Member Info for tonynorstrom1

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/071122-west-canada-spot-gas-prices-plummet-as-production-soars-to-16-year-highs

Record production and annual maintenance on the transcanada pipeline compressor stations hampering export to the US.

for ease of calculation - I used the market cap i.e 100m/23m = 4.34 and likewise for i3e 300/323. The ratio of the two numbers is almost 5:1.

This ratio will be the same if you calculate on a per share basis - my point being that since the market cap of eog is only 23m - you get 5x the potential exposure to serenity.

The Q4 update also took a long time - that was a pretty decent report but the best stuff was in the post period update which in my opinion is why they issued relatively late.

I can only guess that they are doing the same here - I know there are a number of third party wells to come in and also the production data from the Simonette Well but regardless the update has to be due anytime now.

I would just like to add a couple of comments on demand destruction - I don't want to be guilty of misleading anyone:

1) If anyone has read the recent articles i've posted and in particular the link to the Eric Nuttall / Energy Aspects Podcast - its quite clear according to these experts that not every recession / slow down leads to a reduction in oil demand - in fact many do not.

2) However, this is not quite the same thing as saying that not every slow down / recession leads to a fall in the Oil Price - the correlation here seems to be a little stronger and i'm currently try to understand this apparent disconnect. I have my own explanation and I have forwarded this same question to an Industry insider to get an explanation and confirm or otherwise my thoughts.

Bottom line is that if your invested in equities including Oil Companies - you should tread carefully in a recessionary environment - make sure you do you own research and make a sensible decision. Top slicing may not be a bad idea although as things stand today - its not something i'm considering until the Serenity Well is drilled.

Another thing - the BOE is forecasting a lengthy recession in the UK (4-5 Qtr's). Most of the new demand for Oil is coming from Asia so you need to be studying the data their and not necessarily what's happening in the UK if your trying to figure out how this is going to impact your i3e shares.

Anyway GLA and DYOR !

Stas20 - looks like you might have lost your bet !

" What is clear is that oil has always retreated from my analysis." - maybe your analysis is wrong. I suggest you listen to the podcast with Eric Nuttall and Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects. There's a link on Erics Twitter Page at the very top.

I think you need to re-read the post and understand what you are reading.

Justbe,

Lets say they prove up £400m worth of reserves - 300 to i3e and 100 to EOG. Divide by the respective market caps and calculate the value per £ of market cap attributable to each company.

it works out at 89p for i3e and £4.34 for EOG

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-global-natural-gas-crisis-is-coming-to-north-america

A great read and explains why the Authors think North American Gas Prices have to rise and coincidently for the same reason why Oil supplies are very likely to remain tight (US shales best years are over)

In addition Canadian LNG will be online within the next couple of years . Can you think of any Gas Producers in Canada that might benefit?

As an aside - took most of my dividend and decided have a little wager on EOG - it has nearly 5x the torque on Serenity.

I'm in the same boat as you Jezzo - massively underwater to begin with and averaged down - now a big big winner, juicy dividends and the party is just getting started recession fears aside.

When someone raises doubts and comments on the SP - its always good to go and check the data. I used the interactive chart feature on HL and plotted i3e against Kelt, Surge Energy, Gear Energy and Tamarack Valley - i3e out performed all 4 over the last 3 months !

So yes whilst many Companies have taken a knock with recent recession fears - some companies are doing better than others.

good news is always needed - not sure "its needed fast to offset negative doubts". If Oil pulls back - it pulls back. As i stated yesterday and what my numbers show is that i3e's growth is sufficient to offset a certain degree of pullback in the oil price and maintain revenue / dividends.

I dont understsnd why i3e have to be one of the last to report especially as their update is just that - a 2 - 3 page update v their peers in Canada who have to produce full financials. However, they have been delivering so why do you have doubts:

1) One of the 1st companies to pick up assets in Canada at the bottom of the cycle
2) One of the 1st Oilers in Canada to pay a dividend
3) One of the 1st oilers if not the first to pay a monthly dividend
4) One of the 1st oilers to expand their capital program

Consistently ahead of the game - lets hope that the execution continues and they don't disappoint this time round.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/energy-prices-have-dipped-but-oil-stocks-are-still-a-buy-investor.html

what am I going to do with my fat dividend today:

EMO
EOG

or some more i3e - hmmm?

"India's oil demand is projected to rise at the fastest pace in the world to reach 10 million barrels per day by 2030, from 4.9 million barrels per day in 2021."

https://www.ibef.org/industry/oil-gas-india#:~:text=Crude%20oil%20consumption%20is%20expected,barrels%20per%20day%20in%202021.

Given that they only produce about 1m bbl per day - quite a tail wind for exporters !

@eri****tall 11h
Oil down hard today on weak "implied" gasoline demand (DOE data). Wasn't it just last week that all the refiners said they were seeing "no indication of demand destruction"??? How can implied gasoline demand be lower than in 2020 during COVID? Possible bad data???

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-close/not-seeing-solid-evidence-of-demand-destruction-in-gasoline-market-energy-strategist~2495474

WTI averaged over $100 in H1 and even higher in Q2. Its worth bearing in mind that production (i3e) in Q3 is likely to be 10% higher than in Q2 and again 10% higher in Q4 v Q3. So even with WTI down around $90 - revenue in Q3 should be similar to Q2 and higher in Q4 provided oil prices don't sink too much below current levels - a nice downside hedge to have dont you think ?

the secondary listing is Canada not the USA - there're called Canucks - not Yanks !

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/north-sea-oil-duo-move-serenely-onwards-with-partnership-deal-qxdz0973g

anyone able to post the full article?

He does not profess to be an expert on the North Sea but he certainly seems to be one on Canadian Acreages. His highest conviction play at the moment is Surge Energy although he is pretty bullish on i3e also.

There's a site that he shows you on the video below : https://boereport.com

You can go into this site and look at the licenses issued and "Well Activity Map" by Company including i3e. Putting this together with the quarterly updates - you should be able to have a pretty good stab at the Q2 production numbers. They closed out Q1 at 20,200.

I estimate that they should close out Q2 at over 22,500 and perhaps a little higher if the Simonette well is brought online prior to the end of June.

I noticed that quite a few Canadian Companies released 2nd quarter updates last week including Surge, Tamarack Valley, Baytex and many others and these include full financials - quite why it takes i3e so long I'm not sure. I think we may have got the update today but for the public holiday in Canada. It will be a little bit frustrating if we don't get tomorrow - we need something new to read.

Talking about reading - take a look at the attached Video. Shubham Garg shares his data Sources. There's some great resources here.

Shubham is excellent - a bit like Doc Jones but without the attitude / thin skin. In fact I think Shubham is probably more knowledgeable on Oil Stocks. I think Doc's area of expertise is more skewed towards mining.

https://youtu.be/pJ6RnWHCjrY

A couple of interesting podcasts courtesy of @Darcyslaw on the CEO Website.

https://podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/chuck-yates-needs-a-job/id1536448009?i=1000571357137

https://podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000571450694

Couple of key take aways:

1) It takes decades to phase out commodities - even those more toxic and less useful than Oil / Gas
2) Demand likely to grow for Oil and Gas for the next decade or more before a multi decade decline
3) Pricing likely to stay strong even during the decline phase due to tight supplies / investment
4) Mega projects difficult to get off the ground due to financing / fear of what future demand looks like.

Its something that I've mentioned several times before - i3e is in the sweet spot:

1) low cost, low decline wells that can be internally funded through CF.
2) Hundreds of drilling locations in prime Canadian Acreage - low cost wells with short development timelines - wells can be drilled and put into production in a matter of months.
3) Conventional Oil with below average carbon intensity
4) Multiple high impact catalysts including Serenity - the timing of which is looking to be more fortuitous by the day.

I will have lost my each way bet if i3e don't issue an update today which I'm expecting to be a humdinger. But if not today then surely next week.

https://youtu.be/GKTtOcL11Fo

Maybe not everyone caught this - an update by Shubham Garg done in April on i3e. A lot of really good stuff some of which many will not have seen before.