Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Thanks to Shubham Garg from WhiteTundra for providing the figures

26-Aug-22------FCF----COMPANY
Expensive------4.6-----Rubellite
Cheapest------45.8-----PetroTal Corp
Mean-----------22.08---Journey Energy
Median---------20.7----Grand Tierra
i3e---------------35.1----i3 Energy (4th Cheapest out of 60)

All calulations done by Shubham for +/- 60 Canadian Companies he follows on the Canadian Exchange. - I've picked out the highest, lowest and included the mean and median. His calculations include an adjustment for any announced Capital Programs. I've not checked all his numbers but my spreadsheet kicks out the same result for i3e

If we were valued at the median FCF - I3e would be at 46p.

(I think we are better than the mean company with net cash, above average reserve life index, above average acreage (Simonette & Clearwater) and Serenity. This is all in my opinion only but I will look at a couple of Companies around the median to see how they Compare on a couple of other metrics aside from FCF yields.

Stas20,

A bit of an optimistic take on things me thinks:

1) it’s not 119% q on q - it is q1 2022 v q1 2021
2) NOI was already forecast at slightly higher so if it was going to explode - it would have happened earlier and in fact the SP has made a decent move over 6 months.
3) That said - I thought the SP held up very well today on above average volume despite the NOI being guided down - very strong!!
4) Better things to come !

GGG,

Canadian O&G Companies don't use NOI - this is unique to i3e - they typically use a number called "funds flow" or "adjusted funds flow" which I think is NOI with some other cash charges deducted such as SG&A.

Shubham Garg will be shortly be issuing an updated spreadsheet (incorporating q2 results) which he calculates the FCF yield for all 50 odd oil and gas Companies in Canada.

When he does that - I will share the high, low and mean values on here for Comparison to i3e.

Serenity - yes your the first to mention it I think although probably not gone unnoticed by many. We'll find out if Simon Oddie is equally well informed by i3e as us PI's because he was very clear in saying that he expects a spud in the very early days of September.

CMCC - here are my thoughts:

Disappointing / below my expectation – however on reflection not as bad as it looks and probably a Q2 blip with normal service resumed in Q3.

Bad News
------------
1) Missing May forecast NOI by 17%.
2) Not putting as many wells into production as I think the market and many here including probably i3e were probably expecting.

I don’t think inflation and lower Oil / Gas Prices fully explain the NOI downgrade - IMO a contributing cause was a way optimistic Q1 update – WTI was $76 at the start of the year, it was about $105 at the time of the Q1 update and is still averages about $100 for the year to-date. Gas is a little bit more complicated, however, if I use WTI $100 & CAD 6.00 – I get nowhere near NOI $241m even allowing for the lower than expected production numbers. I don’t know how i3e got to the NOI $241 number.

Good News
-----------------
1) The 6 or 7 wells not put into production should go on stream in Q3/EarlyQ4 and this will make a significant difference as some of the wells are heavily liquid weighted
2) Increased liquid weighting Q2 v Q1 and will make a big difference.
3) Shut in production presumably comes back on line shortly
4) There are an additional 3 wells that are spud not mentioned in today’s update that should come into production by early Q4 including a second Simonette Well which i3e have intimated should come on steam at 1000 boepd or more (heavily liquid weighted)
5) $200m NOI is still a very good number and still makes i3e competitive with Canadian Peers with upside to come – I just think Q1 was a bum projection.
6) More wells to be Spud in Q4 not referenced in any of the above.

Conclusion – A better update than it first looked which should be confirmed in Q3 update / post period notes in H1 results. WHI have reconfirmed their price target with a possible upgrade to come and I also see nothing here that changes my projections and of course it could get even better with a good result at Serenity – I’m holding.

GLA and DYOR and form your own opinion.

No Hotchip they're not:

Ramper - when someone tries to persuade people that shares are worth more than they really are by posting false information usually for their personal gain / agenda

De-Ramper - opposite of the above.

I have no issue with someone offering positive or negative views as long as they are based on facts.

Serenity is classified as having contingent resources by i3e's CPR which basically means additional work (in this case an appraisal drill) is required to prove up commercial reserves.

The interesting thing about CPR's - the results / conclusions with the same data set can be subtly different depending on who does the report i.e. its possible that another reserves auditor may have booked some reserves.

Certainly EOG seem extremely bullish and have made the statement that they believe there is a commercial development possible even before the drill. In their July Presentation - they set the threshold at 10mmbbl.

And as a reference Tain has in the order of +/- 10mmbbl of reserves and the planned development is forecast to produce in the region of 6000 bopd

https://www.europaoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20220706-Proactive-FINAL.pdf

https://1drv.ms/b/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYMpVVjNH-CcrRoScA?e=Kg0043

Worth a ready - Serenity is covered from page 60 onwards. Most of us will not understand everything in the CPR but it will certainly give you a sense of the CoS and what is left to prove up.

Thank you Badger

Can anyone kindly provide the link to the Simon Oddie presentation - the one where he is standing up infront of a group. Its about 30mins long - link was provided here previously but I cannot find it any more.

https://boereport.com/2022/08/23/germany-touts-possible-major-role-for-canadian-lng-in-shift-away-from-russia/

Timely article on Canadian Gas. Key takeaways:

!) Two LNG Projects planned on the west coast, 1 under construction and scheduled for completion in 2025.
2) One LNG Project under discussion for the East Coast.
3) Gas export capacity to be expanded by 100,000 boepd by the end of the year. This is presumably by optimization of the existing gas network to the US some of which is being undertaken in the current maintenance window.

Stas20 - This is one of the websites you can get a well activity update.

LNG Liquefaction Facility - One is under construction (West Coast - LNG Canada) and a second is waiting approval on the East Coast I understand. Obviously the only way to ship gas to Europe is via LNG and these plants typically take 4-5 years to build. LNG Canada expected to commission in 2025 and I would imagine they would take all reasonable steps to try and fast track these projects.

These facilities obviously come with a loading / offloading jetty to load the LNG tankers for shipment around the world to the various import terminal. The UK has one at Milford Haven - my old Company were involved with the Construction.

DPOW,

Oil & NGL's is 75% of revenues so the low gas price will have a smaller impact on profits than you would think .

Secondly the article you have posted is basically saying that it will be difficult to achieve European and US prices because of pipeline restrictions to get to these markets - it can still distribute gas to the Canadian markets albeit at lower prices but probably at much better prices in the very near future.

I believe also that the current maintenance will also expand the gas capacity by about 10% - not much but should help.

The medium to long term fix for gas prices is the LNG Canada Project which will open up Canadian Gas to the world Market and currently scheduled for completion in 2025.

The other thing that can be done which is being done is that i3e focus on liquids rich wells which they are doing. One Montney well should have already been brought onto production at +/- 1000 boepd (high proportion liquids) and a 2nd one was spud a couple of weeks ago. Also Clearwater is almost 100% Oil so I would expect the update will have a focus on clearwater.

Bladey,

I don't disagree with your take on ADV at all - old Seismic, over amped CEO etc but I think the point has been missed by some. I don't think the poster who brought up ADV (innocently imo) was trying to say it was analogous to Serenity at all - I think they were just making the point that regardless of the COS - there is no guarantee of success which although is obvious - some don't seem to appreciate.

Had he said that he disagree's with the slightly better than 50:50 chance and its more like 95% - im sure he no one would have challenged him and he would have got 20 thumbs up even though that comment would have had no basis.

Stas20 - what do you want to discuss?

"I would point out my post got more likes than yours..........." - Have you thought about running for President ?

This is another reason why i3e should should publish updates on in a timely manner - we would have something to discuss instead of keeping ourselves amused by comparing the size of our Widgets .

I'm pretty much fully invested so no spare cash to put anywhere.

I used my dividend from i3e to buy in here for additional exposure to Serenity and I MAY use the next divided due very early next month to double my stake - full disclosure.

there's no agenda here bunny - someone asked a pretty reasonable question on the the COS and I thought a a couple of reasonable answers were given.

What does seem to be pretty clear is that you try to suppress and shoot down anything you dont like to hear which seems to be anything that doesnt have an ultra positive spin on things.

This is not your BB Bunny - get used to it.

my advice to you is to stop giving people advice on updates - you are clearly in the minority here on this issue.

"..and the update will arrive in due course." - we get it and you have repeated it several times - it adds no value after the first time other than to annoy fellow posters. Your entitled to your opinion - you've stated it several times, not may people here agree so why not switch of the tape?

I think its a pretty reasonable question Bunny - i.e. to get an appreciation of what the chance of success is. Why are you trying to stifle the conversation here?

ADV is as good as an example as any to demonstrate that nothing is certain in drilling and that investors should keep that in mind.

Its a step out well trying to establish 3 things:

1) Oil Water Contact
2) Thickness of the oil bearing sands
3) Extension of the reservoir to the west

I don't think i3e have quoted a CoS other than to say they are confident about the drill - I think I'm correct in saying that its only Oddie that's put a number to it. They do have a lot of data so it will be quite a disappointment if it does not come in but as Patch13 pointed out - take a look at what happen at ADV.