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Can post in batches of 20. For brevity I keep them to one line.

The analysis is 12 minutes in for anyone checking it out. The falling wedge gave way to the next support line that is rising up. We just have to wait what happens tomorrow. I am not trading or playing this move. I was highly successful trading Synairgen last financial year but the project has de-risked. What I have done is reviewed every competitor drug in competition in the running against Synairgen over the bank holdiay. I suspect Synairgen handed a hospital pass to several competitors going for the mild Covid-19 market sector as I can see several now delivering similar data, but they may not have a biological marker to detect or differentiate where a mild case would become serious. At the beginning of the year Synairgen was in a red hot position as practically 17 out of the first 20 listed in the Covid-19 tracker trials were non-runners against the Synairgen identified market cohort to treat. 2 out of the remaining were 9 to 10 months behind Synairgen. The situation continues to when Synairgen put in their 12 February entry. Since that time 42 others have filed potential therapies. Around 16 or so need to be on the radar but quite a few are in phase 1 trials. Furthermorer, very few are drugs and a number require clinical management to administer. I still believe Synairgen is in a very good place, it has few ADR risks, its easy to administer, it reduces hospital bed stay and few of its rivals are given efficacy data that matches the July observations. So the big drop on Friday has just made me do more market homework than examine the chart. I still believe in the Synairgen product and so I am staying put. I like how this product works and sometimes the technically simplest ideas can turn about to be the best.
Synairgen remind me of a family run Randox Laboratories as they existed 35 years ago (They now sponsor Grand National). I have also appreciated how fast Synairgen has moved this project when I compare it to others their size and against some of the big players who can afford to lose money on lots of different projects on the same disease. I got the chart move wrong on Friday so I am hesitant to say what happens tomorrow. My convictions on what the company are doing and what they have to offer remain strong.

Another item to save on favourites for when they update it.

https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04732949?term=synairgen&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2

Listed as 1 September 2021

Splitting hairs in all of this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hb2xom5zGgk Professor Holgate used the phrase early summer. The definition of early summer can still be after 1 July. The second point is on track still for H2, 2021. At the same time they need to scale up production. In the previous RNS back in January there was no time given on the actual completion of P3. In all my investments I always read x will be due in Quarter Y of H1 or H2 for that year as that is how they get written in an RNS document.

in the northern hemisphere are we likely to have serious demand for product or a result from Synairgen in July. Quite likely that orders for supply can be provisionally booked if results go well, but the real demand for product delivery is Q4. If the P3 results mirror P2 results would authorisation for use be delayed for accelerated supply to just wait for months on peer review. I suspect the answer is no if the company are working closely with regulators during the actual P3 trial.

As for competition. there are a couple of possibilities in the background as have always existed. New ones arrive and replace a few previous that were present before. The cytokine storm brigade are not getting the results they expect. In the end its a nebuliser or a pill that you can take at home after an assessment perhaps in a hospital setting that delivers the target cost benefits and reduces the fear on Covid to something we experience with influenza on an annual basis.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/28/928841997/government-signs-deal-for-covid-19-treatments-from-eli-lilly?t=1619951540336

The attached shows how a monoclonal antibody from Eli Lilley prevented 6.3% of patients going into theatre for admissions but caused 1.6% from its treatment group to go in. The cost of being admitted and all the follow on treatment is around $50,000 all in for USA. One infusion of antibody costs $1250 a go. Now just think a minute if we know that 3% are the breathless group we have a target to go for in the community that can keep them out of hospital. This is why I felt the news was good on Friday. Please read the article and feel free to comment.

By the way everything I write on here is to be helpful and everyone has to decide their own investment risks whether product research or charts or anything. Those giving critical analysis that are sensibly put should be welcome here and to remind us that we can not know everything as we do not know what we do not know.

One possibility that I hope could be pursued is that several Indian hospitals could be recruited into P3. It may be only 100 patients or so and if a lot of these were seriously ill clinical and nursing staff they may accept a placebo arm. It would also accelerate the P3 trial. If anyone has a closer contact in the Southampton Synairgen team to see if WHO, MHRA and the Indian Health department could give contacts to facilitate this inclusion it would be a win win development. It would certainly help bring the time table of P3 more into line with August or September reading.

I am reviewing the 70 WHO tracker entries on therapies. I presume folks know that the Roche drug targeting Interleukin 6 cytokine storm failed to meet its P3 end points on 21 April and probably joins 3 others that have been removed. 10 of the WHO entries are in stage 1 or 1b and are mainly observation studies. 17 are in Phase 2 and not near the phase 3 yet. 2 other trials in P3 looking at Interleukin 6 might go the same way as Roche. A lot of the drugs in P3 trials trials tackle symptoms and do not stop viral replication in the lung (for example Heparin). I should add there is reason why some drugs require 10 fold patients in P3 than Synairgen and that has a lot to do with patient safety and side effects of what their medication does or could do in the body (some of the monoclonal therapies ). I could end up with a similar to finding given by Seaboy in the end which is that the current wave of therapies either does not target the Synairgen cohort space or its a lot more risky for the patient to receive.

I decided to hold through the sell off on this occasion and its based more on the science and were the product can be used. Synairgen is 8% of my portfolio. At any time an institutional investor can decide to use an RNS to buy in or dump shares. Sometimes one big institution pulls out and another fund manager buys in at a price they like. The major PI holders have their funding decisions just as many here do and have followed actions they are comfortable with to manage their investment risk. Days like today can make us humble and it can happen on any investment at any time. Hence why I try to be generous and supportive on the boards and share what I know.

The best thing now is to switch off the long weekend and stay healthy and resilient whatever happens.

Not sure why its down today.

One last point which has been lost today. The patients in the home study could self dose themselves safely. The fact you can discharge somebody and they can finish their treatment at home saves £400 a day in a hospital bed. ore importantly it frees up resources to do something else.

The news all depends on where it is viewed from. If anyone was looking at mass market and that their £10 prescription was going to give them a £1400 to £2,000 course of medication treatment, today was really bad news. If it was for mass market the company would need to have got costs down by 90% for it to be affordable. For those who were hoping that say 80% of mildly ill patients would show an improvement over a placebo group with their mild illness it was going to hit problems with the analysis as the extent of improvement to wellness is much smaller. Its also hard to economically justify expensive treatment for those people who would recover in a few days anyway.

What it does show more clearly than before is where it should be used, that its safe and its market application can be supported in a clinical protocol applied routinely by Covid-19 treatment teams in AE just as stroke teams deal with TIA patients when they arrive into hospital. For patients, they believe need a pill (as they have evidence of them being mild group they are handled as such on that arm of the protocol, but it is likely that nebulised beta interferon has its own arm of the protocol with oxygen therapy and patients go home quicker and allow other services to run effectively in the hospital and thus future lockdowns can be further reduced or avoided.

Doc I think it was not realistic to ever treat large numbers of people out of the hospital on very expensive therapy treatment, however the protocol may allow a cohort of patients to leave after a shorter stay in hospital and the 14 patients that were more severe in the home study improve the data set. A cheap pill is for the mild group, but that mild cohort is not what stresses the hospitals and put nations into lockdowns. The data today in the backdrop of what vaccines are doing actually focus and support the synairgen product in a specific area of treatment where it is likely to be cost effective and a valuable component in the toolkit of reducing Covid-19 impacts on mortality and morbidity within the hospital setting.

Aj242

It may be called something different, but government and a supplier company sometimes draft out a specification of some kind for it to be entered on to the drug tariff. This is usually when a bulk order for supply is going on of many millions being added onto the drug tariff budget. So it describes the apparatus (inhaler), how its packaged and this is the important bit for whom it would be used. I am not sure if the National Institute of Clinical Excellence now get involved with all of this as I have been away from that scene for decades and went into healthcare R&D.

AJ242

I worked in healthcare science field all my career. I fully understand the clinical trial expert readers we have here and they did not see what they were hoping for. However from the perspective of a health provider purchaser, they can draft far more clearly what the prescription specification can be to get this product on to the drug tariff. (As someone who had to write these in the past). There was a positive side this morning and I was not wearing blinkers. I saw some unpleasant risks being removed.

mact always give your technical opinions. I always welcome other views and do not take offence to other opinions. .

Swgh87

I read it the same way and was seeing how it might help with protocol decisions at A and E as patients get brought in and are assessed.

Maybe we need to wait for the webinar. What is clear so far is the old chart pattern is behind us. If we have an institutional seller than the rise up may be slower is all I can think of. Why on earth they have to sell at this time may have nothing to do with Synairgen.

The third resistance line is at 160p and once gone its on a breakaway much higher.

The real test starts at 190p

1. It backs up the initial study in July 2020.
2. It defines the area of patient prescription in its use more clearly.
3. The areas of prescription offer the prospect of avoidance to attend hospital, initially for oxygen and then more intensive therapy as the spread of infection could be far worse.
4. It impacts where the cost of treatment is the highest for the NHS and protects its resources for other care pathways more effectively.
5. The final phase III results are likely to complete 30 June 2021 or will be available for analysis.

The wedge pattern breaks today, I believe the chart is bullish. Target area 205p-240p close of play is what I hope for but depends on institutional buying.