Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Seems the little “bird” I spoke to has good ears

http://newsnow.co.uk/share?u=https%3A//www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/384279/repsol-sinopec-tain/&sgt=shv2&sg=94e2079c&sid=3

I think your being a tad harsh - I think you should take a step back , put yourself in Majids shoes and take a long walk. Worst case scenario is you have his shoes and he’s more than a mile away.

and this is going to help support NAT Gas prices going forward:

https://biv.com/article/2022/01/lng-canada-project-construction-kicking-high-gear

Nomad,

You've said this before and you might be right - but in my opinion - you are wrong. Eric Nuttall will be looking at total returns - if he sees a Company that he thinks is cheap enough (i3e is cheaper than anything in his portfolio) and pays a decent dividend (i3e is currently about a 7% yield - a few companies in his portfolio have not resumed paying dividends yet as they are still paying down debt) and are looking at share buybacks (i3e have said this is now on the cards and I personally expect to see this sooner rather than later) - then I think he's going to buy.

The problem i3e has at the moment is that it is still a little on the small side for him to take a meaningful stake - but I think were gaining scale fast.

I also thinks its a rule of thumb and not cast in stone - the main reason being that larger Companies don't have significantly large growth catalysts to move the needle - hence his saying that "Investors are not paying for growth and therefore companies should return a bigger % of free cash flow to shareholders.

i3e believe this is not the case with them - they have sufficiently attractive growth opportunities that they think they can achieve better shareholder returns by a combination of dividends, buybacks, drilling and acquisitions. They still have to prove this of course but the graph is looking promising.

Olderandwiser,

Not sure I 100% agree with you - if you recall in one of the recent interviews, Graham said that only about 6% of the share capital is traded on the Canadian TSX exchange so its quite important what investors in the UK think. Also many companies on the UK exchanges including the FT100 don't have operations so the UK is used to dealing with and valuing overseas operations

Also referring to Eric Nuttall - i3e has been in the past too small for his fund to invest in and take a meaningful stake. Its only in the last 4-5 months we have grown production to 20,000 boepd so we might now be approaching the minimum scale for i3e to pop up on his radar - even now we are quite small for his fund - as a reference Taramack Valley is one of his core holdings and has a market cap of over $1B (CAD) which he considers as a small cap.

Encouragingly Eric Nuttall believes small cap Oils is the most promising sector from an Investment perspective - we keep growing and we have to be on his radar.

I don't have an average for all Canadian O&G - I look at the numbers that Eric Nuttall provides for the Companies within his fund which he has said fairly recently trade at between 2 to 3x CF (ave 2.5 I think)

There will obviously be some companies outside of his fund that trade at lower multiples (though I dont think any companies better than i3e and probably not many of them in anycase) and equally there are other Companies such as KELT which trade at substantially higher than 3x CF. So I think 2 to 3 is a good starting point to figure out where i3e should be trading.

Just a couple of notes to go along with the spread sheet below:

1) Production is based on 20460 boepd - this is approximately what i3e are guiding to ye 2022 - I thinks its likely that i3e will top this based on lower than expected declines and better drilling results.

2) Dividend based on 25% of FCF and in the range of 1.14p to 1.34p. So a nice jump up but not the double or triple that one person on here mentioned. Again I think it could be higher than this based on higher production volumes and also i3e paying out slightly higher than 25% . The dividend could double if they paid out 40% of FCF which has been mentioned previously in one of their presentation or the readmission document but as I think they want to maintain a progressive dividend - my guess is that they stick at something around 25% and pay any excess FCF in the form of a special dividend or buyback.

3) Note also that oil is less than 1/4 of volumes but about half of revenues. Thats why Serenity could be such a monster if it were to come on stream at 30,000 bopd. If you convert the 20460 boepd into the equivalent oil - it comes out to 8939 bopd. If we kept half of serenity at 15,000 bopd for example - that triples current revenues!

https://1drv.ms/b/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYMR4K-CCauUGys42Q

CMCC - I saw it - not sure when they announced, I think it was late . The announcement also talked about raising funds and did not talk about the size of the discovery - so it will be interesting to see what it does today after having absorbed the details

Also keeping an eye on NBLC - they recently updated on the latest drilling results which didn't meet some peoples expectations - provides a better entry point as I think it is still an interesting prospect.

The one correction I would make and and a few on here make the same mistake is that the gas price is actually CAD4.50 so about $3.50.

But I’m sure the same mistake happened in the past so the rise in Nat Gas Prices has been healthy and accretive to FCF.

Cenkman,

I think doubling or tripling the dividend is a bit on the ambitious side unless oil & gas moves significantly higher and or production exceeds guidance especially if they want to make it progressive. Have you run the numbers?

All the financial and operational updates including year end and interim reports have dropped almost exclusively at 7am. Only other types of updates have come during the day such as warrants, options and a handful of other subjects.

We’ve not had an operational update in nearly 3 months - a mistake in my view - I’d much prefer to follow the precedent of some other Canadian oilers who provide monthly updates including some who provide a small table showing monthly funds flow, production and month end cash.

The only sensible reason I can see for not providing more regular updates is not having much to report and I would like to think that’s not the case here.

Is today the day?

I wouldn’t want to be out of this over the weekend…………..Did I just say that - lol ??

There will be an update within the week for sure. It looks like they may have moved quarterly “updates” although i don’t recall where they said they were doing this. Last quarterly update was the 26th after the qtr end.

I don’t think there’s any saving Serenity for the qtr update - as soon as there’s anything material - they have to announce.

I think the status on Serenity may be the same , however, I think in the update they have to change the narrative and let everyone know the plan if the 3rd parties are not forthcoming with the funds.

I’m still reasonably hopeful of a decent update - I think there will be lots of good stuff to talk about.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/971608

I3e mentioned.

Hurricane may now be worth a second look!

I’ve seen a slew of 4th quarter reports from Canadian Oilers - I3E’s report has to be dropping any day now.

Reserves is a quite a complicated subject and not a 100% exact science - two reserve auditors with the same data could arrive at slightly different figures.

However talking about Serenity, the structure / topology is reasonably straight forward, talking to an expert on the subject or at least someone that has access to an expert - 1 additional drill should be able to prove up about 50mmboe and a further 1 or 2 drills to prove up the balance of the field.

Tain was projected to come into production 3rd quarter this year - seems unlikely now. If it is established that they are connected - the fields are supposed to be unitized and developed together - would we get a share of the production from Tain and some NS production earlier than many here would be expecting?

Not too heavily invested - typo!

Holy Shot Pete - I hope you were to heavily invested.

Top of Malcy’s bucket list - I guess not big whoppa with extra fries for him today !