Member Info for tonynorstrom1

CMC,

I am:

EMO - I’ve traded in and out and made some money. Would have made more if I’d stayed in. I like the story, the CEO and Doc’s research is top notch. I plan to jump back in If I can find the funds and hold for a significant rerate.

OYL - speculative and could do very well - I don’t plan to buy.

GASX - I like the story - NAT Gas - transition fuel. Historically Strong gas prices in Columbia and forecasted to be in short supply in the years to come. They’re running a little late with start of production but CEO has a track record of delivery and is also a big buyer of the stock on the open market. I own and plan to add more if I can find the funds.

NBLC - Copper and Gold Play. A little speculative but could be very big - same CEO as EMO -
An impressive guy. I may buy in - I’m in the process of trying to get Hargreaves Landsdown to add it to the platform.

Hope you had a good weekend and let’s hope that PC Bots is not reading or else we will get reprimand for straying off topic !

Someone asked for my numbers on the ADVFN board so I will include here also:

https://twitter.com/tonynorstrom/status/1480120892550266886/photo/1

Tain mentioned in last paragraph:

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/377010/covid-case-confirmed-on-repsol-sinopec-vessel/#:~:text=The%20vessel%20is%20also%20slated%20to%20host%20a%20tieback%20for%20the%20proposed%20Tain%20development%2C%2012%20miles%20away%2C%20though%20while%20its%20field%20development%20plan%20has%20been%20approved%2C%20a%20final%20investment%20decision%20on%20the%20project%20appears%20to%20have%20been%20delayed.

Cenkman,

I have got into a couple if scrapes recently - but its only a couple of people and it tends to be with people such as yourself who spread as you call it "ad Hominems". Some people may not like my style - but I do tend to back it up with links or alternatively state where the research comes from - so it not made up like some on here

Everyone is entitled to their opinion even me. The comment where you were shot down (not by me as it happens) was your jibe on Management Credibility. On communications - you incorrectly asserted that I had questioned i3e's communications skills - I hadn't - you did - I don't put words into other peoples mouths to try and back up a shaky assertions.

Toad - you need to practice what you preach calling people hyper critical nutters and to get over themselves.

You brought up BP - whether you bought in 2020 or 2000 - it’s a pretty poor in stock.

I don’t think that I have insulted you personally - just mentioned when I think your comments are off base.

Cenkman,

Youve spent a lot of time digging up information - but there’s little to no analysis - after all the gumf you’ve posted - no one is any the wiser how I3E compares valuation wise to its peers in your analysis.

You are correct - there’s a lot of metrics you can look at but the most important is cash generation / profitability. It’s the reason why Eric Nuttall focuses on it an why WHI said they are switching to CF multiples for valuation purposes rather than net asset values / discounted cash flows.

I didn’t say I3E was unclear in its communications - you’ve said this. I think they have been quite clear including a definition of FCF which was crystal clear - I just didn’t agree with it.

You made a comment about Management Credibility a while ago which I half agreed with but you were shot down and quite rightly in my view. I think you said that their credibility was costing them $200m in market CAP. Credibility is part of the reason why Kistos and Kelt are valued so highly. Where i disagreed is that I don’t think it’s a case of I3E having no credibility - I think the’re in the process of building credibility as wealth creators - it takes time and I think they will get there if they keep doing what there doing and I3E should rerate along the way.

Mini - great find - some good information.

Toad,

I’m here to try to learn something new and also to pass on factual information - not to make friends.

I’m not looking for recognition - I believe in I3E and if other do also after hearing proper research - we all gain.

You said that what you have posted is factual - BP is about £3.50 as of today. 20 years ago it was £5:00 !!. I think you need to get over yourself and hopefully not too many people pay attention to what you say for their own financial health!

Toad,

I have a significant holding in I3E and if you post misleading or bum information - I’m going to call you out!

You mention BP - it’s laughable - 20 years ago it was £5 / share. Must be one of the worst investments in Oil and Gas other than stocks that have gone completely tits up - whats your point !

And you posted some nonesense about Baytex the other day - it was not worth responding to.

Road -

“disappointing to see it stagnant while most other oilers are significantly up...”

It’s misleading and it’s rubbish - I cannot help it if your under researched !

CaneToad,

I do not know whether your statement is correct - I suspect it is not but to be honest I have not tracked it.

However, there was a post by Darcyslaw on that CEO website about a week ago - he’s a pretty well researched and knowledgeable investor - he made the comment that I3E was up 25% over the month whilst the basket of other Canadian Oil Companies he tracks we mainly flat.

Cenkmen,

The trouble with FCF is that it’s a Non GAAP measure and not all Companies Calculate it the same. For example i3e deduct all Capex to come up with FCF so would report a lower number than other Companies that just deduct maintenance Capex which is a more logical definition IMO. Eric Nuttal looks at the ratio Enterprise Value to CF (EV/CF). CF appears to be the same as I3E’s NOI and what most other Canadian companies report as Funds Flow from operations. So it looks like you have all the numbers to calculate EV/CF and rank the Companies.

I noticed KELT in your list which had very similar production / production mix to i3e several months back although I note they have since added a couple of thousand barrels. This was the closest Company to I3E that I have come across and trade at about 3.8x I3E’s market cap. If I3E traded at just 1/2 Kelts MC we would be at about 26p.

The other thing is that many companies highlight “liquids” v “gas”. Not all liquids are created equal and in fact at today’s prices I3E’s NGL’s attract almost the same price per bbl as gas which is a little less than half the price of Oil.

If I3E were to pull off Serenity and get that into production - personally I cannot see why we wouldn’t have a similar or better rating than KELT which should put us North of 50p.

It seems a long way off at the moment - but that’s where the raw numbers suggest we ought to be heading.

CaneToad - how so ?

Cenkman,

If you looking for appreciation - have you considered doing a stint at the local soup kitchen?

With regards to your research - it’s a good start but you’ve really only quoted raw data with no analysis. For example - take the 1st Company you mention - Cardinal Energy - 19500 boepd approx - nearly 17,000 of that is oil - how does that relate to
I3e which produces about 4500 bopd approx of oil - I don’t see how you correlate value at all when your just looking at market cap and net debt - how are you determining which stock is cheapest??

Some here just like to have a good old moan. Majid words were “they expect to announce a FO by the end of the year”. So it was a forecast that didn’t happen - and for those that missed it - New Year was yesterday and Monday and Tuesday are holidays - so the proper time to address the matter is in the coming week or weeks - I3E are playing it by the book. If there had been any change in the status of the project - I3E would have announced.

I think spike was spot on - Cambo has given the industry pause for thought so the delays whilst disappointing are entirely understandable.

The good news is that development wells are still happening:

https://www.google.com/search?q=southwark+spudding&prmd=insxv&tbas=0&source=lnt&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjTrICpo5L1AhVHhlwKHdKUDoIQpwV6BAgCEA4&biw=375&bih=553&dpr=2

So from I3E’s perspective - Serenity is still very much on - the timing is a little uncertain as the current plan is “with partners” - who evidently have not confirmed funding yet. I think it is also noteworthy that Repsol have not yet announced a decision on FID (Tain) which is 6 months overdue. It would have been very easy for them to cancel Tain in the last month or so in the current environment which th Rey haven’t done which says to me Tain is still on.

So looking into mystic megs ball - I expect an announcement in the next month confirming a Farm Out to Repsol and if this doesn’t happen then one saying the Project is pushed back up to a year when I3E will make a decision on going it alone or proceeding with alternative partners.

And in the meantime we have all this news from Canada expected in the coming months - not a lot to moan about in my book!

Happy New Year to everyone and let’s hope that we see the rerate that most of us think I3E warrants !

I think you’ll be by yourself there yo-yo . Serenity was a forecast / plan just like the 2022 drilling plan - I think most of us want to know what the plan is / what their aiming for.

Royoboy,

Your semi literate - no one listens to you - give it up!

“You normally talk on here boring us…..”. Who is us - are you representing anyone? As far as I can see your the village idiot - as I said before - give it up!

Hey and viva I3E !!!

Nomad,

I think you hit the nail on the head with the softening of the forward curve also the price of oil on the days leading up to the previous forecast was over $80 , plus gas was pretty strong to.

I’ve plugged the numbers into my spread sheet and past and present forecasts look reasonably consistent adjusting for the price of oil.

The idiots back!