Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Ok I’ll post it Shelfish - I’ll have to get it off my Computer but EOG was roughly 2x the cost of I3E on a FCF multiple basis (NTM).

Also referring to the brokers note - +/- 75 % of EOG’s core value is based on Serenity - remove it and EOG should fall significantly below its current SP.

Also asking someone to justify their numbers is not criticism.

I’ve done it already shellfish but you would accuse me of bashing if I were to say so I’m try to encourage some of the guys pumping the stock to justify their numbers . And I’m not accusing isdeer of doing this by the way but you certainly are very distainfull of anyone that posts anything that is not bullish.

Is deer,

I don’t think you can assume that at all - and why would you make that assumption - just do the calculation based on what EOG actually produce, oil price, opex , SG&A etc and then you will know your significantly inflating the profit.

All sounds good - we won’t have long to find out.

Tovoc,

The full cost of the upcoming drill is £15M funded approximately 50 / 50 by EOG and I3E.

What Boom Boom is talking about is a 2nd Appraisal drill next year and the funding I dont think has openly been discussed by either Company.

Boom Boom,

If they hit Oil - my expectation (and I could be wrong) is that they will move forward with a development.

You are correct though that a minimum two wells is required to prove up the 100 mmbbl recoverable which is something Botox does not appear to understand or at least recognize in any of his off the wall projections.

Even if they just move ahead with a 2nd appraisal well next year - the profit / FCF is somewhere around £5m and the well cost is £7m +. Leaves no working capital for Wressle or anything else. So to say they are fully funded is not quite correct imo.

And if we do strike big oil which we are all hoping for / expecting - then how is the next stage funded. That is the elephant in the room .

Boltox - so let me get this straight - you are saying a fundraise is required for EOG to finance a Serenity Development ?

Tovoc,

I posted a link to the CRP for Serenity earlier today - it included reports for liberator east along with liberator west and Minos High. Anyway - main thing I wanted to point out is it references a Capex figure for Liberator East (Phase 1) - which was planned to be a single well tie back to the Bleo Holm - very similar to Serenity for a small scale development. Capex was forecast at about £100m - it will be considerably more if they discover 100m in recoverable reserves.

Ask Botox how EOG will fund that out of the profits - he's pretty smart - he'll tell you.

attached CPR report for Serenity:

https://onedrive.live.com/?cid=0C8247DCFB29AA84&id=C8247DCFB29AA84%2116809&parId=root&o=OneUp

Serenity starts from page 60 - refer to page 103 for the Reserve Auditors and I3e's resource estimate.

Boltox,

The house broker has a valuation of 21.6p (Unrisked) and 5.4p (risked) for Serenity. How do you come up with 50p ? They share the same broker with i3e so they presumably know how to value Serenity.

Bladderman,

In your opinion - anyone looking for a more balanced view can take a look at what Europa’s house broker(Tennyson) says - their valuation report is on the EOG website.

Boltok,

Where do you get the 14m market cap from - its 29m ??

Boltok,

Please do a little maths and show your fellow investors how you get to a 20p to 40p target - it looks fancifull. Interested to see the maths!

We have a lot of news coming up - just requires a bit of patience now. Interims last year were put out on the 27th September so around a month to wait for these where they will address the 7 wells drilled but not yet put into service in their post period notes.

These wells include:

1 well @ Simonette with production expected to be +/- 1000 boepd
3 Wells @ Open Creak with production expected to be +/- 3 x 750 = 2150 boepd
3 Wells @ Wapiti with production expected to be +/- 3 x 150 = 450 boepd (not 100% sure of the production here)

So personally quite confident that i3e will finish the year at +24,000 boepd. Most if not all the above should be reported in the Interems next month.

In addition to the above there is another Simonette well that Spud 12th July and was not mentioned in the update - Not sure why but this also could add a potential +/- 1000 boepd and also a couple of wells spud in the Falher Formation on the 9th & 22nd August also not mentioned.

So all in all it looks like better news to come.

Hotchip - A massive statement of the obvious don't you think ?

I have an alternate theory - TSSZ seems to be a Contrarian Indicator - whatever he / she says - i3e seems to do the opposite.

We need that poster back - forget his name but does anyone remember when he said "I3e will definitely not be 12p by Friday or anytime soon". I think it was a Monday and by Monday afternoon we were 12p !

Looks like it - I seem to attract the halfwits!

Loz786 : here's the article posted by Pro_s2009 on the ADFVN board:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/serenity-to-get-deeper-test-of-its-prospects-vgxkddr8w The Aberdeenshire-based i3 Energy expects to begin drilling on a North Sea prospect as early as next month. The company finalised a deal with Europa Oil and Gas to share in the cost of the well on the Serenity find only a few weeks ago. The Aim-listed i3, which joined the junior stock market in 2017, wants to gain a greater understanding of the resources on the licence in the Outer Moray Firth, off Aberdeen. Oil was discovered at Serenity in 2019, although estimates of how much is there range from 16 million barrels to 240 million barrels. It is also not known how much of the oil could be recovered, but previous estimates have indicated the potential for about 100 million barrels to be extracted. The new well will test an area that lies west of the initial discovery and will provide both companies with more data. Serenity is close to i3’s existing Liberator discovery, as well as to producing fields such as Blake and Tain. The company, which has producing assets in Canada as well as licences in British waters, said it would consider options for development, such as a tie-back to existing infrastructure or the use of a standalone floating production storage and offloading vessel, depending on the results from the well. The drilling rig will be mobilised in the first half of next month and i3 has said that all other operational elements are moving forward as planned. Majid Shafiq, 58, chief executive, said: “Preparations for appraisal drilling on the Serenity field in the UK are on track for an expected spud in mid-September.” Production for the second quarter of this year was equivalent to 19,502 barrels of oil per day. That was an increase of 116 per cent compared with the same period of last year and up 8 per cent from the first three months of this year.

https://marketsanity.com/kyle-bass-own-these-assets-to-survive-the-new-era-of-stagflation-part-2-2/

Whole interview is worth listening to. At +5minutes in "Golden Era for the next decade or so for Investors in Hydrocarbons"

However - also a warning about an upcoming crash in the markets and the need to have some cash !

Above video was posted by Pro_S2009 on the ADVFN board - I would thank him on his board but he has blocked me so an honourable mention here!

OilGreg - If your going to pump EOG - better on the EOG board no ?

I took a look a quick look at EDR just for giggles - Wressle is their primary asset but it looks like it has a number of near term development uk onshore assets so in my humble opinion its not a like for like comparison if you're just looking at Wressle alone.

Nearly doubling the share count a completely irrelvant fact - i3e holders have been through this in the last 18 months - not many here will agree dilution is irrelevant - its maths - simples !

The NAV of Wressel is on the Brokers note on the EOG website - also on a slide on a recent presentation by Simon Oddie. What investors should keep in mind that many / most Oil shares trade far below there NAV including i3e and JOG for example - thats because near term Cash flow/Free Cash Flow is much more important than reserves in the current environment.

I always say Investors should DYOR - they can then determine for themselves who's talking ****e and who's not.

Prior to the farmin to Serenity - EOG were trading in the 1.5p tp 2p range and then added nearly 400m shares to buy into Serenity. That would indicate the the mcap is not covered by Wressle - not by the market valuation anyway. Also the onshore 2P reserves are valued at 0.6p - so fingers crossed for Serenity !

Can anyone post the full times article ?