Member Info for tonynorstrom1

"I try to post when some important event occurs" - nothing wrong with that but try to keep to the facts. The facts are that the dividend is the same, shareholders get it sooner and and LTH's are not disadvantaged. Anyone saying anything different is peddling a false narrative maybe because they dont understand or perhaps for the benefit of their trading book as highlighted by Mr Barnyards.

Another thing I highlighted but no one has really commented - far from trying to stiff shareholders - i3e have paid out in excess of their stated dividend policy - comments on this ?

I like to keep it real and stick to the facts.

"exactly the way it should be fairdealer" - are these your rules Barnyards - ive not seen you contribute anything useful to this forum other that criticize people for saying to much or being impatient. You don't have anything to say on the investment thesis here. This is the forum to exchange ideas and try to pick up something new correct ?

Barnyards,

Its good to see you posting a little more frequently these days. My understanding is that you are in Management in an AIM oiler so I would be more than happy to stand corrected on the working of dividends - highlight my error and I will eat humble pie if required ! I cannot say fairer than that !

Bots,

Your post is from a slightly different angle so I would just like to comment on that although it is related to payment date versus the financials they are based on.

i3e's policy is to pay out between 20 & 30% of FCF and later on up to 40%. All the dividends they have paid out todate including this upcoming what is effectively the H2 dividend (next 5 monthly payments) - they have paid out significantly in excess of 30% of FCF. They've done this because they have belief in the CF generation of the assets. So far from stiffing shareholders - they have paid out in excess of their policy so far.

This is why I think we will get increases in the reasonably near future - but not as much as some think because now they are going to have to start paying out in accordance with their policy otherwise they are unlikely to have the headroom in future to keep the dividend progressive.

My last post on this subject because its been thrashed to death.

Joe - your conclusion is wrong - when you have a monthly dividend you have 5/6 of the money in your pocket by the time you get your first payment under a bi-annual payment. So the Company actually has the cash for less time in aggregate. This year is a slight oddity in that they decided on this after the start of the year so it is obvious its not possible to pay a dividend in Jan & Feb so the agreed dividend is then paid over the remaining 10 months but increased pro-rata to compensate

Fairdealer - be nice if you posted under the same name on the CEO site and stop trolling me. Historically dividends are normally calculated based on the financials in Annual and Interim report i.e. when a biannual dividend is paid its based on the financials in the period ending about 5 month prior to the dividend payment date. Thats just the way it is or has been!

I'm thinking Jolly gets it but not too may other people by the looks of it.

Had we stuck with the old system - H2 gets declared in April and paid out in May.

With the new system - (still the H2 dividend) but you start getting paid from January with the last payment in June i.e. by May you've already received 5/6 of the H2 dividend where as previously you would be just receiving full payment in May.

Why its fairer to existing holders:

Under the old system you have to be a holder at the record date which I think is maybe april to be entitled to the full H2 divided. i.e. new holders have only held the share for 2 out of the 6 months and are collecting a full 6 months dividend. Monthly dividends eliminate most of that advantage.

Also if you are a LTH - under the old system - if you sell your holding prior to the record date your entitled to none of the H2 dividend i.e. you've held the share for 4 out of the 6 month period and you get no dividend!. Again LTH are better off under monthly dividends if they decide to sell early.

Another way to sense check it :

what's the total dividends paid out in 2022 under the bi-annual system - answer = £11.827 million
what's the total dividends paid out in 2022 under the monthly system- answer = £11.827 million

exactly the same only you start getting paid earlier

It hasnt disappeared anywhere - I think you have forgotten how dividends work. I explained it to another poster about a week ago so if you interested you can go back and read and satisfy yourself that you havent been diddled.

In fact the new arrangment is ever fairer to long time holders !

Onlyforreading,

Your complaint is completely without merit - the monthly divided payment is great for old shareholder and new alike.

Serenity deal is around the corner !

Thanks TSSZ - any chance of cut & paste of the Questor article

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/questor-healthy-profit-rebound-document-manager-restore-underlines/

It seems i3e has been mentioned by Questor again - can someone be kind enough to copy and paste the article - I dont have a subscription to the Telegraph. Also the article below on the North Sea.

This is what I posted a few days ago

"News expected next weeks:

1) update on the sale of gas rights on inactive wells to third party
2) reserves update
3) NOI update
4) Drilling update - how many new wells have they spud - 4 or 5?
5) Work-over update on the 60+ targets they previously identified
6) They previously spoke about some water flooding / enhanced recovery trials they had been doing but this is 6 months back - maybe we hear something about this.
7) Serenity - I personally don't expect a farmout just yet based on the update from Tain but i would expect them putting a firmer timeline on it now that they are on the cusp of having the funds to go solo on a single appraisal well.
8) Will they pull a rabbit out of the bag like last weeks dividend RNS with something totally unexpected ?
9) Oh - i nearly forgot - GGG's financing facility !!"

Item 8 - share price and volume have gone up with no news or apparent catalyst other than we are undervalued and the POO keeps going up. Could i3e have been buying back shares already ?

Items 5 - The recent Podcast from the analyst on Youtube got me thinking about the Cenovus assets and also i3e's capital program. If you take i3e's projection for the added oil due to the Capital Program and divide by the number of wells - the production numbers seemed optimistic based on i3e's own experience on recent wells - possible however as some wells brought online recently by Baytex were producing up to 600 - 800 bopd but still as an average its seemed optimistic. Not all the $47m was earmarked for wells as I3e have pointed out - some was for workovers and I think what we might see is significant production added by the Cenovus assets on some of the +/- 60 workovers that I3e have spoken about.

I think expectation now is pretty high so lets hope for the sake of the SP - i3e deliver !

TSSZ,

37p is the WHI valuation which you obviously seem to agree with / rate. SP = 18.5p v 37p valuation so currently sitting at 50% of their valuation.

I was just looking at JOG - WHI valuation of 622p SP = 147p so sitting at 23% of their fair value estimate. JOG appears to be at a 50% discount to i3e as per WHI. Should we be selling i3e and buying JOG - your thoughts ?

Found the podcast:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcIhdg8U3uM

Click to about 1.01 hrs to get to i3e - any one recognize one of the spread sheets he pulls up.

Interesting comments on the Cenovus Assets & Gain Assests which he appears to know first hand from working in the Oil Patch. As mentioned by Cenkman below - he thinks that with relatively low capital - the Cenovus Assets couple double production. I guess I should have added this to my list of expected news in the update - so far we have heard relatively little about these assets direct from i3e - now they've had time to look at them, im sure we will get to hear some development plans in the Q4 update.

Good find Cenkman!

Cenkman - do you have the link to the Shubham Garg interview?

thanks

Parge,

The H2 Dividend (2021) would normally be announced with the full year 2021 results which get published around April 2022 with the dividend being paid about 1 month later is May 22. The H1 dividend (2022) would be announced with the 2022 interims which would be published in September (2022) with the dividend being paid about a month latter in October.

i3e have taken the unusual and very welcome step of declaring what the minimum payouts would be for dividends paid in 2022 (h2 2021 + h1 2022). They have subsequently said now that these dividends will be paid monthly instead of bi-annually (May & October). So great news in my view and shareholders have not been diddled out of an h2 dividend.

Parge,

This is what they said:

"As previously announced, during the course of 2022 i3 will pay a minimum dividend totalling £11.827 million, representing a 7.1% yield at the closing price on February 2nd. THIS dividend will be divided and paid in 10 equal increments. "

Its pretty clear to me - the previous dividend originally scheduled to be paid out in two installments (in the year 2022) are now going to be paid out in monthly installments over the same period - notice the "THIS" Dividend>

If they were to do what you were implying - it would be double dipping and would not make sense - correct ?

Maestro,

I’m not sure your numbers demonstrate anything - by my calculations Surge paid roughly the same per barrel equivalent as I3E did for the Cenovus assets.

You need to take a look at Surges total production / funds flow and ratio to EV to compare to I3E - maybe a useful exercise.

MMgames - my thoughts:

1) That's some pretty good **** your smoking - where can I get me some?
2) I see a short to medium targets of 19-25p based on what we have now (no new major announcements) and based on i3e rerating to CF multiples of 2 to 2.5x in line with what we see in the Nine Point Capital Portfolio.
3) £2.50-£3.00 - see 1) above
4) If I add in Serenity and 15,000 bopd of production - the spread sheet tells me 60-90p based on CF multiples of 2-3x CF. But this would be 2 to 3 years away and assumes Serenity proceeds in line with what Management have outlined.
5) There are other significant catalysts such as Simonette / Clearwater which could add to the SP.

And the above all assumes that Oil & Gas Prices remain supportive for the next 3-4 years - that's my crystal ball !

Parge - seems like a trick question ! There is no H2 dividend- they've switched to a monthly dividend !?