Member Info for Tornadotony

Covid-19

"There is a danger of not opening up and this infection is now a human endemic infection. It’s not going away,’ he said. ‘Humanity will live with this virus now for ever. And there will be new variants. This year, next year, the year after, there will be new variants – and we will have to learn to cope with that."
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One way to cope is having therapies that help equate Covid-19 as equivalent to influenza. Hold your Synairgen shares as one of the top 8 promising therapies that could be in play in the autumn and we probably need all of them. Tony

I plotted a comparison chart against MP materials, Pensana and Rainbow Rare Earths. On the annual chart Pensana is at no change with MP materials. On the six monthly chart with Rainbow Rare Earths there is no difference. On a year to date chart (just over 5 months from Jan 1) it shows a divergence arose between Rainbow and Pensana on 20 May. If Pensana returns to 130p next week that divergence goes back to no difference and a Pensana previous outperformance to Rainbow is recovered.

Please do not think that any of us can control the share price and we have or somebody else has magical powers like some kind of guru to influence the path of the share price. Charts analysis and fundamental knowledge can help us as useful tools with our investment strategy. It also helps us with dead cats thrown by other people on the table to distract from what we do know and waste time following up their garbage.

Pensana will go up along with the whole sector at some point. Yellen in her talk today gave a decision making roadmap to help investors move ahead with climate change investments. That roadmap gets finalised end of summer and the start of October. This is the real time frame for change and works across powerful financial forces across the entire globe. I am sure Pensana will give us a bone of information at some point to excite interest in the stock again and we get a recovery to the 130p mark. A case of patience until they have something promising to say. It may also be sectorial news that might spur the sector like a big argument between USA and China and rare earths get blocked from export again.

In the meantime climate change ETFs are only going in one direction and that is up as they have done so all year. Pensana and rare earths are probably not in that kind of ETF but one day they may be and the companies all big enough to have an ETF of their own.

Tony

Iodan1

The worse case is a 10% pull back on gold miners (CEY double bottom on 101p) and 5%-7.5% on gold (1795-1800 being a possible floor). If the pullback happens we get a good rally into August and September. Otherwise CEY 108p intraday and gold 1850 if it holds is how I see it. Tony

Correct 107.4 to 108.3p. Centamin sometimes ignores gaps below 0.5p so it just might get closed.

Rising strong support line from the 101p low is in the vicinity of 109p to 109.5.p

On stand-by for chart gap to be back filled aligned short positions to close with the chart gap. Hoping for a rally afterwards above 120p with no gaps in the stock chart. Gap is sufficient enough to pull in back filling at some point.

New support and resistance lines are being constructed so we know the 178-184 has strong resistance along with 170-172p area. The first line of support is at 158p and would be constructive to hold the line here.

Hogsnipe

See it all before. In April I had Synairgen drop from 180p and eventually bottomed at 96p and yesterday it closed at 171p after touching 182 area. Eventually the shorting stops and the project value recovers. What has actually changed from before. We had a correction in rare earth metal prices but they are still much higher than 2020 and are likely to go higher by 2023-2024 when Pensana is a producer. The west economies need to have their own secure supply chain. When Synairgen hit 96p I bought shares and when it passed my average price i sold them and enjoyed a much lower pool average price. I will do the same thing again on Pensana. Unless the world decides it no longer cares about climate change and dependency on China for everything I would say the need for the Pensana business operation is very strong. Tony

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2021/06/02/chinas-journey-to-the-center-of-the-earth/?sh=5a02024d131f

Unfortunately not Bwana. If they increase the short by just over 50% it will be over 0.5% of all shares and then short tracker website will name the hedge fund. I suspect they will close the short later in the summer when all the government green agenda plans actually happen. The chancellors programme identified in March only begins to roll out in part in July and may only get underway proper in September. The company plans realistically fit in with the government support programmes. It may be running later than some of us thought, but in fact the scale of the project is quite big. It will be worth it in the end as all the plant and Capex will be invested with best management models and plans. In the meantime we know this will unfold into a great project. Tony

Thanks Bwana in getting all this information and for sharing it all with us.

Skulker

I have written to the company and hopefully they will send a reply that is of some help.

The share closed strongly on Friday and was sold into this morning. It does not make a lot of sense. May was the first month since the London listing we had no meaningful RNS. Hopefully we get some kind of update soon. The company is required to notify us of meaningful insider knowledge that may affect the share price. It could be that we are just waiting for decisions to be agreed and made.

The 14 million shares traded is the total from when the share price was last at 180p in April.

https://public.ortex.com/features/shorts/

I got a free go on visiting the site and I have shared what it said. o.61 days to cover 0.33% of free float stock or thereabouts and those share numbers.

According to Ortex the short interest currently is 466,100 on Pensana. The total shares traded in Pensana in the last 6 weeks is around 14M in its entirety. At some point the short will have close. It was increased 40,000 a week ago.

Peak will have to agree a minimum of 16% ownership, 6% Royalties and VAT rebate to offset corporation taxes with the Tanzanian government so they have some challenging issues. The Tanzanian Government is highly sensitive to environmental impact. The company is operating a different MREC so although they import more tonnage for processing the costs are currently higher than Pensana and they are hoping to overcome it by scale up and neither are they focussed on recycling. Pensana is highly geared to EU market where as Peak is perhaps looking to USA export. The UK government probably sees a merger between the two if they both arrive on the market to deliver 12.5% of global output than just 5% proposed by Pensana. Having two plants and two major feedstock fields would make it a big FTSE 100 company on the scale of a Fresnillo. I therefore do not see this as an issue going forward. What we need is an update from Pensana on how their review of financing is progressing and a better view when this big project will commence.

Amun / Ptah: Detailed review of the geological database indicates that there is approximately400koz of inferred material located close to existing underground mining infrastructure in the Amun and Ptah areas of the underground. A programme is underway to upgrade the classification of this material with the aim of supporting an assessment of its potential for mining. Given this material's proximity to existing underground infrastructure, if ore delineated can be quickly brought into the mine schedule, not only increasing the reserve base, but improving operational flexibility with limited development costs. (This is where my 150,000 ounces I mention earlier comes from being converted from inferred to proven reserves).

On a more serious note we have a rising support line on 5 minutes, 15 minute and 30 minute charts and the 5 hourly is trying to put in a bottom. If we close on 112p-113p, the hourly has a rising support line as well.

After lockdown release for the first time my wife and I got to eat out in the afternoon in a restaurant with all the trimmings. I return sated to find my 96.xp synairgen order has gone in. 9 days later the stock is on 170p. The moral of the story is to eat out more with adult beverages and just leave buy and sell orders on to get hit.

Guilty of adding another 10,000 bought at 111p this morning. Another 8p off the average. The shares are being given away. Some outfit like BP may come along and say we want to buy the whole lot and will 275p a share price tickle your fancy.