On the previous link.
Https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-04-18/ross-norman-golds-mystery-buyer
I agree with this article. Few minutes read.
So glad I averaged down when it was 9.4p. Still time tomorrow to pile more in.
The miss was mainly on earnings in Q1 that were around $23M or 1.7p a share. Allowing for the 104,000 it was probably 4,000-5,000 on what some may have expected. This would verify a 5p drop that we observed. The main issue is how long the low grade ore was being mined this month (feed grade at open pit needs to increase 0.21g/t which is a big ask. If the grade improvement happens in May then April production would be 33,000 ounces instead of 40,000 and they would lose 1/6th of the profit from current higher prices in gold. This later metric gives a pull back figure to say 123p. The other risk building up is that may not be able to hit the high end projections for the year being forecast.
Well I did the same thing as LOAM and have no Nanoco shares in ISA and everything in a trading account. Maintaining a new rule of no AIM like companies in ISAs after recent good returns. Have no idea what will happen with this one, but can sit on it for another year.
We will soon find out if the market likes or dislikes the lipstick applied to the piggy.
It shows the vulnerability of gold miners trying to keep up with gold. If the physical market can not take miners produced gold then the paper market has messed things up. All about taking physical delivery of what they produce.
I thought this might happen with everything leaning to Q4 again. The base line for Centamin is around 102p with this rally up from 93p. Everything above is dependent on the gold price holding and production levels returning. The AISC is still higher than expected. Centamin will take a hit this morning.
I am still waiting to see what happens with the gold options closing on 25 April. Whoever bought them in the rally has to take physical delivery. We also get to see where the delivery goes if taken.
Lewis
We both know a nickel mine is very different to a rare earth mine construction. HZM was not the only nickel mine closed in construction, several others got mothballed and you probably know why.
The answer from ordinary population masses is nothing. It is all about elite power and few who get everything out of it and leave the cost to everyone else. I grew up during the Vietnam War and saw older teenagers in my street in Illinois drafted in to fight that war. The posturing between Israel leadership and Iranian leadership if it leads to war is about as disgusting as to what happened in Vietnam. Fingers cross that peaceful alternatives win the day.
Lewis you know what the hold up reasons are likely to be.
1. Current depression on rare earth prices as China dumps on the global market.
2. Net Zero progress has slowed down because of inflationary impacts which hopefully are stabilising.
3. Interest rates have not declined yet.
4. Liquidity regarding banks on new projects that are not backed up with an on-going source of income despite off take agreements.
5. Poor political leadership as they are happy to have supply chains still reliant on China supply despite they are needed for their own National defence.
6. Geopolitical in that the mine is based in Africa and not within USA or the EU.
China would finance the mine build in full tomorrow if they received all the rare earths produced from the LJ mine and no supply was sold to Western countries.
What makes me feel ill is that the UK wasted more money trying to send a few people to Rwanda than the entire cost of the Pensana mine project and probably most of what was needed for Saltend. Tony
3 bear,
The rally was very stable up to 20 March. Beyond that time frame it started to become over extended and not just a spring seasonal rally. On 2 April the rally was approaching $2300 spot price which should have been a top with a 14.5% rise but then it started to go parabolic. The momentum then hit 17% rise at 2350 spot price where only a handful of rallies have surpassed this. The peak was around 20%. The rally started on 12 February. Central banks (especially India and China were behind the move from 12 February to 29th February) and published data of late shows this was the case.
The concern some of us have is that the rally was taken over by Options traders and they have to take physical delivery on 25th April. I therefore believe the answer to your question will soon reveal itself. My belief is that part of the rally is permanent and it needs to retreat to a level to attract buying in the physical market for delivery. Over the course of 2024 we may get more rallies and pull backs. The jewellery market has to restock gold at a price where they can sell it later on and it just takes time for the physical market to absorb increases. Otherwise we get bear markets in gold later on. Tony
Good news for the longer term.
Gold has been taken higher again tonight and all the overbought on daily and weekly were returned as they were before at the peak on Friday. What I am concerned about is what kind of bad news will soon unfold and be shared with the general public.
Tibbs if Israel does something stupid, the West alliance will not follow the Israeli Prime Minister down his new rabbit hole.
Strongest support lines are at 2010, 2047 and at 2119.
2332 is the standard deviation support line.. 2320 and 2311 are additional support lines. We have to see how well the market in gold holds up if they get challenged which I think is likely.
Https://www.aiinsightmedia.com/rare-earth-metals-ai-semiconductor/
Https://www.aiinsightmedia.com/rare-earth-metals-ai-semiconductor/