Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Barnyards,

With respect to the sp projections 15p, 20p, 30p by next week etc - is it not time to post the link to your Billy Connolly Training video as a bit of a refreasher?

Pretty interesting - nice summaries of the varies fields in Canada.

Also Serenity closes with “operator appointed” -
Is this new - have I3E previously announced this??

Fair dealer,

When I said linked I was not necessarily saying the fields were connected (although they may be) - I was suggesting that I3E’s current plan is a based on Repsol Sinopec whether connected or not - the economics of a joint development appear to be a no brainer.

As far a determining a Unitized field - my understanding is that this must be settled prior to the OGA providing consent for a field development.

I think most of us agree that Serenity is linked to the Tain Project which is supposed to be targeting drilling a couple of producers next year - so a likely scenario is utilization of the same rig - Tain Proceeds - Serenity Proceeds. If tain doesn’t proceed then I think as current plans stand - this affect Serenity.

Up until a few months ago - a farm out was the only option and we were probably completely at the mercy of partners. This is not the case now - with I3E forecasting unencumbered cash of over $66m by the end of 22 - then I think more options are open to us.

I think theres still time to make a decision on Tain / Serenity and drill next year. But there will come a time within the next couple of months if commitments are not met - then the program will have to be pushed back / reviewed for a later date - at this later date we have more options.

Your correct - there have been a couple of farm outs during this period but has there been any development / production projects approved since Cambo / COP26.

Someone pointed out here another Shell Project that’s in limbo due to rejection of the Enviromental Impact Statement - I’m not sure that anyone knows what the new Environmental requirement / checks entail.

Bottom line is I think we could be waiting another month or two before we hear whether Serenity Proceeds next year.

Yo-yo,

They can only announce news when there is news - I can think we can safely say that as they have said nothing - the counterparty is still to confirm the funds or atleast a start date for the project.

Cambo was an undoubted set back for the North Sea. Is it reasonable to expect I3E to have forecasted this?

Putting my self in their shoes and trying to think I would do - I would be sitting tight and see which way the wind blows - I certainly wouldn’t be gambling £20m on an appraisal well for a project that may not proceed.

I also wouldn’t want to be the 1st Oil Company after Cambo to announce a project and have half a dozen green peace activists camped outside your offices.

What do you think they should do right now?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-north-sea-oil-fields-may-go-ahead-if-they-cut-imports-q92ppznxs

My guess is there is 50 / 50 chance that Serenity gets pushed back whilst operators survey the investment landscape.

The current policy is of maximizing economic gain from the NS - I can see this disappearing and replaced with an environmental checklist including whether we need to import oil and gas which of course we do - makes no sense at all to be shutting down the NS and import our energy unless the economics don’t stack up.

I think Shells Cambo decision was partly economics with a good dose of cop 26 sprinkled on top.

Cambo were deep wells with all new infrastructure in a particularly harsh area of the NS. Serenity / Tain are shallow wells next to existing infrastructure.

Fortunately I3E as per the latest update can do quite nicely without Serenity. They will need to make a decision sometime in the not too distant future - no point in having a UK office with all the associated expense if we don’t have UK operations.

Joe,

Not sure at all the point of your post - for a start I’m probably not the only one that didn’t click immediately that you were actually referring to some other companies update which you go on to say may or may not be a partner with I3E in the upcoming drills - so nothing new there just speculation on your part. And it really doesn’t matter - the important bit is 17 wells.

Not sure what your comment about Graham and Majid means - its just an odd comment full stop. Confirmation bias is an issue no matter who you are listening to. If want to learn something about I3E I know who I’d be listening to !

With regards to this error that you keep pointing out - it was not really material to the point I was making which was that the new wells are expected to be significantly more productive than some of the earlier wells drilled by I3E. Also you would have a bit of egg on your face if the production number i3e refer to is gross and not net.

With regards to your comment on the wells not being a rip roaring success - I3E have given their projection which I’m inclined to think is likely to be more accurate than any number you could hazard (or me for that matter). Baytex gave an update in September on their Clearwater Drilling and showed some well producing at over 700 boepd so anything is possible.

Joe,

Looked at your 8th Dec email - still makes no sense so perhaps you should enlighten the bb here.

What I have noticed is you trying to score points over me - which is ok - just make sure you have a point to score - so far personally I’m not seeing it .

“The fact that only two are operated by others suggests that there could be hesitation with the 4 Rubelite wells.”

Please explain Joe - I cannot be the only one trying to understand what this means.

https://themarketherald.ca/i3-energy-plc-tsxite-announces-2022-canadian-capital-programme-dividend-2021-12-20/

Great Interview - what's happened to Majid ?

Couple of things that caught my eye:

19,000 -10% (2000) + 5000 = 22,000 aprox. I think they are being conservative with their projected peak 2022 production of 21,000.

Also 5250 / 17 = 300 boepd this is more than some of the recent wells they have drilled but less than some of the gushers that baytex drilled in clearwater (600 boepd or more). Given that i3e are normally quite conservative with their numbers - hopefully there is room for a beat here given that they have reviewed all 500+ of their potential drilling targets and "high graded them"

And a few people mentioned Serenity of the lack thereof but what about the 20,000 boepd Simonette development. They did mention drilling atleast 1 well in Simonette - taking 1 and 1 and coming up with 5 - are they trying to demonstrate the potential of Simonette to a potential farm in partner. Could we get a Simonette development in the next few months ?

Investor,

Not sure you were right - the biggest change was WTI - this was about $82 when they gave the update in October - it’s now $67. Gas prices are still pretty strong and they have some good hedges in place. I still think they will meet or exceed those earlier projections with slightly higher oil prices than current not to mention the increase in production.

Are they back on production at PTAL - is the riot over?

I thinks it extremely positive to be able to fund through existing cash / cash flows. Debt will be available to help fund other and perhaps bigger projects.

We also expect another update shortly i.e. another operational update that should also contain some positive news.

All in all I think an excellent update.

“No ref to anyone. The bigger the holding you have, the more likely you are to try and manipulate trading decisions of others with strident messages.”

Is this a fundamental truth or is this your opinion? This is a BB geared towards I3E investors - perhaps some people just enjoy discussing i3e and sharing there investment thesis and perhaps trying to learn a thing or two from others in the process !

“I've been criticized on here in the past for being negative when just giving balanced responses.”

Well here is the rub Nomad - everyone on here thinks they are right and giving BALANCED responses (unless they are deliberately trying to mislead) - I guess we’ll just have to pay more attention to your posts in the search for the truth !

GGG,

A little touchy !! Just skimped through your post - a bit of a rant if you ask me and not much substance to respond to.

I sold myself short in an earlier post - my thesis has pretty much always been the same - that is that valuations are driven by the near term cash generation - not reserves but Cash Flows. So come up with a CF estimate , apply a suitable multiple and hey presto - theirs your SP target. This is the opinion of WHI and also Nine Point Capital and is something I buy into.

I think your mixing up SP projection with Thesis. If you follow Eric Nuttall you will have heard him repeat the fact that share prices are cheaper now than they were a year ago as a ratio of Cash Flow. How’s this possible - well it’s clear that investors are currently not prepared to pay the same multiples
For a shares they did a year ago - presumably because of COP 26, ESG etc. Most of us know this to be true because we have seen the SP fail to keep up with the rise in Oil and Gas Prices.

So to put it simply for you - if all the fish and chip shops in your town are selling Haddock and a Large Chips for somewhere between £2.00 and £3.80 the new player in town (I3E) need to be selling his lunch for something in this range which is what they are doing roughly (£1:80). They can only charge more once they are seen by the market to offer an premium product.

So this is essentially what I have done - adjust my multiples in line with the market rate. How can I be projecting an SP for I3E of 26p when the very best Companies in the space are at 21p. Are you saying that I3E is the best Oiler in Canada?

So my current SP projection - I would take the mid point of the range I calculated earlier ie 15 to 16p for our situation as it stands today.

GGG,

With regards to Tullow - I’ll eat a small piece of humble pie - but only a small piece. My point was that UK Aim Oilers in general dont report FCF outside of the interim and full year reports. Tullow was probably the only company you found - it was the only company I could find and I checked quite a few companies including Block Energy, Echo Energy , Serica Energy etc. So criticizing a Company for not reporting a metric that most of its peers don’t is a bit harsh and I think there’s a good reason they don’t do it but as you love to criticize management ok - go ahead.

With regards to debt - I thought Majid was quite eloquent and clear - it just wasn’t available yet you keep on talking about the structure of the deal - so I think to most reasonable people you were just plain wrong.

You also said that the price would be a anchored to 11p which has been reasonably accurate and more
accurate than my original projection. I don’t think your reasoning is 100% accurate - you said it will be due to institutions flipping shares and profit taking - I3E and the brokers have said this is not the case and Institutions are holding and if correct we’ve had more than enough churn to clear out retail overhang. That’s why I have re-looked at valuations and compared to the best metrics which imo is Canadian Peers which I think is a better explanation for the current SP.

I try to tell it as it is GGG and try not to make **** up. Have a good evening and try not to take it too personally.

GGG,

It absolutely does matter what your average is - your telling people you lost your ass when the truth is that you have doubled your money.

On valuation - I didnt say 20p by Christmas, but I’m also not too proud to change my thesis / valuation if the data / market has changed and I think it has. One of the things I’ve looked at is valuations in Canada -ive said that we are cheap (1.8x ev/cf) but there are other Companies valued at very similar so I don’t think I’m at arguing it both ways at all - I’m telling you that the valuation is within the range albeit towards the bottom - that’s not too hard to understand is it?

On debt - I didn’t want to comment to avoid another argument with you on a public forum - but since you’ve asked - I think your nuts with the debt you want I3E to load up - another $60m on top of $35m ($95m ????!). FFS - you gambled on NCCL with all the red flags and now you want I3E to load up on debt. Have you tried Las Vegas?

cmcc,

I’m in a similar boat to you - underwater so I can understand some frustration - whether it’s fully justified Or not is another question.

GGG is not in that boat. Also anyone that jumped in when the share spiked to over 16p from around 11p in very short order - well your rolling the dice and have to accept the consequences good or bad.

There’s a certain element of dilution and profit taking in way the sp has behaved but I think that has been overplayed - if you read the article from Nuttall I posted earlier - were not the only Canadian Oiler priced at bargain basement prices.

GGG,

You’ve told everyone prior to your latest buying that you had 3-4m shares at an average of around 5p. We’re now at 10.6p - how is that loosing your xxx famously - seriously ?