We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
You mean a point of care test. We are some way from that yet. The home test kits from what I understand will still need to be sent in to a lab for analysis its just you can perform them at home? Great idea and will increase the number of tests per day. Good news for Novacyt
The antibody and antigen tests serve different purposes. It would be great for us all if we could get a reliable antibody test but it will mean nothing unless we can prove antibodies give you immunity. Unfortunately, we dont have a relaible test yet and are some way off it and there is much debate about getting immunity of any sort post covid infection. This is a vile virus and our best defense currently is the antigen test.
A very simple analysis of share valuations in your comment. Shares are obviously undervalued and over valued that is why the markets are so much fun. Also, sentiment plays a huge part as well as social, political and technical changes. If the world was as you say nothing would move very often when in fact the dynamics are very fluid especially in the current market. I think Novacyt is due a re rating and to the positive side based on order book, current environment, recent RNS and if we want to get technical forward earnings.
Whilst a purchase would be a great exit and is the usual exit, I don't see this happening for two reasons; a) the share price has some way to go yet in a positive direction and any sales may not give shareholder full value and b) selling in the midst of a national crisis in which this company is playing a significant role would be a bad distraction and possibly unpatriotic. I could be wrong. Great RNS and one that completely underpins the meteroc rise the share price has had. This really builds confidence .
Three times sales is not unrealistic at all and is the usual way of valuing similar companies. You would project sales out from 3 years and probably add in retained profit and other IP and good will so the valuation quickly gallops ahead of the current rating. I'm not sure anyone wants the disruption of a takeover at this stage but the shares are certainly not fully valued yet. AVCT is not as strong as Novacyt in my oppinion having researched that business but of course you make your own choices. Always stay where the wind is in your sales is my advice and everything is alligned for Novacyt currently.
Did anyone pick up the sky new article today about NHS staff needing re testing due to false results? If ever there was a case for using a gold standard PCR test in all cases this was it. Interested in other views of course. The current re rating of the share must be a big buying oppotuinity. With production going to 8M a month there will be no shortage of buyers for these tests. This will put earnings on a very sure forward footing and valuation will inevitably track this. I've never quite understood what the cost per test is but assuming at only £8 (and I think this is very low cost) the forward looking sales would be annualised at £720M. Companies of this type are usually valued at 3 times sales so a £2.1B valuation would not be unreasonable moving forwards. A few hurdles to get through but perhaps we should all be looking medium to long term now and certainly not on an hourly basis like many on here. This is not a wild stab in the dark with a phase 2 trial with most likely failure like a number of biotech shares being favoured on here. This is a going concern with a product everyone want to buy, a profitable business and earnings that will ramp up month on month.
This very important. Accuracy is paramount at the moment. No point in rapid tests that are not fool proof. More harm than good. This is what has killed the antibody tests. Thanks for posting.
I have had a good look at the weekend press and re read the RNS last week in the context of the fairly obvious de ramping attempts on here. Clearly the antibody theory of halting the progress of Novacyt is so flawed as not to need any further comment. The vaccine which may or may nor come in the next 12 months is also unfortunately no silver bullet to the immediate situation. The way out of our lockdown and indeed most of the worls is to test, test and test again and hopefully try to isolate outbreaks in the future as well as get a track of the progress of the disease. The steps Novacyt have taken to address the demand are a step change for the company. The last RNS has not been factored in to this share price nevermind any subsequent ones. This buiness will be highly profitable on the back of all the orders and will be in a great position to acquire new businesses and build for the future not just Covid 19. A very positive week ahead I am sure.
The vaccine is still a punt but lets assume against all the odds they pull it off. How does this effect the testing of the Antigen over the next 9 months? The vaccine may give some immunity over a period of six weeks say but it would take 18 months to get to the levels of production to cover even 10% of the population. The vaccine does not negate the need to test for who has the disease andwhere it may be breaking out. Anti body testing we have accepted is not the Nirvana, neither is a vaccine albeit it will be a great step forward.
Just reading the papers and seeing that more testing is gathering pace. The commons select commitee on the virus lead by Jeremy Hunt is lobbying for contact tracing which means a further ramp up in testing. The demand and appetite for testing is oustripping the supply. I can see Novacyt need more collaborations to try and meet some of this demand. despite the meteoric rise of this share, as long as they can keep production going there is no end in sight to the increase in revenues.
Would urge all posters to look up the difference before posting. Also there is no reliable antibody test yet. They have all failed when MHRA tests them. Antigen testing will increase around the world regardless of an antibody test or not. It’s erroneous. Novacyt are very well positioned and have a gold standard Antigen test.