Member Info for Tornadotony

The declining wedge is 146p to 154p. (147-156p 2 days ago). Share price just below it.

So I have rebought some at 145.x p

Always kept some money back for this day. Good RNS

Now we know why they restricted production to the existing mine at Gedabek as they had not received this approval. This is great news and allows them to expand production capacity by Q4 which was their original intention. I expect AAZ to go higher today.

University of Plymouth. Mecca of academia in therapeutic virology.

Hope they appear so we get their shares at a an attractive price tomorrow. May they be in a panic to hit the sell button as they join all the others wanting to buy a blind horse like treatment for Covid-19 that probably has side effects as long as your right arm and may not have any efficacy to avoid hospitalisations numbers but make the worried relatively well less well.

How interesting.

Bagged a modest gain (2 bottles of champagne), but more importantly can buy again if it goes under the wedge. The bottom is 146.5p.

At least I hope its just touching back to it at 1567p. On each rise it has done these touch backs to wherever the support line had risen to.

As the share is slightly below the wedge, I have bought as I believe that it goes back to 152-154p area. We shall see if it turns out to be the case. As for those concerned about the decline, i would be far more concerned with a rising wedge into news than a declining wedge. The reason being that shares are bought on the initial decline they get sold at resistance and there is more profit made by the trader to buy more synairgen shares on the repeat. Some may just build up extra cash for eventual news

HeleB

Possibly an RNS. However it may arise beforehand A rise out of a descending wedge will depend on the news at that time. All I can say is that a wedge on a rising channel is bearish (usually profit taking and buyer exhaustion) and a wedge on a descending channel is bullish in that we have exhausted the sellers and have a good entry price on news. The only guide we have are previous highs being resistance if the news is good. Tony

The descending bullish wedge completes on 12 May in my opinion. As we approach the completion the bottom of the wedge is 140p and the top is just 142p at this time. This assumes the wedge goes to completion. The pressure in the price compression may result in an earlier move if an RNS is published before that date. The top of the wedge is currently 156p and the bottom (for a close price is 147p). We are already at 9p in the compression. The wedge compression in February when this chart pattern started on 18 Feb was 25p. A good news RNS will have a lot of power on a breakout from the descending wedge.

The following are marker bottom and highest prices on weekly dates. 26 April 145p bottom 152p top compression at 7p.
4th May bottom at 143p top at 147.5p compression at 4.5p. The compression on 10th of May is just 3p 141-144p 12th May the compression is less than 2p and the wedge is closing. This is usually a very bullish chart pattern. It is possible to have intra-day moves outside of the wedge, but they have been moving always back into the wedge since 18 February.

Penny has not dropped yet but the future value of the company is up a billion dollars once rare elements come on stream. For the short term add $400M.

I speculated that Luika had greater than 60,000 ounces from the one predominant hole on what I wrote on 16 March. So the resources quoted seem sensible. Most of the ounces in the last drill results came from Singuida and those have yet to be added. The NPV vale of the company should increase by $2M this morning. So we should kick off 0.25p or so higher on the sell side. You may recall I expected more ounces to be added by that deposit.

1. The production from Avshancli 1 and 3 planned for 2022 remains in current plans.
2. The difference in gold production from the Hartman report forecasts is around 10,000 ounces less than estimated for 2021. 2,000 ounces fall arises in processing more copper in the coming year which may contain less gold than the the copper ore stocks used in the past. The pattern of starting the year with low grading of ore used in Q1 is similar to what was done in Q1 of 2020. The remainder of the shortfall in gold forecast by Hardman was an overestimate of Ugur gold ounces remaining.
3. The amount of dry ore processed was 11% less than in Q4 of 2020. It may have been weather related but quite possibly down to maintenance schedules at the mine as many companies have more of this activity in Q1 than in the later quarters and this can slow production.
4. Silver production remains constant and slightly higher over 2020.
5. Although copper production beats Q1 of 2020 by 14% it is less than Q4 2020 output. This is due to selection of lower grade and processing a lower volume of dry ore.
6. The Hardman was broadly correct on the cash position of AAZ as of 31 December last year but tax bills etc fell in Q1. Hartman has AAZ with a cash total of $60M by end of 2021. So lets assume the gold price is $1665 on a production of 51,000 ounces of gold. This gives $84.9M revenue. The copper revenue is likely to be at least $23M. Silver $2.5M. Total is $110M which is $1M less revenue than in 2020. These figures give a figure of $55M in the bank if costs were the same as in 2020.
7. The cost issue for the AISC and administration costs and how they compare with 2020 is still unknown and these are usually measured in the H1 report. If the gold price average was $1750 for the same 51,000 gold production than $4.5M additional revenue is earned. If the company alternatively hit the top end of guidance for $1665 gold price average than $5M additional revenue is earned.

In conclusion the company needs high gold and copper prices for all or most of 2021. It needs to be striving to hit the top end of guidance. If all these elements come together an increase in production costs of up to 8% in 2021 would still deliver the Hardman projected forecast.

Sussex
https://cen.acs.org/materials/inorganic-chemistry/Utah-based-Energy-Fuels-plans/98/web/2020/12

Well if some shorter thinks they will get my Shanta shares on the cheap because they want to aid a takeover of the company at sub fire sale prices, than they can take a long walk on a short pier. No chance I am holding my lot and won't be bullied.

The share price was 132p. The company had $26M in the bank. The company earned just under $3M more than the first quarter last year compared to this year on revenue. After sharing with Azerbaijan government and taxes the difference is $1.5M net.

So the company has swathe of new assets and mineral resources and has $12M more in the bank and today is priced 10p less per share. The GEO production forecast is broadly the same. If gold prices do rally and copper maintains its 30% increased value over 2020 levels than the stock should perform very similar to 2020 (but without a war bearing low).

The change from January was that an asset near the Gedabek mine is not being added to the mix. Instead they have a huge stock of copper ore in the open pit and want to process it while the copper price is rising. With 30% rises in copper and 14% increased production from a year ago that is a 42% increase in the copper income. Gold production has dropped and only partly off set by a rise in prices since H1 2020, but accounts for a greater share of the profit cake. The overall impact in GEOs then becomes marginal and they have stayed with the same target as late 2020. So for those following gold it looks disappointing, but for those seeing a huge copper stock pile of ore getting processed and out of the way its not looking so bad as the bottom line is still some good income for 2021.

No it does not make sense at all being down at this level. We should get a quarterly report soon. All I can say is they have priced in some really poor news beforehand.