list them as still invited in their system.

Blessed 22
Low 140's are possible, but we can only be sure if the 15 minute down channel can be maintained.
Tony

Down channel set up is around 1.25p for the last two hours. Exhaustion by the seller does appear to be high 140's. Slow Stochastics still on zero.

Another 10% or so was just dropped out from the seller and we touched 152p. RSI dropped to 41 territory on the daily and 5 hourly is at 27. The times I have seen shares on 5 hourly below 18 RSI is like finding a bird with teeth.

I suspect we may stay put at 154/158 for a few hours to the USA open. In the meantime RSI is still falling. We should get a better picture of how much the seller has to push the price down. Time being flat works in our favour as the RSI continues to fall and stochs stay on zero.

RSI on daily is now at 42.