Member Info for Tornadotony

Gold broke resistance overnight.

Additional information. It is likely that 25% of admissions may well be excluded by the protocol. The likely acceptance to participate amongst those asked to consent is probably 60% (similar to data found in 35 cancer trial recruitment rates). So in theory it could be as high as 48% overall, but perhaps a figure of half or so missed is about right and would give us 420 patients recruited and 190 to go on a 25% overall recruitment from admissions. The additional sites recruited abroad and especially those undertaken within India if started say in two-three weeks from now would close out recruitment by third week of July. This would be a recruitment rate of 6 patients per day per hospital over 7 weeks. Trial results published in October 2021. It would include plenty of evidence on the latest Indian variants.

If Synairgen was able to recruit 3 out of every 500 patients admitted to hospitals in England from 12 January to now . the last patient would have been recruited this weekend. If it was 1 in 500 patients that figure is 215 recruited and at 2 in 500 it is 430.

The 8 hospitals were not all recruited at once with some added later. Although we may have 332 hospitals or so in England not all deal with Covid 19 patients. So it maybe useful to work on a figure of 5/300. If we assume 1 in 3 were recruited as they would all be oxygen and hence admission 1.65/300 = 2.74/500 around 555 patients recruited. If it was in 1 in 6 admitted being recruited of course gives a rate of 1.34/500 277 patients recruited. I have no idea how successful the recruiting sites were and some will have done very well and others may not be so. I welcome more experienced comments on trial recruitment uptake.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/820141-5-pharmaceutical-companies-with-phase-iii-clinical-study-catalysts-during-the-next-3-9-months-part-ii

Its the phase 3 trial graphs of company share prices that are interesting.

Now is the best time to get it out of the way and done with. Keep all the good news to H2. (Gold hits resistance).

For this one I am not sure if Pensana are part of a second application for the recycling element.

https://www.ukri.org/opportunity/automotive-transformation-fund-round-10/

Applicants notified 18 June 2021

Miners have not joined in on the whole. Downtrend for the remainder of May with lower highs occasionally thrown in is a possible trend. The next challenge a retest at 1800. So I would only buy dip if its a proper 9-10% correction from the 122 peak as a higher low area.

https://apply-for-innovation-funding.service.gov.uk/competition/844/overview#scope

I dare say many have read all this.

I wonder if the Government will raise the dates of second stage as local elections are out of the way. If no RNS this kind of thing is useful. To get say 50% of Saltend funding on a grant is very useful.

Closes on Monday. Could signal RNS. If its good we get a breakout above resistance. Usually its bullish but as I found recently on Synairgen it wasn't. Hopefully its good news this time.

Thanks for reminding me of this. So it looks as if everything gets resolved by July.

The current value of an African acquisition of inferred only measurements would be;

0.03 (inferred is 3% basket price on acquisition takeover) x 24,500,000 (tonnes owned) x $135 estimated = share price of 15.6p.

An additional issue is that the stacks are an inferred resource as the examination of the stacks is focussed on manufacture planning and establishing scale. To transfer to Indicated or Measured requires a lot more assays. My multiplying by a third on pre-manufacture was equivalent to a value of inferred to be tested and becoming measured and the costs being offset once the production was in place.

Planets aligned

It does not operate the way you may think in the gold market but what is really reliable is when long contracts have vastly out numbered short positions in the paper market. On top of that physical is not being bought so much in May for a host of reasons such as the India market awaits monsoon as well as getting on the pandemic down curve, USA market is redesigning their coins and they come out as new editions in the summer. It may take a month for the market to behave more like you would expect in the current circumstances, its that demand in paper contracts (already fulfilled) and physical market that is not aligned. Tony

Taking the 28 April RNS and correcting for price changes;

$135 (basket) x 24,500,000 (tonnes of gypsum) x 0.8 (recovery rate) x 0.50 (government take) x 0.2 (profit after manufacture and process) = $246m = £189M = 42p a share. Pre manufacture value divide by 3 equates to 14p a share. This is a fairly brutal carve up on those gypsum stocks.

Coming back to Centamin its about 109p holding on a rising support line. Do not be surprised if we hit it tomorrow or early next week. Gold was overbought and its a shakeout until its oversold or just not overbought. This could take days or weeks.

Rare metal prices have pulled back. So from 20p this was heading to 16p in any case. The rare metal prices are getting hit with delays in the West green programme in USA, EU and UK. After all the talking we are not seeing action and that won't hold for long and pressure will be made for decisions to start happening like next month.

The second point is that we know that new testing protocols are being written (probably done) and then put into practice which probably takes a month. What we do not know is whether we have any other issue.

If Burundi want a Saltend facility (Pensana) that is beyond Rainbow and the Government might want to buy a slice of the action going on in Hull and wanting its Rainbow output to go there and they invest in a processing stake at their own cost. If that is the case then a lot of complications are in the set up. What is not possible is to build such a plant operation in Burundi for a host of reasons. On top of this we do not know what China are doing. They certainly would not help them accrued additional value higher up the value chain. The additional problem is that the whole mining operation has a modest operating return for the company and it relates to the nature of the mining resource. Making it more uneconomic to mine out by the Burundi Government is like ending the project completely. In the the Government either believes what the company is telling what is possible or it doesn't. I doubt if any new company would step in and replace Rainbow. If they did Rainbow would need to be compensated for licence withdrawal for what is an enforced sale of the asset when they have done nothing wrong.

He called it and was spot on last weekend. Have got ammo buying for this retreat when it settles to support next rally. (Thanks to sells Monday to Wednesday).

About time the Board had a woman on it and they have somebody who is in top draw.. Mrs Tornadotony has put more funds in her share account to get more Shanta on any pullback. The point I am making is that we have women investors as well.