Member Info for Tornadotony

It is undervalued as p3 stage clinical trial probably over half way. The normal valuation would be 180p at the top end. With all the competition in the area this might adjust to 150p. There is no evidence of the trial at risk of failure. Indeed the chances of success are around 84% as the drug has minimal ADRs and has a long safety record. Efficacy is likely to remain high regardless of variant is another advantage. The drop is similar to other Covid-19 stocks and may be ETF driven.

Took some off the table to buy back on any retreat. A small profit, but at least I have buy ammo if it goes that way.

Its bear trap and bull trap day in the gold market. I am on the side that gold elevates higher in H2. May is quite often a tricky month for everything.

The other game in town is bear and bull traps, I suspect traders will be all of this on the gold front.

The inflation data looks highly transitory to me. I would be surprised if the rally in gold continues but who knows how they will play it on USA open. Shanta does zippo.

Its a month ago we had the RNS on Burundi Export halt come Friday. Both parties should be able to agree something in a communication to the stakeholder investors.

Thunder its just a question of timing. Its having a go as I write this. What I have written may be proven wrong but and gap from where USA closed yesterday is still likely to get back filled imop.

Gold retreated but it has crept up for USA open. I suspect the weekend article in Gold eagle was right. Gold peak in May was to be this week. Looks like failure to break upper resistance. If so next higher low is 108-110 area and gold has another go in June if that is what actually unfolds.

I agree Colonel for H2 assessment. It was just for this month we have some odd moves on gold to put up with.

booboo,
The markets are looking for non-transitory markers of inflation. So the headline number may look like a rocket ship rise, but its all the data underneath and where it shows inflation increases being embedded such as high wage costs. In some ways they need to compare inflation where it was two years ago in 2019 to remove all base effects and then divide it by 2 to get a proper 2020 price then a 2021 price from that. The market either dumps gold or they buy it on what they choose to read into it. If we find going to the restaurant is like going to the barbers of late and we have 30%-50% price increases, a lot of people won't go back again or maybe they try somewhere else or they frequent such places far less often. The effect then becomes transitory as the extra cash built up over Covid-19 may well evaporate by September. They also have new business operations completely replacing would be retired competitors and timings of market entry may increase competition in coming months. Those numbers may be dis-inflationary when they arrive especially if they want new customers. Its going to be really hard to read what gold will actually do in all of this. Tony

The 40% figure in USA was all the northern states and a few in the middle.

My £2 comment excluded all markets except UK and only 40% of potential USA market. It assumed Covid-19 market was non-existent. It assumed the use of the drug was selective under hospital admission protocols where if recovery was delivered the patient could look after themselves with the treatment at home and avoid high bed usage and only applicable during late autumn and winter peak months.

All about how they interpret inflation findings in USA and not long from now. I am staying with my Shanta shares and not trading any moves on them. We have far bigger results specific to the company in the coming weeks and months ahead and a decision over the VAT rebate at some point is to be made. Some of the other gold miners are better in H1 than H2 and for some its the other way round. Shanta is a high performer in H2.

https://www.alacrita.com/whitepapers/valuing-pharmaceutical-assets-when-to-use-npv-vs-rnpv

Tonlin

When Covid-19 is a distant memory, the data from the P3 trial will hopefully prove that the drug disbursed through the nebuliser is an excellent product in the toolkit to deal with viral induced acute exacerbations in the NHS that either end up in patient wards or ICU at $1000 plus a day. The revenue income from USA and UK alone is probably £100M a year and the share price on the profit after taxes makes this a £2 plus share.

Just as I wrote the former its back to 143p.

Now 138p on the sell. It either rockets up on USA inflation news later or it retreats to 134p area and sets up a higher low platform a break below 132p is trouble as its a new chart signal. Never straight forward these moves as it all depends on how they choose to interpret the data.

Lets put a few things in perspective. The company increased its resources in the first 3 months that revalued the company at 55p a share as resources in the ground back in September 2020. After the COOLA resources and revised MREC flow sheet the company was revalued to 70p. I recall my concern about the UK facility proposal in 12 October as I knew it would add delays, however the entire concept added huge value and that objective was well supported by folks here and in the market as the company was finding a 90-95p share price. Elevated rare earth prices than took the stock price to the close of tonight.

In the meantime the company added more value and has obtained all the necessary approvals for both the UK facility and the mine to be constructed and that has taken to March 2021. It has coincided with the expansion of the team and recruitment on to Board and staff level in key positions. In April we got the headlines of what the company was doing and it included stakeholders locally at Hull and out in Angola and their blue hydrogen recycle plan regarding sustainability. The company has made a lot of effort in being inclusive to a lot of stakeholders. It has also patented manufacturing processes with sulphate concentrates.

It now comes down to the hard cash and the Chairman is looking at a blend of options. This is where the business end of the deal comes in. Paul and his team have got to get this piece in the plan absolutely right. The next phase afterwards is delivery and I am sure many people are keen to get on with the job. i am hoping we get a decision in the next 4 weeks but we have to wait and see.

As an aside a support line from July last year that has been rising by 0.5p on average every trading day now sits around 110p.

Pleased that Ivermectin was heavily restricted in its use was the advice being given. I think number 45 on the 1-70 list is finally dead.

https://carbontracker.org/mineral-constraints-for-transition-overstated-by-iea/