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Now at a forward PE of just 6. Will be a struggle to find lower PE rates anywhere.

Bollinger band has tightened to 161 to 180. I note that a similar pattern arose in late June to July last year with the Bollinger. Modest money flow into the stock has been positive since 11 March. Pennant closes Tuesday. I should stress that all it takes is a TR-1 to disrupt things and give some volatility it does not infer as Ghia mentions home trial news that is due in Q2.

Gold bottoms before the 10 year USA Treasury Bond peaks is what has happened in the past. What we do not know is whether that peak is 2% or 2.25% on Treasuries and was 1.71% this morning. That difference on projected peak is say 4 weeks plus apart in time. I suspect $1680 gold is the bottom but we can not rule out a retest in the next 4 to 6 weeks. Quite usually we get a June seasonal low in gold but that may come early this year like end of April or early May. A case of holding on for H2. We did not get a late winter rally and so far precious little for early spring.

https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield

Gino its all about the USA 10 year Treasury bond. As the rates go higher now at 1.65% (was 1.2% in January), gold goes down. Of course a decline in gold leads to gold miners pulling back. The miners lead the move most times and gold follows. They are usually running ahead to USA Treasuries by a month or two. The USA Treasury rate above 2.25% will cause major problems in repaying principle debt. The current rate of progression has Treasuries hitting a maximum in 6 weeks before it blows up all the equity markets globally, not just USA. Everyone expects the FED to step in and save the day although they may say tonight they won't do it. So its unlikely the FED will in truth allow markets to self destruct on rising interest rates when we are all in a pandemic still.

Interest rates in 2013 could hit 4% on 10 year Treasuries however the USA debt to GDP ratio was under 80%. The GDP debt ratio for USA is now above 120%. Hence why 2.25% is a figure where the USA finds it difficult to pay down its debts as the annual level of interest on $30 Trillion debt becomes a major percentage of annual government expenditure. At 4.5% 10yr Treasury rate half of all tax monies raised goes on debt interest and that would break the USA economy and lead to potential default events. Hope the above helps. Tony

Puff of smoke from the volcano

Its the weekly chart that has a problem which clears in May.

The on-going pennant formation with rising support from 11 January coincides with a declining resistance line from 15 February early next week possibly Monday and latest on Tuesday. A move out of the pennant could happen earlier. The only thing I can say is that its like a tightly coiled spring being compressed.

http://www.shantagold.com/_resources/Exploration%20Drilling%20Update%20Presentation.pdf

Better visibility of drill results on a map. This is a screaming buy and massively undervalued company. Hold your shares in a draw for 200% plus gains here. It may be 2023 or 2024 but worth the wait. Tony

Then why are bank shares and companies like Jubilee holdings going up on the Tanzania stock exchange .

https://dse.co.tz/profile-company/312

Hi Kenj

We have raised this issue before and as you know the Tanzanian Government owes Shanta $27M in overpaid tax on VAT. In 2020 the overall tax burden on Shanta was 55% and perhaps some of this was to the Kenya Government as well. In 2019 the the overall tax rate paid to the Tanzanian Government was 45%.

If they were to tax 45%, not repay VAT and take a 16% stake in the company plus 7% in all the other charges it would not be worthwhile continuing to do business in Tanzania. No country in the world operates on that basis. However some do have a free carry and royalties but they do not charge corporation tax on the company as its double taxation. In the case of Centamin its a 50/50 split. In the case of AAZ its 75/25% split and some corporation tax and they still end up at 50.50 split. Shanta was already at 50/50 with no free carry but a high rate of tax plus all the Royalty costs. It is completely unviable to tax at 70% rates. Furthermore all the mining companies pay a bit more tax if the gold price goes very high and governments earn a little bit more. Furthermore if the Tanzania Government wanted a free carry on a £145M company that will cost £23.2M. The company owes $27M in VAT which is £19.6M. So paying the company the VAT owed for an exchange of free carry is £3.6M difference and who is to say if additional VAT receipts by the end of the year will equate to the figure or near to it. I therefore concluded this was not an issue for us to be to concerned about.

I am happy for others to challenge what I have written. All of the above is how I saw how it works.

Regards Tony

Plenty of buyers, but hit with 850,000 sells (3 at 250,000 a go). Late March end of year rebalancing and they exploit the early buyers to off load. Eventually that seller is done and Shanta finds its price discovery.

So a dump of shares at 8:32. I can only think its a portfolio readjustment somewhere. Once the seller is finished Shanta to find its value. Trading at a trailing 9 PE when forward income is better than last year's gold price when hedge existed. Back up the truck and load up.

So promising drill results give a negative response by the market. How strange. The company is likely to achieve all its JORC targets in the coming 18 months imop. The company is trading below in the ground values for resource and reserves.

Last of my previous sold bought back. Fully loaded again.

No to your geologist question (Immunologist/biochemist).

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1242751631.php

Very rough maths as I made a lot of assumptions on true width of drill hole and rock density when equating it into tonnage of gold g/t per ton.

On the two best Kenya drill holes, I have estimated 300,000 resource ounces of gold. The best hole in Singuida gave a possible 60,000 ounces of resource ounces and and the best hole in Luika gave 125,000 ounces. This excludes all the other holes. 480,000 at $30 returns $14.4M on the exploration on just the biggest 4 drill results. Enterprise value increase is £10M which should add at least penny to the share price this morning.

If the EU are doing whatever it takes to cap bond rates and keeps the euro currency competitive, can the USA FED really do anything, but the same move in their play book. The dollar has sharply appreciated against the Yuan, do they really want to have a cheap euro batting against them in the global market as well. Its time Powell to utter a similar message that a high interest rate agenda is not on the cards on the 10 year Treasuries. If he does we may well have a bottom on the gold retreat.

The involvement of Eti Bakir may lead to an acceleration of development as they may strike a deal where the start up capex cost may go 60/40 to Eti for example but AAZ gets 60/40 of the profit share after Azerbaijan Government gets there profit share cut. The advantage to everyone is a fast track to develop new assets and at the same time there is a shared de-risk for all the parties involved. What is crucial is for AAZ to model in either one or two new tailings dam into the Capex as the company expands production above 120,000 ounce of gold or its equivalent per year. AAZ Government can influence a deal if they gave an extra year of income without taking a profit share cut for 12 months or a good discount rate as it would give them a lot more income in following years if they wanted accelerated development of assets to proceed ahead. Very interesting find join the dots and also a big thanks for sharing with us. Tony