RE: SNG Monthy Sales/Demand20 May 2021 17:29
The NHS demand in the episode statistics for 2018/19 before Covid -19 was 2.6 million bed days arising from influenza and pneumonia. Additionally another 534,000 bed days are other lung infections and again 25% or so involve other viral infections. Typical mean age is 72 years old. ICU bed use for both groups was 87,769 days. Lets say 10% of all ICU admissions that are viral induced get interferon in the UK is 2,200 patients per year (non-Covid-19) and is cost effective to treat as some may take up an ICU bed for a number of days. FCE bed use per patient is 3 days for pneumonia and influenza and assuming a proportion would want a therapy to be at home rather the hospital and again only 20% were approached and taken up then 70,000 would be economically viable to treat especially when hospital workloads were impacting other care. If we assume just 5,000 patients with Covid-19 needed to be treated the UK workload is 77,000 patients. The USA market is 11 times greater than the UK market but lets assume its only prescribed to northern states and 5.5 times was used. USA market is 425,000 per year. Europe and Asia would give similar statistics to USA. So global market 1,020,000 plus several months advance supply is needed and for those events when Covid-19 spikes higher than a background level of cases on a winter breakout. It therefore looks viable to sell all the projected production and Covid-19 is quite possibly only 8% of the market.
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