Member Info for Tornadotony

Shanta looks as if its the only riser. Poly, Fres, Humm, HOC, Serabi, AAZ, Greatland etc all down. Centamin is not alone getting hit.

Shanta so far is doing the opposite to Centamin, Fresnillo, Polymetal and AAZ to name a few.

Based upon a long term price of $1750 gold per ounce.

1. Sukari measured resources at 7.45M last year. $125 x 3.725M on 50% conversion to reserves = $465M.
2. Indicated and inferred Resources at Sukari $60 x 2.75M= $165M
3. West Africa assets value at least $100M.
4. The company has $313M in the bank as of 30 March 2021.
5. Sukari Reserves are 4.4M ounces and with a full mine fleet and plant in place x $200 = $880M (50% depreciation of all plant and property is $400M value).

$1923M = £1354M shares in issue = 1157M = 117p

Liberium assumed no additional ore bodies which I fundamentally disagree and the company March issue said there was from exploration work done in Q1. Say it is a reserve of 150,000 ounces found over two years. 117p+ 2p = 119p
All Liberium has actually done is take last year published net assets and took last year sterling dollar rate at 1.35 instead of 1.42 and guess what you get 82p.

Reserves alone plus cash is 98p. Resources would add another 21p = 119p is fair value.

At 16p then at 15.25p for second support line. A test at 15.25 support and holding is actually very bullish for longer term and advancing from there with strength. A lot of miners have a weak hand this morning and may suggest gold pulls back a bit for weekend.

oops new for knew

Taking any analyst price on a gold miner without knowing their predictions on gold price with it is a futile recommendation. So if Liberium believed that gold price was to tank to $1500 then 82p makes sense. I believe the low on gold and Centamin was $1675 and 101p. It is possible for gold to slip to 1725 say on a much stronger US dollar but that would give a target say of 105p on Centamin. Recently Curry (Gold Eagle) got the pullback on gold wrong as all the drama happened on cryptos unfolded and his projection were correct for six months in a row. Perhaps a shallow delayed pullback is in play but the physical market will have all their knew designed coins out in June. Per haps a physical discount is in play to get more early interest. What most expect however is gold to go higher in H2. If it does my Centamin target is 130p as it has higher costs in H2 to moderate on a rise. Next year is a good high price for Centamin and i raise my target to 165p. I hope this missive is more informative than the Liberium guesswork and dart throwing.

astro999

Your not an idiot, you chose to be an investor. It will be worth a lot more than 30% your down in a few months time. When this share turns it will be past 125p before anyone can buy any. I have averaged off my ISAs which are probably 20% down and see this as bargain buy opportunity.

Hogsnipe

The ISA buy I made this morning at 109.48 appears as a sell. Difficult to always know what is a real sell and a buy on small trades..

(One of my earlier sells at 119p bought back.)

Partial overlap with Synairgen patient cohort. This does help with the toolkit as more than one therapy needed. GSK product can be used on children.

Therefore, sotrovimab is not authorized for use in patients who are hospitalized due to COVID-19, OR who require oxygen therapy due to COVID-19, OR who require an increase in baseline oxygen flow rate due to COVID-19 in those on chronic oxygen therapy due to underlying non-COVID-19 related comorbidity.

Not sitting on a lot of shares!

I should stress that a lot of companies do not actually patent manufacturing processes that are novel. Quite often it is kept as secret and stored as company know how. The reasons for doing this is that Chinese companies in particular may choose to ignore the patent and use the recipe for their own advantage. The second reason is that other company's can produce picket patents around the original filed patent thus limiting further innovations. A few other Pensana message boards have gone on about the absence of patents on the MREC and thorium processing which the company has not divulged. The company is within its rights to choose not to disclose its innovation in a patent and maintain its commercial secrets. This is a legitimate intellectual property process.

I am working things out from a different direction. First of all the share received no uplift on rare metal prices until December. A whole month of rising rare earth prices gave nothing to Pensana. We all know that the share moved to 65p as a result of the a tripling of resources in the ground. Secondly, the company developed a novel MREC process using a sulphate generated concentrate that reduced process costs by 15%. In essence the conventional MREC was achieving 21% feeder concentrate of NDPr and the company was able to improve this to 35%. The concentrator cost is in the RNS of 21 April is a pivotal development with the mine. The value added is therefore at least 15% and hence why the low OPEX of $22/ kg. So this takes us to 75p base point.

Beyond this the story changed to include Saltend and this involves producing magnets of NdPr. Getting the permitting done of Saltend has a share value and I think it takes the base 20% higher. So the floor is 90p imop. The floor has an NDPr per tonne of say $50,000. Last week the figure was $76,000. So the floor price on Pensana would have been 136p last week. I do not not have today's price, but I would be stunned if it dropped 33% in a week. I also can not see the magnet prices below levels never seen before.

A company actually constructing and going into manufacture will be valued a lot higher than in the ground floor price as it has functional facilities that have a capital depreciation rate. To apply that depreciation rate it has to be accepted that the company has created assets along with the debt that is added to enterprise value. The company is then valued on probable forward earnings expectations and given a PE rate.

The argument Pensana has made to the market is that the decline in rare earth metal prices is temporary as China demand by 2023 will be going through the roof and that the west needs its own supply. Western prices are also 30% higher than Chinese sourced pricing which probably relates a lot more to real economic production costs. I therefore would suggest not assuming that any current drop in rare earth metal prices is likely to affect the future earnings potential of Pensana that it may well generate from 2023.

I took off the overweights I put on at 97p, 105p and 109p. It was not a day trade. Important if overweights are put on to take them off as then cash in the portfolio exists on any future price drop. Of course the pool average as in my case for Synairgen is a lot lower. Any settling around here is building back up the cash rear guard. Also have that 147p resistance line I mentioned before.

I have plenty of cash, but I only use it on confirmed bottoms. Synairgen put a bottom in at 96p. I went in at 97,105, 109 as overweights on Synairgen and have just sold around 143p and 50% from that trade now going into Pensana. Keeping cash reserve in case its not the bottom here, but I suspect it might be.

Bought some at 113p after making gains elsewhere. Should take another 8p off the pool. Held my nose and bought.

There is a bottom in the share price.

In the first year until late March I traded Pensana successfully. In April I went in as an investor for this stock when my partner decided not to buy another property. 40% of my current Pensana position is the profit last year and it is 18% of my entire current portfolio. My last top was at 129p to give the average 6p closer to my previous March exit price. I am currently down in Pensana, but my trading stock have banked just under 3% increase for my entire portfolio since 5 April. My current Pensana position is -3% in the entire portfolio, but I have one other investing stock that is plus 2%. The point I am making is having a diversified portfolio of 6 or so stocks and having some as investment and some as trading can keep you level or slightly ahead in situations like we have now. I am hoping the 120p weekly chart support holds.
I presume some of you have seen the article in the Guardian this morning putting pressure on the government to do more than talk about green policies.