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Https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4469
Published 17Nov 2020
I think the idea that an AZ or any vaccine means game over for NVCT is crazy. The mkt cap is undervalued by any sensible analysis and testing will be huge over the next 6 to 9 months and whilst I think testing volumes will drop back after that, it will continue to be a huge revenue generator for us moving forwards into 2022 and beyond. NVCT will evolve into a broader diagnistic business by then if not already snapped up by a bigger suitor. I would be worried if we were on a PE of 20+ but at around 1 and maybe below that with ever increasing revenues there is no risk at all at this level. I really hope the vaccines do come good. You can wish that and be a NVCT holder - there is no conflict!
A very good point. 2M order would be huge news for a most companies on AIM. What would AVCT do for this kind of revenue.? A whole conference probably! The vaccine news is great, light at the end of the tunnel and that is good for all of us. In the meantime, NVCT will be filling the vaults with gold and building a mid cap sustainable Diagnostis business. I can even feel a divi coming on.
Just digesting today’s and the weekend’s news. It is great news re the Vaccines and I think further positive news re the vaccines will come in the next two weeks. I am left as an investor feeling we are still seriously undervalued. Testing in all forms is going to be with us for the foreseeable and Novacyt will sell everything they produce. Currently they are a Monet making machine. I also feel that we are ahead of the curve in R and D and I very much expect new innovations and strides forwards in testing geared towards taking us back to a normal life. If I were a betting man I think we will nail rapid saliva tests with the accuracy to make this a game changer. I like backing winners. I’ve a tenner on DJ to win the masters and staying here for the long haul.
Interesting post. What are you backing? Rapid tests, lockdown etc. Which COVID related company are you backing ? Why your interest in Novacyt ? Surely not your bag and you have other more relevant investments to follow?
Simple Simon? You are having a giraffe. Very able and smart guy. Your too political on this troublesome. Sir Keir would close the economy down for ever and rely on the money tree. Too much focus on COVID deaths and not enough on non COVID deaths in my view!
I’ve been invested here for some time. I’m a veteran of healthcare investing with a few scars to show for it but some good wins too. Novacyt is different. It has a great revenue stream and really smart R and D. I guess in the long term shareholder value would be gleaned through great earnings, accretive acquisitions etc. I have thought for some time though that a bigger company will scoop this up. It will be a price that is probably sub optimal to that which would be realised if the went alone but nevertheless a very healthy price will be paid if a suitor wants to prize this away from the shareholders. I think a 2.5 bn mkt cap would be on the table.
Need to know if having antibodies gives immunity. Until proven the test is pointless other than to model spread of infection. I think they will serve a purpose over time maybe in 3 to 6 months but irrelevant to need for Antigen testing!
The antibody test serves a different function to the Antigen test. Ask yourself why there is no rush to do them currently? We don’t know yet if antibody confers immunity. It may be some time to confirm this. Antibody testing will be good to survey the level of infection spread. What the world needs currently is to know if you currently have the virus. Only antigen tests do this. The estimate currently is that a maximum of 5 per cent of the population has has Covid. So 3 million ish people with antibodies. Over 60 million who will need to be tested and re tested to see if they have the virus. It’s very simple.
NVCT over sold for sure and will bounce back!
Markets also depend on sentiment and to some extent manipulation. companies can be over values as well as undervalued. My view is that currently this share is undervalued. The issue we have is that this share has matured from being a casino stock like Hemogenyx etc to a sserious long term company that will build a global footprint and offer share holder value not for six hours but six years. Once the holders transition from day traders to more traditional share holders the price will re rate upwards. So, the market has got it wrong currently.