Market cost analysis5 May 2021 01:53
The world spends £1 trillion on pharmaceuticals per year. The UK NHS is 2% of the global market. If the company produces 1.2M treatments a year then 24,000 are for the NHS at a cost of £50M. It is likely that 100 influenza patients per year taking up ICU beds at £955 a day are cost effective for synairgen beta interferon treatment. Around 500 virally acquired pneumonia patients some of whom are hospital acquired infections in hospital would save up to $1600 on bed stay costs each if they received beta interferon promptly and could recover at home. Around 5,000 patients infected with Covid-19 would be cost effective to treat on 5 bed saving costs alone. Although perhaps more borderline around 1000 older influenza patients on ordinary wards could also be cost effective to treat where the occupancy is 4 plus days if they were not treated. These give 6,600 treatments per year. The remainder has to allow some room for peak years as they could be 50% higher, but the main beneficiary would be COPD acute exacerbations per year that are caused by lung infections. This cohort would fully utilise the rest of the UK share of the 2% needed. COPD patients already cost the NHS £800M a year and the selective intervention may well be recovered in the overall budget and they account for 10% of all emergency admissions. The USA is likely to be 60% of the production and remainder of EU say around 15% and rest of the world getting the rest. So although this whole project of late is about Covid-19, the reality is that economics of production suggest that supply contracts should be for the entire repertoire. Procurement on that basis would go some way in reducing the 2,000 beds per day occupied by respiratory diseases in the NHS. It absorbs 1.5% of the entire bed usage in the NHS. However more importantly it would manage more efficiently the use of all NHS resources more effectively in the winter months. In some way the arrival of vaccines may re-engineer the production for multiple use and to have a composite impact on NHS healthcare pathways. Good night everybody.
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