Member Info for tonynorstrom1

"Ah fair enough SH, I wasn’t aware that was standard procedure. It would be nice to get a reason and also a likely timescale (surely it won’t take them the full 60 days) but I won’t hold my breath!"

Someone with the name Pauldrayton said this on the RKH board a short while ago- what are the odds, well dear me how ironic ! Anyway - he seems to think timescales and keeping shareholders informed is pretty important.

Coincidently - there is a Pauldrayton on the RHK board - he is doing lots of speculation on various issues - perhaps you could pass on your views in regards the futility of speculation !

Plus I don't accept your comments on reporting - there are plenty of Canadian peers on the TSX who report on a much tighter schedules every quarter and have to produce full financials (typically a 12-15 page report) as apposed to i3e which is merely an update with far less information (3-4 pages). A few of them produce a monthly report and are of similar size to i3e - its down to discipline imo. i3e a not a mom and pop corner shop selling candyfloss - they have substantial production and revenues in excess of $300m - so for me no excuse - sloppy imo.

thanks for those comforting words Paul - some though I think would prefer reporting on a more regularized schedule - it cuts down on speculation.

Well that's great - does that mean shortly tomorrow, shortly next week or just now ?

And by the way another Gas Well (yes gas well - like we need another gas well) was spud on the 9th Aug in the Willesden Green Area with another one licensed to be spud some time soon.

Tovoc - thank you.

Just for clarity - referring to EOG's July's presentation and the graph on slide 5 (East Midland and Cleveland Upside). Production is showing as peaking at 465 boepd in 2024 - this is the monster / upside that is being discussed here along with the gas if and when a pipeline is built?

If there is anything else - why's it not discussed in the presentation? Where is this 2 BCF of gas that Oddie talks about ?

https://www.europaoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20220706-Proactive-FINAL.pdf

GreyPanther,

What do you think the gas flow is at 1500 bopd should they put the pipeline. Bit of a surprise they have not started already - worried that the revenue from Gas would not justify the cost of a 600m pipeline or is it a permitting issue ?

Boom Boom - I think you will find Oddie actually said "could deliver $250m" net value to EOG (actually $273m in their presentation).

However their are a couple of things to factor in:

1) Its based on a best case as opposed to a mid or low case scenario.
2) Its also based on 69mmbbl of recoverable reserves which will probably require more than one well to prove up. On a positive note they use a recovery factor of 35% and past history says this could be over 50% in the Captain Sands.
3) Importantly its also calculated on $15.8 / boe. Shareholders can do their own research as to whether this number is realistic based on recent data.

Proved Reserves are estimated at 2.5mmbbl net to EOG so you work out a range of likely scenario's

When I looked at Q4 and the delay issuing the report - they only thing I could see was the period update was ok / good but the post period update was much better so my guess was that they delayed the report to bulk it up with post period events.

Thats what I think they may be doing here. I3e have said that the Capital Program is weighted towards H2 and I dont see as many Canadian Drilling licences / drill activity as I was thinking -so thats my thoughts.

Special dividend - maybe - but if I were in their shoes I would be waiting to see how oil and gas prices look over the next few months.

Also - what about another farmin pre-spud - Repsol ?

your right Nomad - puzzling and frustrating - they should have a fixed cut-off - anything not captured goes into a subsequent report - finished! They must have a very specific reason for holding off - lets hope its good.

Repsol Sinopec are still mulling over Tain which is only a +/- 10m bbl field. FID now pushed back to Q1/Q2 next year. My guess is that they did that to wait on Serenity and see what kind of development is required i.e. a standalone development or one that ties back to the Bleo Holm.

If they were to buy i3e today at 45p - they almost get Serenity for free - if they wait for drill results and in a sucess case i3e could be worth a lot more.

But I think your right - any Company considering a buyout would probably wait until results. Personally, im not hoping for a buyout - I would like to see what i3e do with Serenity, Simonette and Clearwater .

I agree Gusto - In theory they could have released about 3 weeks ago - its only an update after all as opposed to full financials provided by all i3e's Canadian peers some of whom did release 2-3 weeks ago.

There's got to be a reason for the relatively late report - lets hope its good - we will find out in the coming days i'm sure.

Maybe its the +45p bid GGG was talking about- The North Sea is one of Respsols area of strategic focus - they also have assets in Canada - would a buyout make sense ?

Good find Joe

where did you find the reference to the new well - 13/24a-B2Y. When I plug it in the link you provided - it comes up blank, however the old well you referenced comes up as spud in 2020.

What your saying makes sense - I just cannot verify it from the links in your post.

Serenity if you look at the i3e map is primarily north and a fraction west of blake whereas the Stella Don is at approximately the correct Northing but a little bit east of where I would expect it just looking at the i3e maps - do you have the coordinates of Serenity..

Either way it is very close to Serenity.

They have bought into the Serenity field. If the planned well is a duster -‘they still have a share of the proved up reserves!

GGG,

Would be interested to here your updated thoughts on EMO if you are so inclined - they have a lot more drilling results and things have moved on since you last looked.

I would not pay much attention to broker reports - they always appear to overhyped - look at WHI's fair value estimate for JOG as an example. I personally think the value will be closer to the figure you quote - however, recent actual data would be the best guide - I just don't have any.

$4 to $5 was some time ago and also depends a lot on the status of the development. Oil prices were probably lower then but again the ESG pressure was also less !

Boltok for anyone that doesnt know what ramping i3e's partner on Serenity - EOG.

Anything that applies to i3e would surely apply to EOG (ref De-Commissioning, Inflation, low oil prices etc) - surely. Yet he is strangely silent on EOG ??

Ignore - any posters that clearly don't know what they are talking about !!

Decommissioning liabilities is worth a look but I would remind fellow SH's of the following:

In Canada, i3e follow the government of Alberta’s Area-Based Closure program, which ensures i3e abandon between 4% and 7% of its inactive well stock every year, offsetting any potential huge decommissioning balloon at end of life. In addition as you may recall 6 months back - i3e offloaded about 50 low production and inactive wells to axiom energy reducing its decommissioning liability.

One of the advantages of having 22,000 boepd of low cost, low decline wells is that i3e's liabilities including Decommissioning are well covered. In fact i3e does not have any real liabilites other than decommissioning as it is net cash positive - so I only see a strong balance sheet with a dividend covered multiple time over.

Ark87,

I'll keep it short as we are off topic - however as i3e are late reporting and there is not much original to talk about - I think we can be excused.

1) He bought the majority of his EMO stake at 25c so at CAD 1.00 its still a 4 bagger on this portion of his investment. Its true that the stock was overhyped and went all the way up to $4 and back and he bought additional shares on the way up but he's still substantially in profit albeit his halo has slipped a little. I made money back then (trading) and im in now with a view to holding for the longer term. Its and interesting stock and anyone looking to go green - its worth investigating.

2) Its true he produced that excellent report on i3e and then sold out way too early - I think at around 10p - so he left a lot on the table and in hindsight was a mistake - he still made 30%. With GASX - your partly right - its not been flat but its been up and down and the story has been behind schedule but is starting to unfold now. Full disclosure - I own about 70,000 shares and currently am about 6% down.

I think if you had a choice between i3e and GASX now - imo i3e would be a good choice but I think GASX could do quite well in the next year or two. Not investment advice - as always DYOR !!

DOC Jones - I can understand people being upset because he outlines his buy thesis and his research is usually top notch - however we are hearing it after he has already bought his position. Naturally he doesn't give you advance warning when he sells out which is what he did with i3 when I called him out publically. I dont think he operates a pump an dump scheme - however, because of the timing and dynamics describes above - it can seem like that - only goes to demonstrate that you must DYOR - always !!

Changing subject briefly - I was going to say the only other Oil & Gas stock I own is GASX on the TSX but its not - I used last months dividend to buy a small stake in EOG which I think is an interesting punt on Serenity.

However, getting back to GASX which was a Doc Jones pick - the CEO has actually started to engage SH 's on the CEO platform - similar to this one. Interesting to see if posters can squeeze any useful information out of him. I know one or two people here followed him into a couple of stocks.

From memory and I could be wrong - they don't normally give a definitive spud date - they've nomally had a forcast like "end of August to Early September" and then the next thing you typically see is an RNS saying the well has been spud.

Simon Oddie in an interview a couple of days ago said very early September - lets see whether he knows more than the average i3e shareholder. It seems strange though that the Stella Don should be at or close to station being supplied 2 or more weeks ahead of the spud - would it not make sense to be loading up at port or close to port and then sail out a few days before ?

Stas20 - so you would not take 45p if it was offered now - its nearly a 60% premium to the current SP. One thing ive learned following Canadian Oilers and the Commentary from Insiders such as Eric Nuttal is that Oil Companies are sitting at about a third of historical valuations relative to CF / FCF so investors may have to recalibrate expectations - if it were 6 or 7 years ago and we were sitting in the same position we are now - I would be quite confident in saying we would be at an SP of 60p or more.

Stella Don about 10km north of the Bleo Holm - so it looks like its on station at Serenity.

(As some will recall - the Bleo Holm is the FPSO at the Blake Filed Operated by Repsol Sinopec)

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-1.4/centery:58.2/zoom:10