Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Serif,

Thanks for the response although a little pedantic imho - as one other poster put it here - its not really about the numbers , but what the Wressle FCF can do which I think is right. Wressle is 300 bopd - even if you assume they quadrupple production no one is getting rich - however Serenity is a different story and perhaps later on some of the other assets

1) Have you looked at the Tennyson report ? They model revenue from 2021 through to 2025 - i've taken the opex number from this report which is around $18 / bbl and applied against 300 bopd so accurate enough for my purposes

2) I have not modelled EOG based on one days oil price - however the numbers I was looking at was for the current period in the Tennyson report i.e. 2023 which they clarify as July 22 through to July 2023. The oil price they use is $110 / bbl - Brent is currently $93 so is modelling at $110 reasonable - maybe but the fact is Brent is currently around $93.

As far as me modelling i3e at $100 WTI - I change the model all the time but typically im trying to reflect the average price in the current calendar year which Jan 22 to Dec 22 - so far WTI has averaged $100 in this period though it is currently sitting much lower so not an apples to apples comparison although I will adjust the model to reflect Oil and Gas Prices for the full year.

3) Agreed - do your own research and form your own opinion !

4 & 5 I will listen again but he definitely says a year or two to bring on Pstones. There's some nuances and detail I need to understand on the gas handling but again I don't think this moves the needle much in terms of significant shareholder returns - its all about Serenity imo.

Selfish,

You should not be taking the moral high ground - if you go back and look at the original posts - it was you and botox that turned this personal - I played the ball - you and botox along with a couple of others played the man.

Condescending attitude - I don't think so - not my fault if certain SH's here cannot be bothered to do basic research and actually read Company Reports, Presentations and Broker Notes. I don't do ramping or deramping - i like to think I stick to the facts.

SH's should always do their own research - otherwise they will be lost trying to sift through some of the garbage peddled by certain posters here.

Selfish,

I3e is not my BB and this is not yours. I’m a shareholder here too so just as much my Company as yours. I have not attacked EOG - I just like stick to the facts and not try to mislead fellow investors by either over ramping or deramping a share. Please point out where you think I have unfairly attacked eog or posted something misleading - I’ll be happy to retract otherwise sit down and take a chill pill.

I’m not too concerned about Boltox posting on any BB - his posts speak for themselves and done nothing more than demonstate what a muppet he is.. Better ignored including here if SH’s are interested in learning anything useful.

BoomBoom - It was tongue in cheek - have you seen what Boltok has been posting on the i3e forum.

i3e's finances are very healthy the +$90m capital program is being paid out of cash flow and Management are Projecting a minimum of $66m of unencumbered cash at year end. At $100 WTI - i model it at more - so no worries there.

I've asked the guys over at EOG whether they can come and collect him and put him back in his cage.

This is what my review of the available data / reports tell me:

Wressle & Associated Fields
------------------------------------

1) Production 300 BOPD
2) EBITDA at $6.9M though Tennyson have run the numbers at $110 Brent. At current prices, I have it nearer $5.5M. I also think Tennyson have way underestimated SG&A
3) Year End cash (July 2023) $9m although I think it could be less due to above
4) *****tone – drilled but wont be put into production for a “year or two” as per Simon Oddie in todays interview.
5) Also no mention of the flaring limitation and gas handling facilities – is this still going to happen ? Where is the additional production coming from that some were touting earlier ?

Irish Offshore Gas field (Inishkea)
--------------------------------------------

1) 1.5 TCF Prospect (Best Case)
2) 10 KM North west and down dip of Corrib – separate structure
3) Slightly more than 1 in 4 chance of success – those that have been banking the dollars already need to figure in this in (Tennyson June Report)
4) No timeline for a farm in

Serenity
--------------

1) Oddie thinks it’s a better than 1 in 2 chance of success with a downside hedge of already having proved reserves of 2.5mmbbl net to EOG. I think he’s right – almost seems a no brainer and should tag onto the Tain Development.
2) Based on the above – its all about Serenity. Without it - it could be a slow road ahead for EOG unless a farm in partner suddenly jumps out the woodwork for Inishkea.

Having said that - looking at the poor state of i3e’s finances – Serenity better happen soon otherwise the Project may get canned – have you seen the rubbish Boltox is posting on the i3e Forum.

I’ve been asked whether someone here can call him back and put him back in his cage - please !!

Morroco – location location location and in any case looks like it will be down the road.

Boltox - please explain.

i3e has about $11m in FCF each month EOG has about $20k - why would i3e have to have a massive raise at 15p (it wont) Where would that leave EOG ?

Also a Company with an EBITDA of say $150m is in a much better place to weather a recession than one with say $5m - that's just simple maths - fixed costs as a percentage of revenue are going to be so much higher.

You have zero credibility here and all you are achieving is demonstrating your ignorance - get a life or as Doc Jones would say - go fish !

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/WTI-Stops-Slide-As-API-Figures-Show-Major-Gasoline-Draw.html

Bit of support for Oil after last weeks reports.

Boltox - to say that - you would have to know what you are talking about and you don't. If you are really interested in the decom costs - you could look it up in i3e's latest report. What I can tell you is that run at $110 per barrel which is they same number used by Tennyson to calculate EOG's 2023 EBITDA - the liability is less that 1 years FCF so very manageable and paid out over the lifetime of the wells which is 10 years or more.

Just in case anyone thought boltock had anything sensible to say - he's just gone onto the i3e and bashed i3e - posting non-sense.

I have not done that here - I have a small holding (200,000 shares) and was merely trying to understand the investment story aside from Serenity. I've read the last Company report, Tennyson Report and listened to the CEO here along with the last couple of presentations - so I probably done a bit more research than Boltock !

Anyway good luck to shareholders here and i will try to keep it a bit more civil.

hey guys - Boltok is the idiot I was talking about from the EOG board. His posts speak for themselves !

boltock,

you were quoting me on this board in June as some sort of authority on i3e and now are abusive presumably because I don't ramp eog like you. I've had a look at your posting history - looks like your new to Oil and Gas and by the quality of your posts do no research or have any notable expertise - you just parrot a few sound bites.

On what basis do you think i3e will go to 8p - I'm interested to hear your thoughts or are you just walking on your hands and talking through the other end.

If Serenity comes in - which will obviously be very good for both Companies - i3e's dividend could be 8p in a couple of years you muppit - try posting a bit of original research / insight instead of just 8p by next month rah rah rah !

The Stena Don is still on location at or very close to Serenity - there's a supply ship close by also - destination Stena Don !

I'm not sure why it would be so close to the field being supplied more than 2 weeks earlier than the projected Spud date - are we going to get a surprise ?

DPOW - targets are as you say just targets.

If you listened to Eric Nuttals last Podcast - "all Canadian Oilers are extremely cheap - You will probably make money on any one of them however the secret to superior returns is selective stock picking" paraphrasing a little but that was the jist of what he had to say.

IMO - three ways to make money on i3e shares:

1) Sector to re-rate. So far it hasn't but Nuttall seems to think it will after the Dividends and Share buy backs start kicking in.

2) i3e to grow production faster than than its peers - it seems to be doing this. Lets see what the Q2 update tells us.

3) Serenity

i3e's share price has stood up pretty well so far and done better than many of its peers - certainly the ones i have cross checked - patience is needed as you say. Also who knows how the looming recession will impact the sector - i3e has sufficient scale and no net debt which make me think it would weather a storm better than most.

Interesting tweet from Shubham Garg in yesterday on US shale with data that he thinks demonstrates that peak US shale is upon us. If this is correct - this will be a key support of Oil and US Gas prices.

Billsuffolk,

Not sure you’ve figured anything out and why are you peeing on your chips - it makes no sense?

What you should be trying to figure out as a potential investor is why Wressle is going to be huge - ask Boltok. Does he really believe this or is he trying to drawing in gullible investors like you.

Serenity I understand and as I said at the start of the thread is the main reason I invested here as it has 5x the torque as compared to I3E - so not sure why you started peeing on your chips though?

The Irish gas assets I need to learn a bit more about but no one here apart from GeoChem seems to understand much about them - certainly not their value.

Veryhappybunny,

You are free to say what ever you want and I think you have already said enough to indicate that you are not as clued up as you think you are.

I overstated Wressels production - as per last presentation it is 300 bopd - not bad and pays the bills.

However, as a reference i3e has about 20,000 boepd and a forecast FCF of over $100m - that said, it still sought partners to develop Serenity so that on an all weather basis, it had a robust business plan and not over extend itself on any one project.

You think that with production of 300 bopd (ok double it 600) that eog could self fund Serenity or development of its Irish Sea Gas assests - nuts - absolutely f-c-ing nuts. And remember - this is with oil at around $90 per bbl. Have a look what things look like at $80 or $70 per bbl. EOG has no scale - in a down turn - the situation would look decidedly shaky.

You may say one dimensional - I say head in the clouds - you've not looked at the numbers.

Boltok,

Not worth debating with anyone that cannot back up the ramping - totally agree - were on the same page !

Boltok,

Not meaning to be provocative - but Wressle is worth about 400 bopd - not a lot in the grand scheme of things. "Wressle alone will be huge" - what will it be and do you have a reference.

Its a nice little cash cow but from what i have seen - its looking at incremental production growth - what have I missed ?

SelfishMcNimby,

I think most rational people would conclude that if you could buy something that has a 50/50 chance of being worth £2.5bn then logically it would be worth much more than £25m. You dont have to e a genius to figure that out.

Conclusion - you have no idea what you are talking about !

SelfishMcNimby,

I don't think so - I don't think you have bothered to read any of the previous posts properly !!

And potentially - what does that mean - is that money in the bank? Do your research and then come and lecture people !!