Great post mercman.
It's worth highlighting that Numis are currently putting a value of roughly £1b on our 30% of Havieron (un-risked, currently 15p) and we we still have the other half of the sulphide crescent to prove up, plus add in the breccia, open at depth etc.
Havieron alone could bring us £2b+. Stick in a few others and we could be closer to Spy's £5b-£6b in a couple of years.
But yes, let's get over 15p first.
'So if Havieron is worth £1bn to us at 30% ownership, arguably a few stellar cores from either one of the two immediate projects, could propel GGP into an unimaginable £3bn-£5bn valuation in double quick time.'
Sounds good to me. Newcrest better raise some more cash pronto.
Well, we know deposits the size of Havieron are rare, but if we get any initial visible results similar to Havieron then the share price could go very high indeed. Don't forget all of these are 100% owned by Greatland.
Regarding timings, we started the first drilling campaign on 18/04/18 and had first drill hole results on 25/06/18, but Scallywag is shallower. I would be hoping for around 5-6 weeks of drilling time. So we could be looking at drill results being drip fed from September onwards. September, October, November and December could be huge for Greatland.
- The Rudall licence application covers an area of approximately 65 square kilometres
- It is located 20 kilometres south-southeast of Greatland’s Havieron gold-copper deposit.
- The new licence will expand Greatland’s landholding in the Paterson region from 385 square kilometres to 450 square kilometres.
- The Rudall licence is considered to be prospective for Havieron and Telfer style gold/copper occurrences.
- Once granted, Greatland expects to complete the acquisition of detailed aeromagnetics, ground gravity and surface geochemistry to enhance preliminary targets already outlined within the Rudall licence.
'They know they have to move quick because Newcrest are obviously sniffing around .'
Exactly my thoughts too. The likes of Rio, Newmont, Barrick etc are not going to just let Newcrest run the Paterson either. Newcrest will have to make a move at some point to secure our projects.
Hannam & Partners previously said the following:
'In our view, the most significant potential catalyst over the next 12 months would be the maiden JORC resource, expected in the second half of 2020.'
Someone should let H&P know that we now have 5 high priority targets added into the mix over the next 6 months.
They are really going for it aren't they. They're not just focusing on one or two targets at Scallywag, which I thought they would do. They're initially going for Kraken, Blackbeard and London. All three are the closest to Havieron.
Once the initial phase of drilling is complete at Scallywag they are are then going after Goliath and Los Diablos!
Blooody helll, this is brilliant.
No longer will traders be able to rely on news every 6 weeks. We will have 5 other targets in the mix over the next 6 months.
September - December are going to be VERY interesting indeed.
What was it Gervaise said? Maximise shareholder value? Well done, Gervaise.
'Market cap is huge here. Can see 30s if not 20s next few weeks.'
Based on what? Your research? lol
We have independent valuations that range from £120m up to £900m. I will go with them over all the new clueless vultures that have arrived on here the last few days.
Gandhi, yes my rough/simple calculations should be seen as conservative, but with still so many unknowns, I thought this would be most appropriate.
As you say, based on their applied risk factor we could be looking at 60-90p for just the HGZ... plus the breccia...plus SW area... £1+
£1+ is a long way off, but I’m planning to hang around for at least another 12 months when we hopefully will have had some success at Scallywag and Paterson Range East too.
As I've previously said, I'd be very happy with 8-10Moz for the MRE. H&P said they expect the MRE to include just the HGZ. Approx 24-30p per share based on Numis' valuation.
That will give us a good foundation to then update the resource in 2021 with the breccia and more infill drilling?
'We reiterate our BUY recommendation and raise our price target to 15p based on 0.5x our risked NAV based on 5.0Moz conceptual reserve and US$900/oz peer multiple'
'We have adjusted our conceptual Reserve to 5.0Moz from 5.5Moz to be conservative, loosely based on greater detail provided on the Crescent Zone'.
So, 5Moz equates to roughly 3p per million oz in the HGZ. Pretty much the same as H&P who have said just under 13p and they have practically ignored everything apart from the HGZ.
There are a lot of holes near the possible northern arm. Bodes well.
If the horseshoe continues and we very roughly multiply Numis’ 5m oz by 1.5, we could be looking at 12-15Moz in the HGZ.
3p x 12-15Moz = 36p-45p
Then add in the breccia, whatever is being found in the SW and open at depth...
Nice one, Paddy. I've just put together a quick mockup of how the HGZ could continue.
The first thing I notice is that the new holes in the NW (NW Holes) sit perfectly in line where I would expect the other half of the top of the horseshoe to be. As you say, the northern arm of the horseshoe.
Secondly, I believe the pad you have marked as 'New Westerly' could be to test the breccia in the NW? It feels too far out to be the High Grade Sulphide.
Anyway, interested to hear peoples thoughts.
Noddingdonkey, because we're not stagnating.
Being a LTH you'll know that news at the moment comes every 6 weeks. Over the last 4 weeks we have gone from 10p to 12p today. That is a 20% increase in 20 working days. I personally don't class a 20% gain in 1 month as stagnation.
As a LTH you will also know that in 2019 we were sat at 1.6p for pretty much the whole year even though we had hit world class intercepts at Havieron. That was stagnation.
Depending on a funds criteria, including risk, there's the high possibility that the MRE could be the first catalyst for some to buy in. At this point they will have official figures to work with for the purpose of their own investment case. We could be 20p+, but that's OK if they calculate that there is more upside to come. This figure will continue to grow based on this being Newcrest's first go at establishing a resource figure.
Numis are putting approximately 3p on every million oz in the HGZ. Let's see how that figure increases as we continue the step-outs and our understanding of the deposit.
We could be looking at 10-15Moz in just the HGZ one day?
Then add in the breccia, the step-outs to the SW and still open at depth...
Those that bought in around 11/12p are now getting a bit anxious because they haven't seen any big gains yet. Take a look at the 1 month chart - all good. It's been a week since we joined the AIM 100... Come back in 6+ months and see if we've had more funds buying in.
I agree shroom. After all those months stuck at 1.6p, a few weeks at 12p Is a lot more enjoyable mind?
I go back to Numis’ 15p target, 28p (approx) un-risked, and think how far we’ve already come. 9 rigs turning 24/7, a camp that is growing as fast as the deposit and we’re still only approx half way along, with another 80km of drilling to come.
Announcing a further 80km of drilling a couple of months ago wasn’t half bullish of Sandeep. We can now see why, as the high grade crescent continues to expand into a continuous, larger footprint. It’s an elephant, as they say.
If we’ve got conservative price targets of 15p (28p un-risked), think where we’ll be in 6-9 months with another 50-60km drilled...
Roll on 14.28p.
#GGP; continuing to show underlying buying strength whilst volume drops, this usually precedes a further expansion of volume & move higher. Current range 11.78p-12.80p. If volume arrives, should extend to 14.28p next.