Member Info for tonynorstrom1

CaneToad,

Your probably a little bit irritated with me for “trashing BP”. In not trashing it and It should be noted that I didn’t bring it up - you did inviting comment. It’s an interesting mini case study to put BP side by Side with i3e and see where your money is better invested.

The 1st thing I look at whenever someone tips a stock is the charts - short term , long term and see what that tells me. Pull up BP and that tells me it’s been In long term decline for 25 years. With I3E - interesting blip in the beginning with Liberator, collapse and then what appears to be a sustainable uptrend as they execute their Canadian Strategy.

Then I ask myself can the Company reverse the trend in the case of BP or maintain the trend in the case of I3E. I think big oil has its work cut out - I don’t see BP turning it around - in 25 years they’ve struggled what’s going to change. I can see a path forward with I3E growing production in Canada without the protests that you see with big oil projects like Cambo.

I look at debt - I3E wins hands down - net cash whereas BP Billions of Dollars of Debt.

I look at the dividend - I think in recent years this has been the attraction of Companies like BP. However, I3E’s dividend is larger and arguably safer. I3e can grow the dividend through production growth - BP I think can only do it via oil prices.

I looks at stability and predictability of earnings, arguably I3E wins on this score also - 400 hundred plus low decline wells in a stable regulatory environment. I3e spoke about it in a recent podcast - ie that I3E exhibited some blue chip traits.

Personally I cannot think of a reason why you would hold BP over I3E - but perhaps my rose tinted glasses are too rose tinted. Interested to hear your thoughts.

Deeko - interesting comment - please explain!

I still don’t see the relevance of the BP comment because you’ve already previously mentioned the timing of your investment in BP which is the same for any stock - Enron was a terrific investment at one time if you got in and out at the right time same with Northern Rock.

Anyway I don’t think you quoted my last comment on BP correctly which was if you look at a chart - it’s been terrible over 20yr, 10yr, 5yr and not too great over 2 years also.

I’m a little unsure on your I3E comment - are you in or have you made a short term trade and back out again.

Trading is ok - but very few people make money CONSISTENTLY at it - it’s quite a skill. I’m happy to try find the right stocks and stick with them. I’m in a handsome profit now with I3E and it looks well set to be more of the same.

What’s the relevance of the BP comment - you sold out and switched into I3E?

I must say i'm with olderandwiser and spike on this one - they've already set out their dividend policy and its hard to make it progressive if you keep bumping it up. They're also laid out what they plan to do with any excess cash - special distributions , buybacks , addition capex etc which they can determine as and when they have the excess cash. The dividends they've paid out to date have already gone beyond the 30% of free cash flow in anticipation of strong future FCF.

One thing on my mind especially as the SP is showing signs of coming back to life is buy backs and whether they should be done sooner rather than later - if they believe the SP has a good chance of doubling in the near future then a buyback now would be much cheaper than one 6 months from now. It all depends on their plans which they have not fully shared yet. They seem to have made all the right moves so far - I fully expect them to continue to make the right moves - I think we all need to have a little patience.

That I think is already I3E’s policy i.e. to pay out a progressive dividend. I don’t recall if it is stated on the readmission document - but it’s definitely something Majid has repeated in several interviews.

I think Malcy should settle for a piece of humble pie instead like Oilman Jim and go ahead and write the article!

You had me there until you mentioned “Malcy” That’s the guy that has steadfastly refused to run his rule over I3E for more than a year all because they have refused to stump up for a burger and chips.

Do you rate his analysis ?

thanks Nomad

Kudos to you Pirate - so what's your next tip ?

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/379275/uk-climate-advisers-to-publish-guidance-on-new-oil-and-gas-licensing/

Can anyone copy paste the article - i've reached my limit on free articles on this site .

Thanks Harel - not looking for another Oil stock in particular and want to keep somewhat on message here otherwise we will have the board police moaning again.

I felt Oyl was fair game as a few i3e regulars here have followed Doc into a couple if his plays including Oyl and someone was asking about it here a few days ago. Based on Doc'c track record - any stock he mentions is worth a look at even if you decide it doesnt tick the boxes for you..

regards

Harel,

I've I good mind to post your response on the CEO site to give the Doc something to chew on. I think his response way out of order and he does have a bit of form for shooting down views contrarian to his own.

However, you've got to give him his due - he research is usually very good and his investments equally so. He identified EMO, i3e, GASX and others well before the crowd and made a lot of money. EMO for example is a 12-15 bagger from his original investment.

Harel,

I resposted your comments on the CEO board (and credited you). This is the response I got from the Doc :

"@Drjimjones @tonynorstrom please do some fact checking before posting something as stupid and inaccurate as that. I thought you were more Thorough then just post mindless heresay. Fec total liabilities q3 1.3 billion Oyl 67 million…. Bigggggggggg difference in enterprise value… and debt . Your post is very misleading and why I strive to teach other dd. Do better please.

Learn proper analysis. So many inaccuracies in your post."

In a addition I got a private message to say he's now blocking me for posting misleading information. A bit of an over-reaction imo - but your view on Oyl is clearly not shared by the Doc.

And on a more positive note - i3e on the TSX Canadian exchange has been stronger the last couple of days and closed today at 24.5c (14.2p)

Neil - your inventing a risk that is not there. Even in the extracts you are quoting - the "reset" is the exercise price of the warrants and not the quantity. Your interpretation is not even logical. I think the outstanding shares and warrants are clearly set out in the year end report.

I'm just waiting for further translation services from Giltedge - our resident multilingual Investment expert. He appears to be the perfect contrarian indicator. The indicator is now showing load up !

Thanks - let me know if you have any thoughts on GASX or NBLC - should I be loading up ?

If they were to drill alone (which they will shortly be able to do) and prove up the oil - I imagine there would be no shortage of partners for a development. They would also then have the option to sell.

So many options open to I3E now that they have the cash - no rush in my view on Serenity now that that they have several transformative options in Canada.

One option as I mentioned weeks ago is if no partner - put on ice for 6 months or so, build the cash and assess the North Sea Macro environment then.

A worst case senario imo would to be to give up on the NS and concentrate on Canada and that would not be bad at all - shut down the UK office and reduce costs !

Spike,

I have to say - I'm with GGG on this one. My understanding is that they only need 1 drill to prove up to 50 mmboe (2 or more to prove up the full 100mmboe). One drill comes in at around $18m - they are forecasting to have $66m of unencumbered cash by year end - thats all the bills paid including dividends and capital programs and $66m in free cash to play with. Does not seem like a huge gamble considering the prize (hundreds of millions of $).

I also think the market and going to love it ! Preference is for a partner - but if there isnt one - lets go !!

A little birdie tells me that the Tain FID timeline / deadline has been pushed back to Q3 (2022). Make of that what you will.