Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Blackbeard - it’s not really a smart arse comment - it’s an observation. I don’t mind at all spending time share information particularly if it’s not staight forward to get - but I must say lazy gits get right on my tits!

Time to read the posts on here, write one post and then write a response - 10 - 15 mins.

Time required to read the dividend RNS filed quite conveniently by subject on this site 2mins ???

Blackbeard - have you read the RNS - link on this site ?

TSSZ,

The article says "could lose 3m bbl" - so I think you mean shortly. The article also speaks about a 1m bbl fall in demand due to high prices which is contrary to what some have said here.

There's a saying that the cure for high prices is high prices ! That's possibly why we have not shot higher with the very recent spike in oil - Investors are asking themselves how long can prices stay at these levels - nothing would surprise me although I think a more sensible / sustainable level for all parties maybe something in the $80 - $90 range which would still be fantastic for i3e particularly with growing production.

Lets see what today brings.

"EIA: Oil Prices Will Remain Above $100 For Months" - there you go, the experts at the EIA recon above $100 !!

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EIA-Oil-Prices-Will-Remain-Above-100-For-Months.html

I was in the Industry but got locked out of my job for a couple of years due to the Pandemic - thankfully just about to rejoin the workforce in a neighbouring country to SA to work on a heavy oils Project to unlock 100,000 bopd production. So yes there has been underinvestment for quite a few years but its coming back - possibly not as fast as is needed - but lets see.

Crude Inventories rose this week according to the EIA - one data point doesn't make a trend but it will be interesting to monitor this figure over the coming weeks / months.

Well the "expert" didn't say oil prices would be $40 next week - his argument was that high prices are likely to dampen demand and over time this will lead to lower lower prices - it's an entirely logical argument.

Also higher prices are a significant incentive to increase production - this business about taking a year to turn on the taps - just look in our own back yard, i3e is beginning to up production - multiply this by the thousands or tens of thousands of similar Companies around the world and its not hard to see incremental additional supply or is i3e the only Company world wide increasing production ?

High prices are also an incentive to find alternatives to oil and whilst this may be a difficult task - it cannot be doing the case for green energy any harm.

I think the article just highlights the differing opinions and the unpredictability of the POO - the case for oil is quite bullish at present but things can change and change quite quickly.

ok - now you can go ahead and shoot the messenger !

Looks like Bloomberg are drawing their oil experts from the wrong place - the're all on here !

TSSZ,

this guy doesn't agree with you - what do you make of this:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/crude-oil-going-back-40-154932882.html

https://www.whitetundra.ca/pricetargets

this is a link to the full table of 57 stocks - I think I counted 4 that are cheaper on a FCF/EV metric than i3e , a few with a similar valuation and the balance progressively more expensive than i3e. I have asked the author for the average which will be a good metric to measure i3e against - I suspect it will show that we are 10-20% cheaper than the average of the 57 stocks he is following.

Worth a look - gives his SP forecast for various Oilers including i3e. You can find him on youtube also where he goes through his analysis.

https://twitter.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/1503486762571681803

I dont recall you being attacked for saying the SP would climb to 15p, 20p , 25p - many people were saying this including the Company.

I agree with your other Comments though - Oil is still very strong and supports a higher SP than we have right now. I think the SP is finding its feet and currently tends to over react to the macro environment including Ukraine, POO and Covid.

With confirmation of the fundamental via dividends and further news flow from I3E- investors will come to recognize the value and the SP should continue its march north in the short to medium term - patience is required - no share goes vertically up - there are always pullbacks that are actually quite healthy. As the Doc says - know what you own.

When I was projecting a possible SP target - I wasn't using $130 oil - I was plugging in numbers in the $85 to $100 range - you've got to be thinking what the average price of oil and gas will be on a conservative basis over the longer term starting with the NTM - same as the analysts and the Company. In fact as TSSZ mentioned - the POO is higher now than it was a month or so - what's not to like !

lets hope your right though on top of this I suspect we will need incremental news flow which I think we can expect over the coming weeks / months.

25p - that's nearly 25% up by the end of the week. What do you think is going to drive that?

Jodo,

There was no argument - I was just doing my usual fact checking. I'm not sure who you are saying is "expecting much less" - I think CaneToad is pretty positive on i3e and i'm still pretty bullish.

With the run i3e have had it seems obvious that i3e have narrowed the valuation gap relative to some peers and I think this in part explains the recent SP action being less than some expected after the farm in news - however, I also think that i3e has superior growth catalysts relative to many peers and I expect a further narrowing of the valuation gap as well as possibly a sector rerate which should add further impetus to the SP.

Using i3e's YE production guidance (which I think is too conservative and will be beaten) - my estimate is that 23p put s us on par with the average in Nuttalls fund but imo we deserve a higher than average rating. Guestimating and using the top 25% percentile value for EV/FCF - that puts us at about 30p.

So a near term (next month or two) target for me is 30p assuming oil & gas prices remain supportive and if we get really good news coming out of Serenity (and possibly Simonette) the the target goes up.

GLA

Of course to get a fuller picture you would need to look at various metrics but by far the most important in the current environment is anything using FCF and probably EV - cash generation is king!

As far as FCF being misleading due to decline rates - I don’t agree with that at all - Nuttalls calculation of FCF takes into account maintenance Capital which takes care of decline rates. I3e’s definition does not but I adjust for it in my spread sheet for I3E so I can compare to Nuttalls funds.

I was being diplomatic - your original post said that I3E is cheaper than anything you’ve seen in Canada or Nuttalls portfolio - which to be more accurate is a 100% incorrect.

I do think though that In boxers terms I3E is amongst the best pound for pound fighters in the division and with better prospects than the average company in Nuttals portfolio which represents some of the best names in Canada.

With regards to some of Nuttals stock having 5 bagged or more - I think this is correct but not an apples to apples comparison with I3E. In the depths of Corona with rock bottom oil prices- some of his stocks with a high debt load we’re looking at bankruptcy and priced accordingly - I3E because of timing and backing by U.K. funds was not in this position so it’s not surprising that they have outperformed I3E on a 12-18 month basis. However in the last 6 months I3E has reversed this trend.

Jodo,

Good question and i'm not sure that the statement on valuations is 100% correct - looking at the following chart from Eric Nuttalls twitter - whilst i3e is cheaper than Nuttalls average stock - there appears to be 5 stocks as cheap or cheaper than i3e and I suspect they are in his fund or if not at least on his radar.

https://twitter.com/eri****tall/status/1498672686058426369/photo/1

(you may have to retype Eric Nuttall - no spaces as this site tends to block out part of the link)

VMAX,

I may have misinterpreted part of your post (not the cherry bit) - trading is quite difficult to make money consistently - not many people do and to trade in an out of I3E around the dividend is an especially bad idea IMO. How many people correctly predicted the SP reaction to the farm out news?

You are indeed old (i’m guessing) and wise !